The Rally of A Thousand Runs Must Begin With a Single Baserunner

Today is the one-year anniversary of the death of Willie Stargell, and it marks an anniversary of sorts for me as well--or for this site, more accurately.

The bat-twirling Pirates slugger with the infectious smile and the ridiculous train-conductor cap had been of my boyhood heroes. His death--at age 61, on the day the Pirates were to move into a new ballpark adorned by his statue--moved me more than most, as memories of watching "Pops" one storybook summer came flooding back. He was 39 and on his last good legs as a ballplayer, radiating joy every moment he played the game. Baseball, Willie's smile told me, was all about having fun. I was 9 and learning the game from my father and grandfather; I pinwheeled my bat in imitation, and exuded joy every time I picked up my mitt.

A few months before Stargerll died, my own grandfather, Bernard Jaffe, had passed away, and his death was still weighing on me when the news about Willie came. "Pop" spent endless hours with me and my brother during our summer stays in Walla Walla, playing catch, pitching to us, taking us to games, and regaling us with tales of Babe Ruth and Jackie Robinson as we watched ballgames on cable. The 1979 "We Are Family" Pirates, led by Stargell to a World Championship, were a mainstay of one summer's programming (we were a Dodger family, but the Dodgers were well on their way to a season in sub-.500 oblivion). Moved by Stargell's passing and, in the tradition of my grandfather, struck with a yearning to pass on a generation of baseball wisdom to those whose appreciations didn't go back as far, I wrote an obituary of sorts, and emailed it around to friends.

In doing so, I tapped into a urge I'd had for a few years to combine my writing and my design into a single project, a labor I could love. I began plotting a web site as an outlet for my increasingly frequent writing about baseball, and my Stargell obit was the cornerstone (though in retrospect it's a bit clumsy and half-finished). In two weeks time, I'd registered a domain name, opened a Blogger account, bought a book on web site design, and started construction of the empire which would make me rich and fam... oh, wait. It hasn't (and won't) make me rich and famous, but I've built something over the past year which I'm very proud of--not every single word or every opinion offered, but not too bad either. A peek inside the head of one fan and a look at the ways we fans enjoy the game--whether following our favorite stars or teams, taking in a night at the ballpark, or poring over the box scores. I hope you've enjoyed it; I know I have.

So happy birthday to me and to this site, and thank you to those who've supported it. As the Mayor of this here domain, let me declare this and all future April 9ths to be Wille Stargell Day. May we all take as much joy and offer as much inspiration as Willie did in our endeavors.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 10:26 PM Link

You Can't Have Too Much Pitching

Since I've spent the past week or so attempting to burn a hole in my computer screen by staring very intensely, I haven't had the will or the time to play much with this website. But I did manage to catch some ballgames in the season's first week, including parts of every Yankee game. Thanks to reruns on YES, I can catch an inning or two of the previous night's ballgame with my morning coffee. Not a bad way to start the day.

Stuck inside the office on Opening Day, I couldn't even successfully purchase that screwed-up MLB Gameday package as I'd intended. So I had to wait until Wednesday to get a live fix on the Yankees. I watched David Wells face the Orioles in his return from pinstriped exile and back surgery, and was treated to a performance that felt almost preordained. The Not Quite So Fat Man, who obviously read the script, picked up on his strong spring and was in total command, beating the O's 1-0 on the strength of Robin Ventura's solo homer. Consistent with reports, about 25 pounds of Wells has gone missing, and he showed no sign of back trouble even in the chilly weather. The cold air helped Wells' pitching, keeping hard hit balls in the park and allowing him to concentrate on inducing lazy fly balls.

Wells and the other members of the starting rotation have been the story of the Yanks since the season opened. Six games in, Roger Clemens is the only starter to yield any runs, and the starters have now allowed 1 run in their last 35.2 innings. Wells' 7.1 shutout innings preceded 7 blank frames by Mike Mussina against his former team, 6 zeroes by Andy Pettitte against the Devil Rays, and an emphatic 8-inning 1-hitter by Orlando Hernandez. Granted, all of this happened against two AL East doormats who lost 198 games last year and who comprise nearly 1/4 of the Yankee schedule. But anybody who saw those games had to come away feeling that the Yanks have the strongest starting rotation in baseball.

