Johnnie B. Paycheck and the Musical Chairs

Back in elementary school, a teacher once told me that the surest way to get somebody to think of something was to tell them explicitly NOT to think about it. An order not to think about elephants produces nothing but deep thoughts about those pachyderms. So it's been with Bud Selig's edict prohibiting teams from making any managerial announcements during the World Series. Selig's reasoning was that such news would detract from the action on the field, lest four and a half hours per night of whooshes, clangs, thundersticks and McCarver-blather fail to remind us that there's a ballgame going on. But if anything, Selig's pronouncement only heightened the intensity of media speculation over the current round of managerial musical chairs, and revealed more leaks in baseball's front offices than a 99 Cent Store Life Raft.

In the catbird seat is Dusty Baker, who now stands one win away from validating a widely held opinion that he's the best manager in the game with a World Series trophy. That Baker may turn around and whisper the immortal words of Johnny Paycheck ("Take this job and shove it!") to Giants owner Peter Magowan only adds to the drama, not to mention the media feeding frenzy. Recent reports have Baker bound for Seattle, Chicago, and, in a fanciful bit of speculation by ESPN's Ray Ratto, across the Bay to Oakland.

Seattle's doors are open because Lou Piniella, with one more year on his contract, yet no apparent desire to remain in the Emerald City, requested the opportunity to work closer to his Tampa home. The Mariners management, while offering to free Piniella, took his closer-to-home request at face value, and allowed the Devil Rays to negotiate compensation -- said to be All-Star outfielder Randy Winn -- in the event Piniella agreed to a contract. But the M's played hardball when it came to Piniella possibly returning to New York to manage the Mets; no compensation could be agreed upon between the two teams, thus preventing the Mets from even interviewing Piniella. Though they're fairly bereft of high-level prospects that might entice Seattle, the more likely story is that Mariner management simply gave Sweet Lou a sour kiss-off. Sour to the tune of $13 million over 4 years to manage in his own backyard a team that's never won 70 games in a season. It's worth remembering, of course, that Piniella's the manager who turned the Mariners around after a decade and a half of post-expansion futility.

As for Oakland, their bench is now officially vacant. They willingly let Howe go to the Mets because, as Ratto writes, "after helping drag the Athletics out of Contraction Row... general manager Billy Beane saw less in Howe than the American League standings did. Now that's perverse." Howe had been on the hot seat in each of the past three seasons, in part because he demonstrated more resistance to Beane-ball than the GM (and perhaps the owner) preferred. Slow starts by the A's in each of the past two seasons didn't help. But most damning in his critics' eyes was his inability to win the big one -- literally. Merely one game away from advancing to the second round of the playoffs in each of the past three years, the A's went 0-6 as they failed to close out the Yankees (twice) and the Twins.

Not to be forgotten is that Billy Beane has been sitting on the hottest managerial prospect in the game for some time now; this past spring, Beane denied the Red Sox permission to interview bench coach Ken Macha for Joe Kerrigan's job. With Macha making the rounds as a candidate, reportedly even offered the Milwaukee Brewers job, and still in the running for the Cubs slot (and perhaps the Mariners one as well), Beane likely felt that he couldn't afford to lose the man he preferred to his sitting (duck) manager.

As for the Dusty-cross-the-Bay, it's highly unlikely, which didn't prevent Ratto from floating the thought balloon:

While the A's might not seem all that keen on paying a new manager four times what they paid only grudgingly to the old guy, it's still a fascinating thought that begs the question: How much is it worth to you to stick your finger in another guy's eye up to the second knuckle?

Understand here that Schott and San Francisco owner Peter Magowan regard each other with the same mutual feeling one normally finds with firemen and arsonists. The most charitable way to put it is that each man dreams nightly of driving the other into the sea.

But would Steve Schott make Peter Magowan a fool for $4 million?

Ratto's conclusion is that such a scenario is no more perverse than anything else in this saga. But cross-bay animosity is one thing; cold, hard cash is another, and the Cubs may be the team willing to dig the deepest for Baker. Aside from the 1-2 punch of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, and a pile of that green stuff, it's hard to see what Chicago has that SF doesn't. Though it's in its infancy, Pac Bell rivals Wrigley Field as one of the game's great ballparks, Barry Bonds has it all over Sammy Sosa, and it's been 57 years since the Cubs went to a World Series and 94 since they won one. Dusty's a stubborn man, but that stubborn?

