Johnson has three Cy Young awards to his credit and deserves a fourth this year after winning 21 games and leading the league with a 2.49 ERA and 372 strikeouts. After taking a loss in Game 1 of the NL Division Series, the knock on him was that he wasn't a big-game pitcher--he'd lost seven straight postseason games. Of course, what few bothered to consider was that his team had scored eight runs for him in that span. And anybody who's forgotten his performance in the 1995 AL Division Series against the Yanks--after winning a one-game do-or-die against the California Angels to make the playoffs, Johnson won his start and then won the deciding Game 5 out of the bullpen--hasn't been paying attention long enough to gain entry into this argument.
Johnson took the loss in Game 1 of this year's Division Series against St. Louis. He allowed three runs, two in the first and one in the third. Not a terrible performance, by any stretch, but it was his worst outing of the post. Since that third inning, he's allowed two runs over a thirty-inning span. He won three straight starts, polishing off the Braves in Game 5 of the NLCS and the Yanks in Game 2 of the World Series. Two of those three games were complete-game 3-hitters. All told, his line for the postseason: 3-1. 1.36 ERA, 39 Ks and only 25 baserunners in 33 innings. Opponents are hitting a mere .165 against him in that span.
Johnson's a lefty, which complicates matters for the lefty-heavy Yankees. Tonight, only Tino Martinez will be in the lineup, while Paul O'Neill and David Justice will sit in favor of Chuck Knoblauch and Shane Spencer. Spencer joined Jorge Posada and Alfonso Soriano as the only Yanks to get hits off of Johnson in Game 2. Randy Velarde, who has hit Johnson well in the past (19-42 entering the series), started at first base in that game, but will be on the bench tonight--look for him to be the first pinch-hitter against Johnson.
The Yanks' best shot at winning this game is to outlast Johnson and hope that they can do damage against the Diamondbacks' soft bullpen. Whether it's twice-bitten Byung Hyun Kim, geezer Mike Morgan or the various other castoffs at Bob Brenly's mercy, the Yanks have to be feeling like they'll go through the bullpen like a hot knife through butter. Johnson threw 111 pitches--nowhere near his season high of 147, and five below his season average--five days ago, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue for him, the way it was with Curt Schilling's start on three days's rest.
The Yanks will once again depend on Andy Pettitte to keep them close. Pettitte gave up an early run in Game 2 but hung with the Big Unit almost pitch for pitch from there until he surrendered a three-run homer to Matt Williams in the 7th inning. He's pitched some amazingly clutch games in his career and he's as good a bet as the Yanks have going for them right now.
After the past two games, it would seem that nothing can top the drama we've witnessed. But either outcome tonight--the Yanks getting past the Big Unit to win #4, or Johnson forcing a Game 7 showdown between Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling--could make those key home runs by Tino Martinez, Derek Jeter, and Scott Brosius seem like yesterday's news. This has already been the most thrilling three-and-a-half weeks of baseball I've ever witnessed, and the setup right now is as good as it gets, folks. Enjoy the game.
On Wednesday night, Bob Brenly left his young closer in long enough to turn into a pumpkin, and the Yanks found some late treats in their Halloween bags. Last night the Diamondbacks' manager was still in the festive spirit; like Santa Claus, he delivered Byung Hyun Kim to the Yankees once again. It's like déjà vû all over again, or something.
Kim had thrown 61 pitches in Game 4 and yielded both the game-tying and game-winning home runs. Once again, the poor young closer allowed a two-out game-tying shot, this time to Scott Brosius. While Kim's combination of misfortune and bad timing has consigned him to the circle of Hell reserved for October goats--Mitch Williams, Bill Buckner, Mickey Owen, and Ralph Branca, please welcome your new roommate--the blame for all of this should fall squarely on the shoulders of Brenly. It's only slight hyperbole to call Brenly's decision to send Kim out there again "the single most stupid decision in the history of organized sport," as one post on Baseball Primer put it. The litany of Brenly's poor decisions in the World Series grows longer by the day--must we be subjected to more bunting? And just what the hell are you doing with a lineup that features a .307 OBP in the top spot and a .386 OBP in the eighth one?
