One Man's All-Star Team: National League

I don't watch as much NL baseball as I do AL, so my picks here are more reliant on stats and highlights than they are in the AL. In retrospect, I think I'm also guilty of a distinct anti-Arizona bias. I wonder how the hell that happened...

C: Paul Lo Duca (LA), Mike Piazza (NYM). Lo Duca's been screwed out of All-Star appearances each of the past two years. His out-of-nowhere season last year may have snuck up on NL manager Bobby Valentine, but Bob Brenly has no such excuse, especially seeing as how his Diamondbacks are looking up at the first-place Dodgers. That the Dodgers could turn over their entire rotation, more or less, and yet improve so much says something for their unheralded catcher. Lo Duca's not quite the hitter Mike Piazza is, but he runs circles around him defensively. Lousy arm and all, Piazza's a Star, and still worthy of inclusion here.

1B: Todd Helton (COL), Ryan Klesko (SD). Even with the Coors-induced inflation of his offensive totals, Helton is the best-hitting NL first-sacker, with an Equivalent Average 17 points higher than Klesko (EqA is context-adjusted, so it lets the appropriate amount of air out of those high-altitude totals). Klesko has matured into a complete offensive threat, even stealing 46bases over the past 2 years (though he's only got 1 thus far this year). Richie Sexson's having a good enough season to warrant consideration, but I'm going to save my token Brewers representative for another position.

2B: Jose Vidro (MON), Jeff Kent (SF), Luis Castillo (FLA). Viva les Expos! Vidro earned his starting spot fair and square for the surprising 'Spos. Jeff Kent seems more interested in popping wheelies, Barry Bonds, and his mouth off, in that order, but he's head and shoulders over most other NL second basemen. I'd still like to see Dusty Baker cuff him one upside that inflated head, followed by Brian Sabean trading him to a contender like, say, Pittsburgh. Castillo, who provides living proof of Yogi Berra's adage that you can't hit and think at the same time, edges out Junior Spivey for the final spot because of the hitting streak, and because I still bear a small grudge against a namesake of Junior's for dumping me several years ago (hey, my heartache, my All-Star team). Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio each receive The Futility Infielder All-Star Dice Baseball 1982 Home Game.

SS: Jose Hernandez (MIL), Jimmy Rollins (PHI) Neither of these NL shortstops would make the AL team, but on the theory that I have to put somebody there, I'll go with the guy from the home team as my starter.

3B: Mike Lowell (FLA), Scott Rolen (PHI), Albert Pujols (STL). Another position where the AL has most of the top-shelf talent. Lowell gets the nod here because of a great first half. Rolen, despite all of the drama surrounding him, is having an OK but not great season; that said, he's still a better player than Tyler Houston. Pujols spent a good portion of both of the last two seasons playing third, not particularly well. Choosing him as a third baseman helps alleviate a thin crop here and an overcrowded outfield. Where has that sweet swing gone, Edgardo Alfonzo?

LF: Barry Bonds (SF), CF: Jim Edmonds (STL), RF: Shawn Green (LA), Sammy Sosa (CHC), Brian Giles (PIT), Adam Dunn (CIN), Andruw Jones (ATL), Lance Berkman (HOU), Vladimir Guerrero (MON). Nine outfielders is a bit overboard, but this is where the talent is in the National League. Barry's a no-brainer, Edmonds gets the jump on Berkman and Jones in CF because he's got the best offense-defense combo of the three. Green has been electrifying for the Dodgers, who are winning while Sosa's Cubs aren't. The roster-representation issues aren't as severe here as in the AL, because it's tough to make a case against ANY of these guys. Luis Gonzalez, Larry Walker, Bobby Abreu, and Pat Burrell will have to take their beef to the Complaint Window