Meanwhile, the reception of the Mets new manager (not officially, of course) by the New York media is an unjustly cold one. "Settled for" seems to be the preferred choice of words, and by them you'd think that Howe couldn't manage his way out of a paper bag. Never mind the fact that Howe racked up 298 wins over the past three years piloting a ballclub with one of the game's lowest payrolls -- one that finished ahead of Piniella's team twice. Or that the last manager to be dubiously received in this town, "Clueless Joe" Torre, has done rather well for himself and his employer. That parallel wasn't lost on Roberto Alomar, who told the New York Post, "It reminds me of '96 when the Yankees got Joe Torre and everyone was hammering him. What did they do? They ended up winning a world championship."

Howe's laid-back style is 180 degrees from that of his predecessor, Bobby Valentine, which may be exactlyt what the Mets need after tuning out Bobby V's often-grating words. Not that Valentine should have been the sole scapegoat for the Mets lousy season; general manager Steve Phillips' acquisitions of too many expensive and over-the-hill players (while gutting an already thin farm system) sealed their fate early. The player also carry their fair share of the blame; when geniuses like Mo Vaughn and Roger Cedeno admit late in the season that they actually need to keep themselves in shape, one has to wonder how they've survived all these years.

Howe made his reputation in Oakland working with a young, bargain-basement team. While the Mets don't have much in the way of youngsters (or bargains), that reputation might be inaccurate -- young players such as Terrence Long and Ramon Hernandez stagnated in their development, while Carlos Pena washed out early and was shipped off to Detroit. On the other hand, the trio of great young pitchers Howe had in Oakland flourished on his watch; it remains to be seen whether Howe will be able to import pitching coach (and New Jersey native) Rick Peterson. And Howe seemed to do just fine with the veterans; to my recollection, Kenny Rogers was the only player to ask out of Oakland recently, and several A's vets, including Jason Giambi and Matt Stairs, went to bat for Howe against management when the skipper's job was on the line.

As for the pressure of New York, Howe ought to be able to handle it after hanging tough in the A's job despite the whispers and the weight of expectation. Not to sound too Peter Gammons-y, but Howe has shown character during his time as manager. He's even-tempered, classy, and he doesn't rip his players in the press. He's no Bobby V. It's revealing that the Mets gave Howe a four-year contract, providing him with more security than the GM. Phillips' job is justifiably on the line, and faced with a roster of cumbersome contracts, he may have to take a page from Billy Beane's playbook and find some bargains to patch the holes. Whether he's willing to do so remains to be seen.

With only two games and one weekend left in the baseball season, this saga will probably simplify itself come Monday, when the music stops and Piniella and Howe are introduced. By then we may know who else has found a seat. Willie Randolph? Bob Melvin? Billy Martin? Casey Stengel?

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 9:36 AM Link

Hey Jude

Jay Witasick is really making a name for himself in October baseball. Unfortunately for Witasick, that name is synonymous with futility. Tyler Kepner of the New York Times calls him "baseball's St. Jude, the patron saint of lost causes." Ouch.

Tuesday night only added to Witasick's sorry legacy. Summoned in relief of Livan Hernandez in the fourth inning with the score 5-1 Angels, Witasick surrendered three hits and a walk in only 1/3 of an inning, allowing two runs plus an inherited runner to score. Adding injury to insult, he even took a run-scoring line drive off his pitching arm, whereupon Giants manager Dusty Baker and pitching coach Dave Righetti conferred, found him not sufficiently injured to remove, and sentenced him to further beating. More insult: an RBI single by Bengie Molina. The only batter he retired was the Angels pitcher, Ramon Ortiz, who struck out looking.

Witasick, you may recall, built his legend last fall with the Yankees. He pitched in three games in the 2001 postseason, giving up runs in each. All three were losses, the last two complete drubbings, 14-3 and 15-2. Witasick didn't just mop up those games, he doused them with kerosene. In his World Series appearance, following Andy Pettitte in Game Six but supplying no relief, he allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in 1 1/3 innings, taking a 4-0 game to an absurd 13-0. His stats for that postseason: 5 innings pitched, 17 hits, 12 earned runs, and a 21.60 ERA. Turn off the ugly.

The Times' Murray Chass points out, in a separate article, that after last night Witasick has now faced 20 batters in his two World Series appearances, with 16 reaching base and 11 scoring. Ugly would be an improvement.

