Technical Difficulties

Apologies to any of you who had trouble finding this page earlier today. Apparently something is wrong with Reblogger, the service which allows readers to post comments to each article. I had to disable that feature--hell, I had to go on a search-and-destroy mission within my site's code to weed it out--because when it went down it prevented this page from loading.

I'll be looking into other alternatives in the next few days. Again, sorry for the inconvenience and thanks for trying again. And now, back to my series about the Yankees' offseason facelift...

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 11:18 AM Link

Remaking the Yankees, Part IV: Third Base

Scott Brosius surprised the baseball world by announcing his retirement last week. Thirty-five years old and facing free agency, but with four straight trips to the World Series to show for his time in the Bronx, Brosius concluded he'd done it all and decided to hang 'em up. All of this despite the fact that he'd posted his best season in three years and had a reasonable shot at either a one-year deal with the Yankees or a longer-term contract elsewhere, possibly with the Seattle Mariners. You could do worse. But more power to Brosius for choosing to spend time with his family. He'll certainly be missed in the place where he showed the best defense since Graig Nettles and had his share of big hits.

Feel-good stories aside, the Yankees now find themselves between hops at the hot corner. Former University of Michigan quarterback and potential Heisman Trophy winner Drew Henson is clearly The Future. The trouble is, the Yanks have no Present in place.

The Yankees drafted Henson in 1998, signing him for a $2 million bonus. In need of immediate pitching help, they traded him to the Cincinnati Reds in the Denny Neagle deal last July. But after Henson flexed the muscle of his NFL leverage (as in, pay me or I'll continue to play football), the impoverished Reds sent him back to the Yanks (along with outfield bust Michael Coleman) in March for 19-year old prospect Wily Mo Pena.

Henson certainly has physical tools--he's 6'5", 222 lbs with an outstanding arm. And he's certainly got a commitment from the Yankees to make him their third baseman sooner or later--he signed a six-year, $17 million deal upon being reacquired. But he doesn't have much experience in professional baseball; last year was his first full season devoted to the sport. Hit by a pitch, he broke a bone in his hand in April, and struggled once he returned in June. In 303 at bats, mostly with AAA Columbus, he hit .228 with 12 HR and 43 RBI. His peripheral numbers are not pretty--.265 OPB, .370 SLG, and only 13 walks to go with 99 strikeouts. He also found time to make 20 errors in the field.

Henson did play well in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .314 AVG/.407 OBP/.570 SLG, with 6 HR and 33 RBI--good enough for Peter Gammons to slobber over, at least. But at last report, the likes of Pedro Martinez, Mark Mulder, and Freddy Garcia were nowhere to be found in Arizona. There's a good reason they don't print AFL stats on the back of a baseball card.

The Yanks' organizational consensus seems to be that Henson will start the season at AAA, but may be in the Bronx by midsummer, though Joe Torre has left the door open for Henson to win the job in spring training. I think this is wildly optimistic (look at that K/W ratio, if nothing else). Given that the Yanks haven't rushed any of their prospects along in quite awhile, it would be surprising if they start with Henson.

So that leaves a sizable gap at third base. The free agent market for third basemen is a thin one. The only name that has been linked with the Yankees is that of Randy Velarde, acquired by the Yanks from Texas just before the postseason roster deadline. The 39-year-old Velarde suffered through hamstring problems last season, and didn't hit much after being acquired. His 200-hit season of just two years ago is a distant memory. He's not a great third baseman (career .934 fielding percentage); he's only played 14 games there in the past four seasons. Here he is, along with the rest of the class:

               Age  2001 OBP/SLG/SL*OB      Career OBP/SLG/SL*OB
David Bell      29   .303/.415/.126           .309/.396/.122  
Vinny Castilla  34   .308/.467/.144           .331/.504/.167 
Craig Paquette  33   .326/.465/.153           .281/.426/.120 
Ed Sprague      34   .374/.436/.163 (94 AB)   .318/.419/.133 
Randy Velarde   39   .356/.424/.151           .353/.410/.145 

Castilla's numbers have been vastly inflated by seven years in Colorado. But interestingly enough, he struggled last season in the second-best hitter's park in the free world, Enron Field, performing much better away from Enron (.337/.498/.168) than at home (.279/.435/.121).