The midnight madness of the past two nights has fried my brain, shredded my vocal cords, and probably shortened my life expectancy--those pork chops take a toll. So you'll have to forgive the piecemeal nature of the rest of this post as I point out a few things:
• Brenly's decisions fly in the face of rational analysis, but so does the Yanks' continued success in these situations. Since 1998, the Yanks have played 12 postseason games decided by 1 run. They've won all 12 (props to Rob Neyer, who pointed this out yesterday).
• ESPN ran this comparison of the Yanks bullpen and their opponents. It was late when I jotted these stats on a napkin; I think they go back to 1998, but it might be '96:
Yanks: 8-0, 2.30 ERA, 12 saves, 0 blown saves
Opponents: 1-7, 4.70 ERA, 1 save, 7 blown saves
Come playoff time there are two types of closers: Mariano Rivera, and Everybody Else.
• The Yanks have been outscored 19-10 in the series but are up 3-2. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage (one of Bill James' most trust formulas) of a team with that breakdown is .208, meaning their expected result over the five games is 1-4. Obviously, things haven't quite unfolded like that. They've been outscored 10-9 in the past four games but are 3-1 in that span.
• David Justice looks worse than any ballplayer I've ever seen right now. He has no business being in the Yankee lineup. A one-legged blind man wielding a toilet plunger during a tornado would have a better chance of getting a hit right now.
• Bernie Williams isn't winning any prizes either. He's been sleepwalking--three times this postseason he's gotten caught not running hard out of the batter's box. Last night, he hit a blooper which Tony Womack dropped in short left-centerfield, but only got a single out of it. Williams might not have made it into second safely, but he should have at least run hard and taken a wide turn at first base. Anything else, quite frankly, looks horseshit, given the high stakes.
• Alfonso Soriano has had some amazing highs and lows in this series. Brilliant, run-saving diving stops in two of the last three nights, and the game-winning hit last night. On the other hand, his "throw" home in the eighth inning of Game 4 could have been mistaken for a shot-put in the general vicinity of first base, and his ground out on a 3-0 pitch to snuff a potential rally in Game 3.
• I've been a big fan of Curt Schilling, but I've seen the ugly side of his gung-ho attitude over the past few days. Publicly lobbying his manager for the Game 4 start, second-guessing him after being removed, and the head-hiding in the dugout, as if to say, "The performance of my teammates is beneath me to watch." He clearly has no faith in his mates to get the job done, and as much as we admire those who want the ball in the crucial situations (think: Michael Jordan), that's a poisonous attitude on a baseball team. On the other hand, this is a man who watched Mitch Williams blow four saves in one postseason (including two of his own starts), so it's tough to blame him for his skepticism.
• Bill Simmons, the ESPN Page 2's Sports Guy, is hilarious today, with his piece on Red Sox fans considering conversion to being Yankee fans.
• My roommate, Issa Clubb, spends as much time combing the Mac user community online as I do the baseball one. He posted this to the Macintosh News Network board. It's too good not to share; the hyperbole is unfortunately not far from the truth. Here it is:
Nov 2, 2001 New York City -- Macintosh computer geek Macaddled suffered a fatal heart attack last night in apparent response to the New York Yankees' inability to win a normal game by scoring 3 runs in the 6th or something.
Witnesses say that he became particularly agitated when Yankee David Justice, who had one weak hit and 9 strikeouts in the Series, swung at a 3-0 pitch with a man on. Police are investigating a hole in the wall of Macaddled's apartment which appears to bear the outlines of his fist.
They add that he began hyperventilating when he saw Arizona closer Kim out to start the 9th after having thrown 62 pitches the night before, screaming in between breaths, "Has the world gone mad??" and "Up is down!! Black is white!!"