P: Tom Glavine (ATL), Randy Johnson (ARI), Curt Schilling (ARI), Odalis Perez (LA), Kip Wells (PIT), Matt Morris (STL), Roy Oswalt (HOU), Eric Gagne (LA), Robb Nen (SF). Glavine gets the ball over the two Arizona starters because his ERA's a half run lower than the Big Unit, and more than a run better than Schilling. Odalis Perez has made Dodgers GM Dan Evans look pretty smart for trading Garry Sheffield. Kip Wells has made Pittsburgh GM Dave Littlefield look pretty smart as well. Eric Gagne is one of the reasons the Dodgers are in first place, and Robb Nen is the runner-up to the Big Unit in Current Pitchers I'd Least Like to Face. Pedro Astacio, Hideo Nomo and A.J. Burnett are among the cosolation prize winners here. Pittsburgh closer Mike Williams and Snakes' closer Byung-Hyun Kim (a.k.a. Byung-Hung Curve), who has rebounded nicely for Arizona after his World Series debacle, are deserving, but miss the cut here.

So, the surprising Dodgers, with the second-best record in the league, are the best represented on my All-Star team, with four players. That's probably not the way Bob Brenly would have it, but I think I've already filed my position paper on Brenly's "thinking".

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 2:15 PM Link

There Goes The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived

Ted Williams passed away today, at age 83. Our sabermetric methods show that he probably wasn't quite as good a hitter as Babe Ruth, but he did lose about five years of his prime (24-26, 33-34) to military service, so I think the distinction is debatable. That missed time took away certain membership in the 3,000 hit and 600 home run clubs, not to mention several opportunities at batting titles, MVP awards and pennants.

Williams once said, "All I want out of life is that when I walk down the street, folks will say, 'There goes the greatest hitter who ever lived.'" For the last man to hit .400 in the major leagues, the man who homered in the final at-bat of his career in 1960, that's a fitting epitaph. Rest in peace.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 1:25 PM Link

Eating Raul's Contract

Depending on how you look at it, the Raul Mondesi trade between the Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays was either a lose-lose proposition for both teams or a win-win one.

On the one hand, Toronto gave up a player who they accquired for superstar Shawn Green just two and a half years ago, and in exchange got a 26 year-old AA lefty reliever of no special pedigree. The Jays also get to pay $6 million for the privelege of NOT having the malcontent Mondesi wallowing in their outfield next season. By that same token, the Yankees acquire a perpetual underachiever whose performance this season isn't even as good as the platoon he's presumably replacing [Mondesi: .224 AVG / .301 OBP / .435 SLG; Yankee RFs (mainly Shane Spencer and John Vander Wal): .276 AVG / .341 OBP / .423 SLG]. Even without him, the Yanks almost certainly make the playoffs, and there's little point in threatening the clubhouse harmony by taking on somebody else's problem.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays get out from underneath a cumbersome contract and shed a sulking player at a time when they're trying to remake their team from the ground up. The Yanks get a bargain on a player with more tools than Black and Decker, including a howitzer for an arm and 30 HR-30 SB potential. But their needs from Mondesi aren't much different than what they hoped Robin Ventura would provide at the beginning of the year: stay healthy, play good defense, provide some occasional pop, and keep out of trouble. Mondesi shouldn't have any trouble living up to those low expectations, and probably will come closer to his career rates (.282/.335/.499).

Mondesi's acquisition may mean less playing time for another underperformer in the Yankee outfield, Rondell White (.253/.314/.393), as Spencer may steal some time from him against lefties. More likely it means less exposure and more protection for Spencer and Vander Wal, both of whom are solid bench players; Shane has become arguably the Yanks best defensive outfielder, while Vander Wal is one of the game's premier pinch-hitters. All this deal costs the Yanks is money; they didn't surrender any of their top prospects or young Yankees (Nick Johnson, Ted Lilly, Juan Rivera) in a trade, and while they do owe $7 million on Mondesi's contract next year, they're not taking on another expensive long-term commitment.

There' s no right answer as to who comes out on top here. Both organizations filled some of their needs but probably overreacted slightly in doing so. Already on pace to break their franchise home run record, the Yanks don't really need another 30-HR caliber player and would be better served by a patchwork of platooning and giving youngsters a shot. The Jays look intent on squandering an incredibly talented (though perpetually underachieving) outfield in Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz Jr. and Mondesi and are determined to play for next year at this juncture.