By the end of last season, the Yanks were deep with stop-gap solutions at third. Hell, Joe Torre's postseason bench was geared toward the possiblity of a third baseman or two getting mauled by man-eating tigers or washed away in a flood every three innings. No less than four bench players on the postseason roster--Velarde, Luis Sojo, Enrique Wilson, and Clay Bellinger--saw time there in 2001. Sojo has retired to await his bobble-headed coronation and the first annual Futility Infielder of the Year Award. This leaves:

                Age  2001 OBP/SLG/SL*OB    Career OBP/SLG/SL*OB
Enrique Wilson   26   .238/.281/.067         .305/.364/.111 
Clay Bellinger   33   .207/.383/.079         .258/.365/.094

I have never understood the infatuation with Wilson, on the part of either the Yankees or any other organization. He's only 25, and he's reportedly got "soft hands." But he can't hit a lick, and he looks like a young acolyte of the Luis Sojo bodybuilding program. After a miserable half-season in Pittsburgh, he did "improve" with semi-regular playing time in pinstripes (.283/.343/.097). He's reportedly the leading contender to open the season at third. Greaaaaat.

Bellinger is as useful a 25th man as there is in baseball. Pinch-running, playing every position except catcher (but hustling out of the dugout to warm up pitchers after the catcher makes the last out), telling the boys they're not out of it yet, and generally keeping the bench planks from warping, he's a valuable guy to have around. Defensively, he played a great third base for a couple weeks when Scott Brosius broke his hand in August, and even hit a few homers in that span. But no one is going to pencil his name in the Opening Day lineup; it's just that way when you buy property below the Mendoza Line.

Should the Yanks be forced to go with a Giambi-free Plan B, they may decide to trade for a bigger bat at third. The Mets' Robin Ventura, 34 and coming off of his second straight sub-par season (.359/.419/.150), is up for grabs, but the Yanks, who explored the possibility of acquiring him before they got Velarde last summer, want the Mets to take on most of his $8 million salary. As Ventura's salary continues to hamper Mets GM Steve Phillips' free-agent options, he may become available. The New York Post reported Wednesday that a Ventura-for-David Justice deal has been discussed, but it's hard to see how that trade helps either team from a financial standpoint. It might solve the Yanks short-term third base needs, but at the expense of outfield production.

If the Yanks really decided to make a splash, they could trade for the Phillies' Scott Rolen. Rolen, who will be free of blowhards Larry Bowa and Dallas Green by the end of 2002 if not sooner, is a fine young player entering his prime, with three Gold Gloves already to his name. In a slightly down season, he still hit .289 with 25 HR and 107 RBI (.378/498/.188). He would require significant talent in exchange (Johnson plus pitching, at least), and then a hefty long-term contract to make it worthwhile. But with Henson already slated to get paid and with significantly less value to any team besides the Yankees (because they fear he could resume his football career), it ain't gonna happen.

The bottom line is that the Yanks expectations (and budget) for third base are pretty low right now. An Enrique Wilson/Clay Bellinger tandem may be a bit too ramshackle to get by with--they pretty much define the concept of "replacement level" ballplayers. Though I realize that more pressing matters have required the attention of Brian Cashman and company, I'm surprised the Yanks haven't pursued Velarde more vigorously. He may be old and less than ideal, but unlike the two above, he is a proven major-league hitter, and would make an ideal #2 hitter behind Derek Jeter, certainly better than Alfonso Soriano at this stage.

Given that Velarde missed the Yanks' championship run (leaving after '95 and returning last season), it's a safe bet he'd re-up for another shot at a ring if given the option, even if it's just to keep Henson's seat warm.

