Mo Battered Blues

Ladies and gentlemen, here are the cumulative lines of two pitchers:

 G   IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR  W  L   S  BS   ERA   WHIP
35 39.2  19   5   3   6  41   1  1  2  26   2   0.69  0.64
 5  6.2  13  12  11   2   8   3  1  2   2   1  14.85  2.25

The pitcher on the top line is regarded as perhaps the best closer in the game, dominant and nearly infallible. The pitcher on the bottom is a guy I wouldn't hire to paint my bullpen, let alone anchor it. His line looks like the second coming of circa-1997-98 Norm Charlton, arsonist extraordinaire.

Both lines belong to the same man: Mariano Rivera, the Yankees closer. That five-game sample consists of the five games I've seen him pitch in person at Yankee Stadium this season. Today, he coughed up three runs to the Mets in the 10th inning, the only runs of the ballgame. But that wasn't even his worst outing I've seen--that honor belongs to his May 13 appearance against Baltimore, where he allowed five runs and took a loss. Even in the game he won, June 4 against Boston, he surrendered a two-run home run to Manny Ramirez, blowing the save before vulturing the win. (The other two games, for anyone interested, are April 28 against Oakland, where he gave up a two run homer to Olmedo Saenz to keep things interesting, and June 2 against Cleveland, where he pitched a scoreless five-out save.)

Mariano has allowed three of his four home runs, and given up 12 of his 17 runs in a sample size thar represents 14% of his workload for the season. What in the name of Bobby Ayala is going on?

There are two easy explanations:
1. small sample size
2. Mariano is a vampire

The first explanation is the obvious one. I've watched Mariano get the job done countless times on TV and in person over the past five seasons; he's one of the best closers in history. If he normally pitched like he has when I've been in the ballpark this year, he'd be in another line of work by now, and I would have found a better value for my entertainment dollar by gambling on cockfights.

The five games are a not-quite-random sample; I chose them as (mostly) quality opponents based on their 2000 records. Three of the five are under .500 right now. But collectively, they're at .511, slightly above the .498 winning percentage of all non-Yankees teams in the major leagues this year.

The second explanation... I'm kidding, but only to a degree. While he may not be Dracula's cousin, apparently Mariano's powers are diminished by sunlight. Four of the five times I've seen him this season have been day games. His ERA in all day games this year is 4.29, versus 1.42 at night. This isn't a new trend, either. Here's a chart:

            ERA(n)  IP(n)   ERA(d)  IP(d)
2001         1.42    25.1     4.29   21.0         
1998-2001    1.79   161.0     3.70   80.1

Holy Heathcliff Slocumb! It's like the difference between... well, between night and day! Mariano has been nowhere near as effective during day games, though he's still getting the job done, converting 86% of his save opportunities while the sun's up, against 91% past sundown. Still, this is a disturbing trend whose underlying causes I can only speculate about: Is he simply a night person? Does he have trouble in hot weather? Is his repertoire easier to hit in daylight? Hell if I know--I sure can't hit him. I couldn't hit sand if I fell off a camel, but that's a whole other story.

A postscript: by the time I arrived home from the game and started writing this, the Yanks had announced that Rivera, suffering from an inflammation of his right ankle, will miss the All-Star Game on Tuesday. Joe Torre has named former Yankees reliever Jeff Nelson to the team, righting at least one wrong with his pinstripe-heavy roster (see below) albeit in a very unsettling way.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 7:56 PM Link

Torre's Magnificent Seven

The news that Joe Torre selected seven of his own players to the All-Star Game roster had even this Yankees fan cringing. Taken on their own merits, each of the selections is defensible to some degree:
• Roger Clemens leads the league in wins and is second in Ks
• Andy Pettite is outpitching his 19-win form of last season
• Mike Stanton has been the unsung hero of the pitching staff
• Mariano Rivera is again indomitable, unless he's facing Manny Ramirez
• Jorge Posada is the best offensive catcher in the league
• Bernie Williams tore up June (.450) and has overcome the death of his father to tear his way back to his rightful place above .320
• Derek Jeter... well, the little girls shriek when he comes to the plate. Oh, and he was the All-Star Game MVP last year. Plus he was the MVP of the World Series... that counts for something, right?

Added up, this is a bit excessive, especially coming from a manager not known for excess. Torre made waves when he first selected a middle reliever, Jeff Zimmerman, to the All-Star team in 1999. He made waves last year when he bypassed the Yanks' own Jeff Nelson, whose work had held the bullpen together during the first half. Nelson got into a public war of words with Torre and departed as a free agent for Seattle--where he again has been a deserving candidate. It would have been nice to see Torre take the olive-branch-bearing high road, but he passed up Nelson in favor of his former partner in crime, Stanton.

It's a no-win situation. One would think Torre wouldn't mind giving a three-day break to two relievers (Stanton and Rivera) who have totalled 80 appearances thus far. But last week Torre gently twisted Clemens' arm when Clemens indicated he wouldn't mind a vacation rather than a trip to Seattle. Roger is the presumptive starter--unless of course, the Yanks use him in relief during the weekend series with the Mets (a role Clemens hasn't pitched in since his rookie season, but which Yankee Pitching Coach Mel Stottlemyre blew smoke about the other day).