The best news out of all of this is that Yankee fans will now get to hear PA announcer Bob Sheppard intone one of the most mellifluous names in all of sports: "Ladies and gentlemen, now batting for the Yankees, number 45, Rauuuuuuuul Monnnnnnnndesi." Between here and late October, I'll take that.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 10:35 PM Link

One Man's All-Star Team: American League

I'm headed to Milwaukee on Wednesday, for a week-long vacation that will include not just the All-Star Game but the whole shebang--the Futures game, the Legends/Celebrity Softball Game, the Home Run Derby, batting practice, and something called the Fan Fest. In honor of my trip, I've petitioned the Food and Drug Administration to include bratwurst in the Food Pyramid as both a fruit and a vegetable, and to create a separate category for Ballpark Snacks.

While I have mixed emotions about partying in Bud Selig's back yard (and his parking lot) while Mr. Bad Rug does his worst to ensure a strike, I'm excited to add another Big Event to my Been There/Done That list. I'm taking this trip as an opportunity to provide my own brand of daily coverage from Milwaukee, sleep and computer gods willing. Maybe I can even write this sucker off...

Today I'll present my picks for the American League All-Star team, with the National League selections to follow later this week. I played by the rules of representing each team, which made for some interesting choices and some admittedly glaring omissions. Seven of my starters, eight reserves, and seven pitchers match Joe Torre's selections, and I've got one twist to offer. So without further delay...

C: Jorge Posada (NYY), A.J. Pierzynski (MIN). Last year, Posada ovetook Pudge Rodriguez as the best all-around catcher in the AL. Though his defense doesn't hold a candle to Pudge's, it's not exactly Piazza-esque, and his offense, even in a relatively down year, is better than solid; Jorgie gets on base, and he hits the ball a long, long way. Pierzynksi has generated a surprising amount of offense and deserves a good chunk of the credit for the Twins finding themselves in first place in spite of several key injuries.

1B: Jason Giambi (NYY), Mike Sweeney (KC), John Olerud (SEA). First base in the AL is packed with studs, so somebody's going to be left crying over spilled Yoo-Hoo. The top-to-bottom difference between Giambi, Sweeney, Olerud, and Jim Thome right now is seven Equivalent Runs. Give Olerud a nod for his defense, Giambi a nod for living up to the New York pressure, and Sweeney a nod for toiling in oblivion and for filling the obligatory Royals' spot on the roster. Sincere apologies to "Three -Gorilla Strong" Jim Thome and to Paul Konerko.

2B: Alfonso Soriano (NYY), Adam Kennedy (ANA). Soriano has emerged not just as a bona fide star, but as an MVP candidate. For all of his well-publicized lack of walks and 7:1 K/W ratio, the kid has a legitimate shot at a 40 HR-40 SB season, not to mention 200 hits (111 at the halfway mark), 400 total bases (202 so far), 100 RBI (he's at 48) and 120 runs scored. After a shaky start, his defense has been solid. If you can find a more exciting all-around player in the AL, put him on your own damn All-Star team. The reserves are a weak field, with last year's golden boy, Brett Boone, returning to earth in an unsurprising fashion. I'll give the nod to Kennedy, who's having a very solid season for the surprising Angels.

SS: Alex Rodriguez (TEX), Derek Jeter (NYY), Nomar Garciaparra (BOS), Omar Vizquel (CLE). There's an embarassment of riches here, but A-Rod has long since separated himself from his peers in terms of his offensive production. Jeter hasn't quite been himself yet, but he's still on pace for 200 hits and 20 homers, and he's 19/20 in stolen bases. Plus his defense is noticeably improved now that he can move to the left again. Garciaparra's finally healthy--enough said. Miguel Tejada's been good, but Joe Morgan's on crack if he thinks Tejada has surpassed all but A-Rod among the AL shortstops. I'll take Vizquel instead, in part because we need to represent Cleveland.