Torre's projections aside, I don't think we've heard the last word on the subject. Expect the Yankees to do SOMETHING to bolster the situation, but don't expect too many barehanded plays on grounders this summer. Scott Brosius is taking those all back to Oregon. Sigh...

Recapping it all... if you haven't read the first three parts of this series, they are conveniently located below. Here is a summary of my cumulative proposals for the Yankees' offensive remake, in the form of a batting order. This does not assume rampant, unchecked spending ("...and we'll sign Boone, and we'll trade for Rolen and sign him...") or the kind of pipe dreams proffered by the likes of the New York Post. I think it's very realistic, given the statements that are coming out of the Yankees' brass and my own analysis:

1 Jeter SS
2 Velarde 3B
3 Giambi 1B
4 Williams CF
5 Alou RF or Floyd LF
6 Posada C
7 Justice DH
8 Spencer/Johnson RF or LF (platoon)
9 Soriano 2B

I think the Yanks, if they are going to keep Johnson, are best served by trying to find out if he can play the outfield. If Shane Spencer can make himself into a passable outfielder, then Johnson ought to be able to. Spencer kills lefties, and could pick up the defensive scraps when necessary; otherwise the Yanks ought to see if Johnson can hit big league pitching, particularly righties.

The one negative about this lineup is defense. Though Brosius had a lousy year with the glove, Velarde would be hard-pressed to upgrade the position significantly. Alou or Floyd won't challenge for a Gold Glove, and neither will Giambi, especially when compared to Tino Martinez's stellar defense. Spencer/Johnson could be an adventure, but so was Chuck Knoblauch, and we all lived through that. But this lineup is a significant step up offensively, with major improvements at 1B, one corner outfield slot, and DH likely. It ought to be enough to put the Yanks back among the top offenses in the league. At the price, it had better.

I'll be checking out the Yankees' pitching options this weekend...

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 9:27 AM Link

Remaking the Yankees, Part III: Corner Outfielders

Corner outfielders, along with first basemen and designated hitters, are supposed to be the staples of a team's offense--the big hitters, the guys who put runs on the board. One of the Yanks' biggest problems last year was the poor production from their left- and rightfielders and designated hitters. Looking at their production using Baseball Prospectus's Equivalent Runs (as I did in Part I of this article), specifically Runs Above Position, the Yanks didn't have a single corner outfielder who was above average (I should take the time to point out here that the average is for the 30 teams, not a "league average" as I said in Part I). Rightfielder Paul O'Neill, since retired, was 2.4 runs below, Chuck Knoblauch was 15.7 runs below, David Justice (who spent more time at DH) was 9.6 below, and Shane Spencer was 7.7 below.

It's interesting that in both left- and rightfield, the bulk of the offensive talent is in the National League, and by a wide margin. The top six NL LFs (Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez, Lance Berkman, Gary Sheffield, Brian Giles, and Cliff Floyd ) all outpaced their AL counterparts, and by a wide margin--Bonds was 126.5 runs above average (having the best offensive season ever by most measures), Gonzalez 101.3, with the other four closely bunched between 67.5 (Giles) and 76.6 (Berkman). Mark McLemore was the top AL LF at 39.6, with the likes of Frank Catalanotto, Shannon Stewart, Bobby Higginson, Stan Javier, and Marty Cordova--not exactly staples of anybody's MVP ballot--behind him. Over in RF, Sammy Sosa (77.1), Larry Walker (41.0), Shawn Green (35.9), and J.D. Drew (30.1) were the top four, with Juan Gonzalez leading the AL at 28.3.

I'm not sure why this productivity imbalance exists--my initial hunch was the presence of the designated hitter, but looking at that list, only Manny Ramirez would rank in that class if considered as an OF. The AL does have its share of leadoff hitters who saw time in 2001 at corner spots. Ichiro, Shannon Stewart, Catalanotto, and Knoblauch all played the bulk of their games in left or right, and centerfielders Roger Cedeno and Johnny Damon saw significant time there as well.