He was unconscious at the time of Scott Brosius' home run. He regained consciousness only to see that Mike Morgan, his great-grandcousin, was pitching in the 10th. He promptly fainted and was blissfully unaware of Mariano Rivera loading the bases in the bottom of the 10th. His family credit the grace of God with sparing him such unnecessary pain.
His last words were delirious: "Joe's got his earthly delights from that pact with the devil, now where's mine, dammit!!"
Those were my words on the in-game web log over at Mostly Baseball, where I've been involved in a running commentary of nearly every Yankee postseason game. The Arizona Diamondbacks had just scored two runs in the eighth inning of Game 4 to go up 3-1. Snakes' manager Bob Brenly, his decision to start Curt Schilling on three days' rest seemingly vindicated, sent out his closer, Byung Hyun Kim, to get the final six outs and put his team one win away from the World Championship. You could hear a pin drop over at Chow Mein Central, the Futility Infielder headquarters.
I'll admit it, I'd pretty much thrown in the towel. Neither my roommate nor my girlfriend could muster anything positive to say. Being a fan of these Yankees, one always expects the unexpected, but how often can you go to the well?
As I've said before, we tend to be a superstitious lot underneath the Chow Mein sign. When the ninth inning came, I retreated to my bedroom. "I'm going looking for talismans," I announced. I donned my navy-blue David Cone practice jersey. And then I had a stroke of genius.
Back in late April, I attended games on consecutive weekends where the giveaway was a Yankee cap of sorts. Now, I tend to prefer the genuine article, the fitted New Era 5950 cap which every major leaguer wears. But desperate times--say, looking down the barrel of a 3-1 World Series deficit--call for desperate measures. So I pulled out an adjustable cap which says "World Champions NY [logo] 1998-1999-2000". Never worn it before, but maybe that meant the cap still had a few hits left in it.
It did, to say the least. After Tino Martinez's 2-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning--as exciting as any I've seen since Jim Leyritz's game-tying 3-run shot in Game 4 of the 1996 Series, on The Short List--I ran into my room and got an identical cap for my roommate. The gang at Chow Mein jumped up and down. We screamed ourselves hoarse. The game wasn't over, but the Yanks suddenly had life. Stick that in your 3-1 graphic, Fox.
The hat thusly donned by my roomie made the ending a formality. For the life of me, I do not understand what Bob Brenly was thinking in sending Byun Hung Curveball back out for the 10th inning. Kim had already pitched two innings and surrendered the game-tying shot. A third inning rendered him useless for Game 5. He got two outs, but Derek Jeter, nearly invisible thus far in the series, poked one over the short porch ("Short porch! Short porch!" shouted the roomie as the ball left Jeter's bat) in right field to give the Yanks their second GOMP (Get Off My Property) home run of the postseason and tie the Series at two games apiece.
The list of reasons this game will forever be remembered is long. It was only the third time in World Series history (and the first in over 70 years) that a team came from down 2 runs in the 9th inning to win a game--a shocking stat, now that I think about it. It was the first time in a World Series that a team had tied the game with a home run in the 9th, then won it with another homer in extra innings. The two homers were hit by two players were a combined 1-for-23 in the Series up to that point. This was the first Major League Baseball game ever played on Halloween, and when the clock struck midnight, we had the first November baseball in ML history as well. Derek Jeter, the first batter after the clock struck 12, is now being hailed as "Mr. November." Byun Hung Curveball, on the other hand, turned into a pumpkin, thanks to the oh-so-second-guess-able way in which Bob Brenly handled his pitchers (preserving your ace for a potential Game 7 when you've still got to win Game 4 is ass-backwards. Joe Sheehan over at Baseball Prospectus picks apart this and several other lousy Brenly decisions). Brenly now has a haunting Halloween tale which should scare any manager. Yankee manager Joe Torre and General Manager Brian Cashman's contracts both expired at midnight, though the early line has them showing up for work today, anyway, with contract extensions to follow just as soon as George Steinbrenner gets his drawer full of turtleneck sweaters in order.