There's always going to be controversy when it comes to All-Star rosters, starting with the fans' choices. This year, four Mariners were voted in as starters by the fans: Brett Boone, Edgar Martinez, John Olerud, and Ichiro Suzuki. A fifth, third baseman David Bell, was edged out by Cal Ripken. Not that Ripken is playing especialy better than Bell, just that one is a legend on his last lap around the league, the other a good glove man who benefitted from the overzealousness of the hometown fans.

Which is their prerogative, I might add. I'm not a big booster of the All-Star balloting process, but it's a mechanism that does take the Will of the People into account, a rarity in this sport. The game is an exhibition, which means, by definition, that it's for the fans. So if the fans want to see David Bell, who am I to stop them?

The manager's role in selecting the reserves is supposed to balance out the process, but with seven Yanks, the roster looks anything but balanced. Even with the requirement to select at least one member to represent each team in the league--which is how we get Detroit's Tony Clark and the Godforsaken Devil Rays' Greg Vaughn instead of other worthy candidates--Torre could have and should have done better in selecting his squad.

As if there weren't enough Yankees already going, add Luis Sojo to this edition of Pinstriped in Seattle. That's right, Luis Sojo, futility infielder extraordinaire. No, Torre didn't grant him a roster spot. Sojo, popular from his playing days in Seattle, will perform at a charity concert. "Luis Sojo y su Orquesta" features the Man of Leather singing and playing the timbales. Roll over Tito Puente, and tell Joe Torre the news.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 6:50 PM Link

Alive and Kicking in the Minor Leagues

Along with the video of Pirates manager Lloyd McClendenon stealing first base over a disputed play, this is one of the funniest clips of the year. Red Sox farmhand Izzy Alcantara, believing he was being thrown at, kicked the opposing catcher in the mask and then charged the mound before being subdued.

Alcantara was fined an undisclosed amount and given a six-game vacation for his troubles. He's a strange case. Right now he's 28 and tearing up AAA (.344, 26 HRs, 1115 OPS); you'd think the Red Sox could use his bat, given all of their injuries.

But Alcantara is the pawn in the eternal chess match between Red Sox Manager Jimy Williams and GM Dan Duquette. He's forever in Williams' doghouse for one memorable day last summer when he made an error, loafed after several balls in right field, and got picked off base. The guy played so lazily that one expected Carlton Fisk to grab the next flight in for the express purpose of kicking his ass for not playing baseball the right way.

After that incident, Williams wanted him out. Duquette wouldn't oblige--Izzy was out of options and couldn't be sent down without the risk of losing him. Perhaps Duqette hoped to corner the market on 27-year-old righties who could shred AAA pitching but wouldn't hustle once they made the bigs. He ordered Williams to play Izzy, who got only 48 plate appearances in three months, but hit well when he got the chance (.289, 4 HR, 911 OPS).

Izzy was released at the end of last season but has found his way back to Pawtucket to rot on the vine. This incident probably didn't help his cause any. Given that he hadn't already been called up with all of Boston's injuries, I get the sense that Williams would rather lose without this guy than win with him. I'm tempted to say I don't blame him, but then again, I may be biased.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 5:29 PM Link

Dodger Green Gives Me The Blues

With the exception of the Mike Piazza trade, no move the Dodgers have made in the Fox era was dumber than signing Darren Dreifort to a five-year $55 million contract. Dreifort, a 29-year old righthander, has always been long on potential but short on accomplishment. He's got good stuff, and he's a great athlete--he DH'ed in college when he wasn't pitching, and now has 6 major league HRs. But his career high in wins is 13, and his record of 43-52 with a 4.38 ERA (in a pitchers' park, no less) is astounding in its mediocrity.

But with the market for pitching being what it is these days, Dreifort, with the aid of superagent Scott Boras, was able to rob the Dodgers blind. And now it's officially robbery: yesterday it was revealed that he will require reconstructive surgery on his elbow--that's Tommy John surgery, the Big One--for the second time. No pitcher has ever come back successfully from a second Tommy John surgery.

Long-term contracts for pitchers are a sucker's bet. But the Dodgers aren't exactly frugal with their short-term contracts for pitchers either. This is what they're paying for:

Darren Dreifort: 94.2 IP, 4-7, 5.13 ERA  $9.4 mil (5 yr/$55 mil), Tommy John surgery
Andy Ashby:      11.2 IP, 2-0, 3.86 ERA  $6.0 mil (3 yr/$22.5 mil), elbow surgery
Carlos Perez:       0 IP, ---  --------  $7.5 mil (2 yr/$15.6 mil), one pending assault charge

That's $22 million for six wins this season! Looking at it another way, they've committed $93 million for 10 pitcher-seasons and are looking at a return along these lines:
• one horrible year from Perez, and one washout (an improvement unless you like footage of water-coolers being attacked with baseball bats)
• six wins in a half-season worth of Dreifort & Ashby
• at least 2 seasons of missed time due to injury
• another season worth of rehab/kid-gloves treatment between the injured duo.