Having looked at the leadoff options available on the market in Part II of this series, my conclusion was that it doesn't make sense for the Yanks to sign a leadoff type like Kenny Lofton or Roger Cedeno. Neither is an especially productive hitter for a leadoff, and both have significant drawbacks. Better the Yanks should go after a more traditionally productive hitter to fill either left- or rightfield, and then fill the other spot internally.

There are several players of that variety, both on the free agent market (listed below in the first cluster) and as trade possibilities (the second cluster):

                Age   2001 OBP/SLG/SL*OB    Career OBP/SLG/SL*OB   RARP
Moises Alou      35    .396/.554/.219         .372/.524/.194       38.2
Barry Bonds      37    .515/.863/.444         .419/.585/.245      145.0
Marty Cordova    32    .348/.506/.176         .346/.451/.156       19.6
Johnny Damon     28    .324/.363/.118         .346/.425/.147        8.9
Juan Gonzalez    32    .370/.590/.218         .345/.568/.196       49.3
Reggie Sanders   34    .337/.549/.185         .350/.484/.169       19.6

Cliff Floyd      29    .390/.578/.225         .355/.486/.173       55.7
Raul Mondesi     31    .342/.453/.155         .335/.499/.167       18.8
Gary Sheffield   33    .417/.583/.243         .399/.521/.208       63.2
Dmitri Young     28    .350/.481/.168         .351/.468/.164       18.6

Some of these players don't have an ice cube's chance in hell of signing with the Yanks, especially if they sign Jason Giambi. Barry Bonds and Juan Gonzalez both fit into that category. I included Johnny Damon for several reasons. Though I didn't deal with him much in the leadoff article since the Yanks haven't shown much interest in him, he is young enough and has shown enough talent over the course of that young career to be a significant step up from the other three. But I also wanted to show where this "best of available class" player fits in, productivity-wise, compared to some of the heavier hitters.

I included (Equivalent) Runs Above Replacement Position in this chart, rather than Runs Above Position because I felt it works better for cross-postion comparisons. Notice that if we rank them by RARP, it correlates almost exactly with this year's SL*OB figures for these players.

None of these players is without his question marks:
• Bonds, though he won't sign with the Yanks, is the oldest of the bunch, making a long-term contract something of a risk. He is, as we've seen, not exactly free from controversy with regards to his teammates. But there's no getting around what a great hitter he is.
• Sheffield is a devastating hitter, but historically a disruptive presence just about anywhere he goes. He would likely cost the most when salary and the amount of talent needed in exchange are considered.
• Gonzalez is a fine hitter who has had back problems which have scared teams away. He rejected a trade to the Yanks in 2000, and though he now says he'd be willing to play in New York, that may be just a bargaining ploy. He answered some of the questions about his health with a strong season in Cleveland last year.
• Alou is getting on in years, and has had his share of health problems. He has downplayed the possibility of coming to New York in the past, but may be warming to the idea. He's being sought by several teams, including the Red Sox and the Mets.
• Floyd spends a lot of time on the DL; he's averaged only 111 games a year over the past five seasons, and only 135 over the past two, thanks to knee and back problems. He's a few years younger than the other heavy hitters here, which does make him more desirable. But the Florida Marlins' situation, with no General Manager in place and contraction still a remote possibility, may delay his being moved.
• Cordova, a former Rookie of the Year, had his best season since 1996 and re-emerged as a solid player. Whether he can maintain that performance is open to debate; he tailed off dramatically after the All-Star break (.379 OBP/.535 SLG/.203 SL*OB before, .316/.474/.150 after).
• Sanders may as well be nicknamed "Sick-Note"; he's averaged 124 games a year over the past four seasons, and never topped 138 games.
• Mondesi is coming off a disappointing season, and it's beginning to look as if he may never fulfill his potential; he's still never driven in 100 runs in a season, and his power has fallen off despite moving to a more favorable park. His defense, including one of the game's best arms, does add something to his value, though whether he's worth his $10 million is open to debate.
• Young, a switch-hitter who hits both righties and lefties well, doesn't have as much power as one would like, but may add some as he matures. He's had trouble staying in shape in the past. Young is eligible for arbitration, but would probably be cheaper than most of the others listed here (with the possible exception of Cordova).
• Damon was almost a total flop in Oakland after a .382/.495/.189 season in Kansas City the year before. He had a terrible first half (.301/.357/.107) and a so-so second (.351/.372/.131), and it's been posited that he couldn't handle the pressure of playing in New York. He does still have a very good upside, however.