Of course, as Jeter noted in the postgame, Mike Mussina and the Yanks must beat the Diamondbacks (who send Miguel Batista to the mound) in order for their Game 4 win to mean much. Heading back to Arizona down 3-2 with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling lined up is a harrowing proposition, to say the least. Mussina should be more effective than he was in Game 1, when he lasted only three innings. Batista will likely need bullpen support, though of course he can thank Brenly when Mike Morgan or Greg Swindell has to pitch a key situation in the late innings because Kim is unavailable. Tonight is the season finale on baseball in the Bronx, and it probably marks Paul O'Neill's final appearance at Yankee Stadium, so look for some high drama there, not that there won't be enough already.
The Diamondback players, to a man, would probably refuse to admit that they believe in ghosts, even the kind that seem to inhabit Yankee Stadium come October. But don't think they're not spooked right now.
Very weird game last night, and an even weirder odyssey to get there. I left work on the waaaay west side of Manhattan, walking past Penn Station and Madison Square Garden, where several fire trucks had their sirens blaring. "What now?" I thought to myself. Anthrax, bomb scare, the return of the undead Michael Jordan.... the mind reels these days.
Got on the subway around 6:40 PM, and after transferring trains, was forced, with everybody else, to get off the train one stop early (they had shut the 161st Street/Yankee Stadium stop due to security issues) and walk 12 blocks through the Bronx to Yankee Stadium. I was by myself, as my fellow ticketholder plans to arrive late due to other obligations. No expert in Bronx geography, I could see the glow from the stadium lights once I emerged from the 149th Street station and simply followed the throngs of people to the ballpark. Where even more throngs awaited. I believe the polite term is "clusterfuck". Due to the heavy security surrounding President George W. Bush's visit to throw out the first pitch, every ticketholder had to pass through a metal detector prior to entering the ballpark. But seemingly no one was even being let in prior to Bush's entry--I stood in a crowd for well over an hour without moving significantly closer, and the ballgame started without me and at least ten thousand other paying customers getting in. We all missed Bush throwing out the first pitch, though we did see his helicopter come and go, not to mention the thunderous F-16 flyover. I was briefed on the first inning by a man with one of those headphone radios, and as I neared the entry, another fan dictated a rudimentary play-by-play from his wife via cel phone. Ah, the wonders of technology.
I finally made it to my seat (row T, five rows from the top, but behind home plate, so pretty good, actually) a few minutes past 9 PM, just in time for the bottom of the second inning. Jorge Posada led off the inning with a solo home run to left field. Suddenly, I felt right right at home.
The ballgame was tense, puncutated by fielding gaffes on Arizona's part and gems by the Yankees. Diamondback catcher Damian Miller had a rough night, dropping one pop foul, letting another one drop in fair territory before rolling foul (replays looked as if it actually glanced off his glove, which would have allowed the go-ahead run to score for the Yanks), and later nearly collided with first baseman Mark Grace, who dropped another foul. Meanwhile, Yank second baseman Alfonso Soriano made a diving stab to hold Erubiel Durazo to a single and keep the go-ahead run from scoring in the sixth. Then Shane Spencer made a diving catch on a sinking Matt Williams liner to left field to close out the threat.
Roger Clemens came up big for the Yanks, with seven strong innings. He teetered on the brink of several walks; each time I muttered something about "a fat sack of Texas horseshit" getting the ball over, and the Rocket, fortunately, complied. Only in the fourth inning, where he issued a leadoff walk to Steve Finley, who scored on a sacrifice fly, did his control hurt him. Mariano Rivera smothered the Snakes in the final two innings, striking out four and making a spectacular unassisted tag on Craig Counsell, who inexplicably (but almost successfully) bunted Rivera's first pitch. With no margin for error, it's a great feeling to have the surest thing in World Series history protecting your lead.