This leaves a BEST CASE SCENARIO of four-and-a-half pitcher-seasons to get a return on that $93 mil--Kevin Brown money for pitchers who, even on their best day, will never be close to Kevin Brown or any other top-flight pitcher.

And people wonder why I gave up rooting for the Dodgers...

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 11:02 AM Link

Loss of Control

The Yanks' recent acquisition of Mark Wohlers has had me thinking a lot about the handful of players who have suffered similar throwing problems. Both Steve Sax and Chuck Knoblauch were second basemen on my favorite teams during their miseries, and as a fan I suffered right along with them. I never particularly cared for Wohlers, but Rick Ankiel certainly drew my attention with his meltdown last fall.

This article on Ankiel, written by Pat Jordan, appeared in the New York Times Magazine back in February. In examining Ankiel's plight, Jordan makes reference to several other pitchers who suffered similar fates and offers his own insights into Ankiel's problems. While his explanations seem like elementary psychology ("Pitchers who forget how to pitch seem to fear not failure but success. They don't want to face the pressure of the expectations of their success...") they are hard-won: Jordan went through a similar nightmare as a young pitcher, back in 1961. "I forgot how to pitch," Jordan tells Ankiel, "I've been thinking about it ever since."

Prior to reading this piece, I knew Jordan only as another name on a crowded bookstore shelf. But this story sticks in my mind. It's a haunting tale, like a ghost story whose narrator is speaking from beyond the grave, a victim of the same fate. This past weekend, with Wohlers, Ankiel, and Knoblauch fresh in my mind, I came across A False Spring, Jordan's book about his own ordeal. I'll report more about it when I finish reading it.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 10:57 AM Link

Rule #1: Monkeys Are Always Funny

The Rally Monkey is a strange phenomenon. On the one hand, monkeys are always funny (that's my number 1 rule of comedy). On the other hand, when a team's mascot becomes more important than the product on the field, something is amiss. Oh, wait--you said the team was owned by Disney? Well, that explains everything, including the Mickey Mouse brand of baseball the Anaheim Angels have been playing lately.

Angels players apparently griped that the Rally Monkey was overhyped, so when the monkey failed to materialize in the midst of a potential rally, young fans were disappointed. A few days later, when the club celebrated the Monkey's first birthday with promotional clips every half-inning (!), the players promptly got thumped, and pitcher Jarrod Washburn blamed the circus surrounding their lower primate. The team responded by suggesting Washburn go tell it to the Bobble-Head Doll.

Note to Washburn: To catch the Mariners, you're going to need a Rally Monkey the size of King Kong.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 3:09 PM Link

A Different Mark Wohlers

Continuing to bolster their bullpen, the Yankees acquired Mark Wohlers from the Cincinnati Reds. Isn't this:
• the same Mark Wohlers who was at the wrong end of the biggest hit of the Joe Torre era, a three-run shot by Jim Leyritz in Game 5 of the 1996 World Series?
• the same Mark Wohlers who saved 97 games over a three-year span for the Atlanta Braves before experiencing a spooky inability to find the plate?
• the same Mark Wohlers who then spent two years in baseball oblivion, with a 10.71 ERA over 21 innings at the major-league level and almost two walks per inning?
• the same Mark Wohlers who while working himself back into a major-league pitcher blew out his elbow, then rehabilitated himself into a serviceable enough middle reliever to be sought after by the three-time defending World Champions?

Pennant races make for strange bedfellows. So it isn't that surprising that the latest addition to the Yanks roster is so linked to their past. In baseball, as writer Roger Angell has observed, everything connects to everything else. Wohlers's arrival in pinstripes coincides with a time where the Yankees are shopping Chuck Knoblauch. Knoblauch is one player on a short list (Steve Blass, Steve Sax, Mackey Sasser, and Rick Ankiel come to mind) whose first-hand experience with throwing difficulties is in the same league as Wohlers'. Both players were struck by anxiety disorders while at the top of their games, and both have required considerable readjustments in their roles to salvage promising major-league careers. Both are easy targets, whether in hecklers' crosshairs or soft-focus human-interest pages.

Knoblauch has stood in the fire of the New York media, not always gracefully, but he has worked his way back to being judged on the whole of his game. Unfortunately for Chuck, right now the whole of his game is not pretty--a 39-for-206 (.189) slump has left the Yankee offense without their familiar table-setter. For the moment, Knoblauch is fighting for at-bats among an increasingly crowded outfield and fending off trade rumors.

Wohlers seems prepared to stand in the fire as well, saying he would answer all questions about the Leyritz homer and his control probems, and then hopefully move on to doing his job in the Yankee bullpen. His numbers in Cincinnati (3-1, 3.94 ERA, a K/W ratio of 3:1) show that he's capable of contributing. But the tabloid vultures will be circling overhead for at least a little while, and the Bleacher Creatures will be poised for a shower of Bronx cheers should he falter. Say it ain't so, Joe Torre!

But this isn't the same Mark Wohlers. After the nightmare that he has lived through and emerged from, pitching in a pennant race ought to be no big thing.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 3:09 PM Link