Taking all of this in and considering the salary ramificiations of a potential Jason Giambi signing, Alou, Mondesi, Floyd, Cordova, and Young appear to be the best candidates here. All have their positives: Alou is the best hitter of the bunch; Mondesi would give them a world-class arm in right field, and may find rejuvenation in a change of scenery; Cordova may come relatively cheap; Floyd (a lefty) and Young (a switch-hitter) would be the best fits for Yankee Stadium, and both are fairly young and cheap (Floyd is in the final year of a 4-year, $19 million contract; Young is arbitration eligible after making $3.5 million in 2001).

Floyd, Young, and Mondesi would all require a significant surrender of talent--Mondesi possibly a premium because the Blue Jays are in the Yanks' division. Young has long been the subject of trade rumors, but Reds GM Jim Bowden may be asking too much for him. Bowden has had his eye on the prospective starters in the Mariners' organization in exchange for Young for quite awhile, and the Yanks simply can't compete with that without affecting their own long-term plans.

Supposing the Yanks manage to trade for Floyd or sign Alou, it's likely they'll stick with Shane Spencer and David Justice in the other outfield slot and at DH. Justice had a miserable 2001 season (.333/.430/.143, compared to career marks of .378/.507/.192). He had off-season hernia surgery and battled both groin and domestic problems all year. While the Yanks might like to trade him, he didn't exactly showcase himself in the postseason. Given an offseason to recuperate, he may still have productive days ahead of him--the Yanks would certainly accept a year in line with his normal level of performance. Spencer was slightly below his own meager standards (.315/.428/.135, compared to a career .324/.468/.152), but he heated up as the year wore on (.339/.439/.149 after the break). He's valuable as a platoon player (he kills lefties), and his defense has come a long way, but if he's ever going to have a Bubba Trammell-like breakout season, this may be his one shot.

Other internal options exist for the Yanks. Nick Johnson, who until the Yanks started their pursuit of Jason Giambi was slated as the first baseman of the future, may see a good chunk of at bats at DH, and may even get a shot at playing the outfield in spring training (if he's not traded, that is). Another rookie who may figure into the Yanks' plans is Juan Rivera. The skinny 23-year old Rivera hit .322 with 28 HRs in a season split between AA Norwich and AAA Columbus (.360/.557/.201), and early reports are that he may be in the Bronx by midseason.

On a different tack, Alfonso Soriano may be shifted to left field (where he was slated to begin the 2001 season before the Knoblauch experiment) if the Yanks switch gears and land another second baseman. They've expressed interest in Brett Boone and Robbie Alomar, both of whom would cost as much as the high-end corner outfielders discussed above. This is probably a longshot right now.

It's likely the Yanks will dredge up a free-agent or two signed to a minor-league contract to compete for some at bats at DH (Glenallen Hill, please have your agent call Brian Cashman if you are healthy). Last year the Yanks were positively wretched there, batting only .218 (.320/.397/.127). Freely-available talent that can fill this slot abounds; the Yanks just need to bring in some warm bodies to find one or two able ones who fit the bill.

Boiling it all down... my guess is that the Yanks will go after Floyd unless the Marlins' situation causes too much delay or they can get Alou at terms favorable to them. They will then mix and match with Spencer, Justice, Johnson and eventually Rivera to fill the other two slots. But no matter what they do, there's no question help is on the way, and while it will probably cost some money and some minor-league talent, they won't have to break the bank to get some.

In Part IV of this series, I'll examine the Yanks third-base situation.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 11:43 PM Link