A few thoughts on Bob Brenly's decision to start Curt Schilling on short rest. We've heard a lot about the poor track record of pitchers starting on three days' rest in recent postseasons, and the numbers aren't pretty: 2-10, 6.95 ERA in 17 starts since 1998. But that cutoff is a totally arbitrary one--stretch the horizon back a little further and you've got Randy Johnson in '95, Andy Pettitte in '96, Mike Mussina and Jared Wright in '97 pitching well and winning some BIG games.
In Jim Baker's e-mailed Baseball Preview (which I highly recommend reading on a daily basis; email Buick8@aol.com to get added to the list), today Baker ran a quick study of pitchers in the postseason who, since 1968 (the year of Bob Gibson's last big postseason) started a Game 4 on three days rest after starting Game 1. The names are some pretty formidable ones: Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Mike Cuellar, Ken Holtzman, Luis Tiant, Jack Morris, Jon Tudor, Frank Viola, Jose Rijo, Dave Stewart, Tom Glavine and Kevin Brown--two Hall of Famers and a few who may get there eventually. Overall, the pitchers were 9-9 with an ERA just over 3.00 in 21 starts. Six times, though, two pitchers who met the criteria started against each other, accounting for 12 of the 21 starts. A pretty strong showing, overall.
Though I am by no means an unbiased observer, I agree with Brenly's decision. The Yanks are not hitting well and the D-Backs have a chance to go up 3-1. Schilling only threw 102 pitches in Game 1, and was never really pressured. If the Yanks somehow find a way to beat Schilling and tie the series 2-2, the D-Backs still have Miguel Batista going in Game 5 against Mike Mussina, who was less than effective in Game 1. Regardless of the order of the rotation, the games' results are by no means academic (with a couple breaks, Brian Anderson would have beaten them last night, sheesh), and the D-Backs still have two to win one and take the lead leaving town. The absolute worst-case scenario for Brenly is that he goes back to Arizona down 3-2, with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, possibly the two best pitchers in baseball, lined up to face the Yanks in the final games. If Joe Torre could switch benches, I think even he would take those odds in a New York minute.
The Yanks now have some signs of life. Tonight they have El Duque, a pitcher with a great postseason track record, in a situation analagous to his 1998 start in the ALCS against Cleveland, down 2-1 in games. But this time he's in the Bronx, where good things seem to happen to these Yankees. I've got my fingers crossed that trend continues, and a couple orders of grilled pork chops standing by.
That purple team, the one with the Escape from Taco Bell uniforms and the most lethal pitching duo to reach a World Series since Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale, has got the New York Yankees by the throats. Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson of the Arizona Diamondbacks have throttled the three-time defending World Champions in the first two games of this World Series to the tune of 1 run, 20 strikeouts, and a .102 batting average. The Yankees' deer-in-the-headlights stare looks familiar, if only because we've seen it on their victims' faces in Octobers past, as the Yanks forced the errors, pummelled the lame fastballs, and mounted the endless rallies.
But those days seem a long ways away right now, and it's the Diamondbacks who are rallying. The Snakes emphatically took control of the series in the third inning of Game 1, when Luis Gonzalez crushed a Mike Mussina pitch for a two-run homer and a Steve Finley fly ball clanked off the iron glove of Justice (David Justice, the Yanks' rightfielder). The onslaught was enough to end the evening of Mike Mussina, the Yanks' best pitcher over the past two months, at an early hour. But the D-Backs weren't done, adding another quartet of runs in the fourth inning at the expense of Randy Choate, thanks in part to a Scott Brosius error. It was a lost night for the Yanks, as Schilling cruised through seven innings before yielding to the ancient Mike Morgan.