3B: Eric Chavez (OAK), Robin Ventura (NYY), Eric Hinske (TOR), Shea Hillenbrand (BOS). More riches. Robin Ventura's stabilized the left side of the Yankee infield defensively and put up some monster numbers. Eric Chavez has been strong in Oakland after a red-hot start. Eric Hinske and Shea Hillenbrand have had breakout years. Tony Batista has re-emerged as a good hitter. Troy Glaus and Corey Koskie also have a case. No one's head-and-shoulders above anybody else here, but I'll give the nod to Oakland's Chavez because he's on my fantasy team and I see more of him on a day-to-day basis (sort of) than anybody but Ventura.

LF: Manny Ramirez (BOS), CF: Torii Hunter (MIN), RF: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) Maglio Ordonez (CHW), Randy Winn (TB), Melvin Mora (BAL), Robert Fick (DET). When he's healthy, Ramirez is awesome; his .371 EqA is tops in the AL by 22 points over Jason Giambi. Hunter has starred for the Twins this season with the bat and the glove, and Ichiro has raised his OBP by 50 points, having surpassed last year's walk total by June 11. I'm unabashedly covering my roster requirements with reserves Winn, Mora, and Fick, all of whom have their merits, but none of who are honestly as worthy as Bernie Williams, Johnny Damon, Mike Cameron, or even Garrett Anderson. Those men win three-day vacations for their troubles.

P: Derek Lowe (BOS), Roy Halladay (TOR), Pedro Martinez (BOS), Freddie Garcia (SEA), Barry Zito (OAK), Eddie Guardado (MIN), Kazuhiro Sasaki (SEA), Steve Karsay (NYY), Bartolo Colon (CLE). Count Colon as a selection with an asterisk, the 31st man; in my All-Star game he gets to pitch an inning for each side without costing either team a roster spot. If you've got a more cockamamie idea, I'll help you start your own damn web site. Lowe gets the ball for a spectacular first half that included a no-hitter, and also because I'm willing to test the theory that his arm will be crying for mommy in August as the innings pile up. We'll give him a couple more here. Pedro's leading the league in K's, is 10-2 and third in ERA (behind Lowe and Colon), and while he isn't exactly the one in the catalog right now, he's still better than most of the rest of the league. Halladay's come back from his 10.64 ERA in 2000 and been the one of the brightest spots for the Jays this season. There are a truckload of pitchers around the next rung for consideration; I chose Garcia and Zito over Mark Buehrle, David Wells (even more burly), Jeff Weaver, Jamie Moyer, Ramon Ortiz, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina... you get the idea. Among closers, Mariano Rivera, Eddie Guardado, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Troy Percival, and Ugueth Urbina all merit consideration. Rivera's recent stint on the DL is enough to keep him at home, but it also offers me a good excuse to reward set-up man Steve Karsay, who's been just as important to the Yanks. From the closers, I'll take Everyday Eddie because he's got more games and innings than the rest of that bunch (living up to the name) and Sasaki because he's allowed only three earned runs.

So that's it. Six Yankees, five Red Sox, four Mariners, three Twins, two A's, two Jays, and one from everywhere else, plus Colon. The Angels certainly deserve better than one representative, but the Yanks, Red Sox, and M's had players on the bubble who didn't make it and had a better case. You can't please all the people all of the time, and I doubt too many Angels fans are reading this...

Postscript: Pedro Martinez opted out of the All-Star Game, saying he preferred to rest his fragile body. In other sports, players such as Karl Malone (who bangs bodies 82 times a year without missing a game, rather than taking the hill once every five days) have been nearly crucified for similar comments and forced to appear at the game under duress. I'll let it slide without the deservedly catty comment, boot his ass off the team, and replace him with Troy Percival (getting the nod over Mark Buehrle) due to pressure from the surprisingly vocal Angels' lobby (see comment).

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 9:21 PM Link