Recall that Boomer's burger-induced surprise signing this winter left him in a three-way competition with Sterling Hitchcock and El Duque for two spots in the rotation. It also created all kinds of intrigue regarding El Duque's next destination. But GM Brian Cashman, who isn't stupid, fended off uninteresting offers from the Angels, Pirates, Giants and others. The message was clear: you can never have too much pitching. With three pitchers coming off of injury-marred seasons, it's hardly surprising that another ailment--Hitchcock's back, this time--deferred any decision Joe Torre has to make about the rotation. Sterling has his work cut out for him if he's going to crack it. A lousy spring saw him struggling to breathe life into his mid-80s fastball before back troubles slowed him. Then the other day he felt a twinge in his groin, shutting him down for another week. In other words, he's in midseason form.

Torre's old standbys may make the point moot by the time Hitchcock finishes his Tampa cure (and that's not even considering the admittedly remote posssiblity David Cone will crawl out of the bleachers to join the team in the second half). Sterling is likely headed for a hitch in the bullpen when he does get healthy, becoming essentially a $6 million insurance policy against the assorted aches and pains that befall 39-year old pitchers (Wells turns 39 in May, Clemens will be 40 in August, and we'll have to saw El Duque in half to count his rings).

Further patchwork is available if need be. Last year's #5 starter, Ted Lilly, has taken his live arm (8.4 K/ 9 IP) to the bullpen; he's out of options and can't be sent down without passing him through waivers; only a favorable trade offer might set him loose. Cuban defector Adrian Hernandez, a.k.a. El Duquecito, had a very strong spring, but was sent down to Columbus to keep his momentum as a starter rather than stash him at the back of the Yankee bullpen (a la my old pal Jay Tessmer, who surprisingly made the squad as a non-roster invitee but who figures to go down once Ramiro Mendoza is activated).

When it's all said and done, the Yanks have one hell of an experienced and talented pool to draw from come October, and yes, they'll be there. Look at these career postseason stats:

           W-L   ERA    IP    ER
Pettitte  10-7  4.34  149.1   72
Hernandez  9-2  2.48   90.2   25
Wells      8-1  2.74   85.1   26
Clemens    6-6  3.33  127.0   47
Mussina    4-2  2.56   66.2   19
Hitchcock  4-0  1.76   30.2    6
--------------------------------
TOTALS   41-18  3.19  549.2  195

That, friends, is stiff competition.

As for the rest of the Yankee team, the players who have made the strongest impressions on me in this young season are Robin Ventura and Nick Johnson. Ventura followed his solo game-winning homer with a 3-run shot the next day. He's made several sterling plays in the field, including some barehanded pickups which evoked memories of the departed Scott Brosius. Of course, Ventura's got six Gold Gloves on his mantle to Brosius's one, so this shouldn't be too surprising. Right now he looks anything but the broken-down shell of his former All-Star self. Johnson, though he's been miscast in the #9 spot in the order, seems to be adapting well to the DH role. He socked his first homer of the season against the O's, and has shown his advertised ability to get on base, thanks to being hit by three pitches. Torre has gotten him into two games at first base, a pace which should save some wear and tear on Jason Giambi over the course of the season without offending him.

The season's only a week old and the competition's been less than stellar, but this Yankee team looks as strong as any since 1998. I predicted 103 wins and another World Championship for them and I haven't seen anything yet that leads me to back off that. I'm more nervous about my Barry Bonds HR prediction--he's only 59 off of my prediction and counting.

• • • • •

Continuing the predictions that I will put on file so I can laugh at them later: I entered Baseball Prospectus's HACKING MASS contest, in which one attempts to pick the worst hitters at five positions (C, 1B, 3B, 2B/SS, and OF) and gets points based on the formula (.800-OPS)*PA. My team, unimaginatively named The Futilitymen, are as follows: Catcher: Brad Ausmus, First Baseman: Eric Karros, Third Baseman: Shea Hillenbrand, Middle Infielder: Pokey Reese, and Outfielder: Marquis Grissom. If they suck as much as I think they will, it's definitely going to be a long year for the Dodgers.

And once more on the subject of predictions, I'm apparently the winner of Baseball Primer's Free Agent Fiesta, in which I picked the correct destinations of 9 out of 23 major free agents (Barry Bonds, Juan Gonzalez, Brett Boone, Jason Giambi, Tino Martinez, Chan Ho Park, Jason Schmidt, John Smoltz, and David Wells). I haven't decided where I'm going to park the new car I've won; I'm still waiting for them to ask me what color I want. Guys, just let me know what my options are...

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 5:44 PM Link