The Yanks made a better show of it in Game 2, as Andy Pettitte hung in there against the Big Unit. Pettitte was nicked for a run in the second inning, as Danny Bautista doubled in Reggie Sanders, but he was dominant nonetheless, throwing only nine balls in his first 66 pitches and striking out seven. But Pettitte found trouble in the seventh, when he hit Luis Gonzalez and couldn't get a double-play on an infield grounder by Reggie Sanders (announcer Tim McCarver harped on Brosius's double-clutch before releasing the ball, but the fact is that speedy batter, Reggie Sanders, grounded into only 2 double plays in over 500 plate appearances this year). Then Bautista hit a comeback shot that richocheted off of Pettitte, and suddenly Andy was in a jam. He made his only real mistake of the night on an 0-1 fastball to Matt Williams, who deposited it in the left field stands for a 3-run homer. That lead was downright insurmountable against Randy Johnson, who went through the Yankee lineup like a blowtorch. Johnson struck out nine through the first five innings and allowed only one hit until the Yankee eighth. The Yanks mounted their closest thing to a rally, but pinch-hitter Luis Sojo, overmatched against the Big Unit, grounded into an inning-ending double play.
That move--pinch-hitting Sojo--is a telling one for the series. While Sojo has had his share of big hits, including three game-winners this year and the World Series-winning hit against the Mets last fall, his presence in theis crucial situation revealed just how thin Joe Torre's bench is, and how desperately he seems to be grasping for past glories. With lefties Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, and David Justice out of the lineup and righties Shane Spencer and Randy Velarde in, Torre was left with Enrique Wilson, Clay Bellinger, Todd Greene, and Sojo as his options (Rob Neyer examines this state of affairs here). Bellinger, nothing if not a decent fastball hitter, would have probably been a better choice, but we can second-guess about that one until the cows come home and it still won't change the score.
If any second-guessing of Torre should come about, a better place to start would be the decision to keep Pettitte in the game after Bautista's ricochet. Ramiro Mendoza was already warmed up, and with Matt Williams, a struggling but powerful righty with a significant platoon differential (935 OPS vs. lefties, 719 vs. righties) at the plate, it made sense to go with Mendoza. Pettitte had pitched his heart out, but Torre's loyalty to his starter cost them both the game.
But credit the Diamondbacks. They have played nearly flawless baseball in the series. Schilling and Johnson have continued to pitch like the ones in the catalog, and are now a combined 7-1 with a 1.07 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 67 innings this postseason. Their infield, particularly third baseman Williams, has played stellar defense. Unlikely hero Craig Counsell, with the most ridiculous batting stance this side of Tony Battista, continued his postseason tear with a home run in Game 1. Danny Bautista has continued to justify Bob Brenly's faith in starting him over the red-hot Steve Finley by getting big hits. The Snakes are hungry, and they're now two games away from dethroning the Yankees.
But history will note that a similar cast of Yankees overcame a similar hurdle five years ago. After being destroyed by the Atlanta Braves 12-1 and 4-0 in the first two games of the 1996 series, the Yanks roared back to take the next four. This time, they have the luxury of trying to get a leg up on their home field. Roger Clemens, nine days removed from his last start and apparently healthier, is faced with his biggest start as a Yankee. No team has ever come from down 3-0 to win a series, so Game 3 is about as must-win as they come. Fortunately for the Yanks, the back end of the Diamondbacks rotation is considerably less imposing than the front--the D-backs were 49-58 in games where their big duo didn't get a decision. Quirky lefty Brian Anderson, 4-9 with a 5.20 ERA, faces Clemens in Game 3, and Miguel Batista will go in Game 4--unless Brenly deviates from his plan and brings back Curt Schilling on three days rest. Not exactly a rosy picture for the Yanks.
In the great tradition of lefty pitchers, Anderson is quite a wit. Talking about how the public sentiment largely seems to be backing the Yanks, even in the quarters of their most-hated rivals such as Boston, he said, "They're anti-New York but they can't be too happy about a purple team from Arizona winning it all."
Thanks to the partial season ticket package in which I partake, I'll be attending Game 3 in Yankee Stadium (look for me up in Row T of the Upper Deck, with the oxygen tank and the binoculars). The last time I was in Yankee Stadium for the World Series, I was in a similar seat, watching Roger Clemens nail the coffin shut on the Braves in the 1999 World Series for a four-game sweep. I can only hope Clemens summons up a similar result on Tuesday night. If he doesn't, that purple team will be one win away from a World Championship.