Witasick wasn't nearly so much of a lost cause for the Giants during the season. In 68.1 innings, he posted a 2.37 ERA, allowed only a .234 average, and struck out 54 batters. Of course, Dusty Baker was smart enough to keep him out of games where much was at stake; Witasick's line for the season was 1-0 with 0 saves and only 4 holds (a dumb statistic, but considering he got a hold for his one batter-one walk performance in Game Two, a telling one). One could sense Baker's regard for Witasick as cannon fodder last night, ordering him through the ol' up-down-up-down-up in the bullpen before bringing him in. No, it isn't bad enough to be Witasick time yet, one imagines Dusty saying to himself.

Of course, these Angels have been slapping the ball around enough to make several of the Giants pitchers look silly. Witasick can take a seat alongside Hernandez, Russ Ortiz, Felix Rodriguez, and the pitching staffs of the Minnesota Twins, the New York Yankees, and several others in the American League in that regard.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 9:53 PM Link

K-Rod and Other October Surprises

It certainly appears there's something to my assertion that Angels phenom Francisco Rodriguez, now known as K-Rod, may indeed be the real Rally Monkey. During Sunday night's epic slugfest, the Halos scored three more runs to back his three dazzling innings, coming from behind 9-8 to beat the Giants, 11-10. The Angels have now scored 26 runs to back K-Rod's 13 postseason frames, enabling him to garner five wins in October.

Even the Angels are bying into it. Says fellow reliever Ben Weber, "I don't think Frankie is just lucky to be in there when our offense comes alive. Seeing him come in and do what he does to teams has a way of firing everybody up. I don't think it's a coincidence they hit for him."

Practically every sports section in America has at least one article on K-Rod today. In the Daily News, they're even giving Brian Cashman heat for not signing him. According to the Yankee GM, the Angels outbid the Yanks, who weren't willing to give the young Venezuelan the $950,000 bonus that the Halos offered. Who said George wins every bid?

Rodriguez is hardly the first unheralded player to surprise everybody in the postseason. ESPN's Jim Baker weighs in with a Baker's Dozen of October surprises, including Dusty Rhodes, Gene Tenace, Brian Doyle, Buddy Biancalana, Kurt Bevacqua, and current Angels hitting coach Mickey Hatcher, who hit .368 with 2 HR and 5 RBI against the A's in 1988. Number 13 on the list (which requires a subscription to ESPN Insider) is Dr. Bobby Brown, who never found a full-time job as a big-league player but did go on to become President of the American League. Notably absent from the list is Howard Ehmke, the surprise starter for Connie Mack's Philadelphia A's against the Chicago Cubs in 1929. Ehmke, at the tail end of his career, struck out a Series record 13 Cubs, but never won another game in the big leagues.

• • • • •

Given how much I've enjoyed the first two games of this World Series, I don't want to nitpick too much. But in Game One, Mike Scioscia made a move that's still driving me crazy. In the bottom of the eighth inning, the Angels trailed 4-3, facing Giants righty Tim Worrell. With two outs, Worrell walked first baseman Scott Spiezio. Scioscia sent in designated pinch-runner Chone Figgins (I love that name) to run for Spiezio, and with weak-hitting catcher Bengie Molina (596 OPS) due up next, the decision to pinch-hit for him was a no-brainer.

It was Scioscia's choice of pinch-hitters that bothered me. He had only one left-handed batter on his bench, Orlando Palmeiro, and three righties, Alex Ochoa, Shawn Wooten, and Jose Molina. With his 626 OPS, Molina bears a bit too much family resemblance to his brother, and he was slated to enter the game as catcher anyway, so we won't consider him among Scioscia's options:

           REG SEASON     POST       RUNNER ON     vs. RHP
           OBP   SLG    OBP   SLG    OBP   SLG    OBP   SLG
Palmeiro  .368  .354			.000  .000   .377  .367   .348  .341
Ochoa     .361  .404   .000  .000   .331  .270   .361  .416
Wooten    .331  .442   .471  .647   .368  .481   .333  .429

Scioscia played the straight platoon, choosing Palmeiro, despite the fact that he doesn't even hit righties as well as the other two (689 OPS vs 777 for Ochoa and 752 for Wooten). Palmeiro's virtue is that he can take a walk, but he's got almost zero pop in his bat (3 major-league homers in over 1600 plate appearances). With two outs and a man on first, a single or walk would have kept the inning going, which is certainly nice. Wooten, on the other hand, offers a reasonable amount of thunder and a chance to drive in Figgins; he's been swinging the bat very well during the postseason, not to mention relatively frequently (17 at bats, while the while the other two have seven between them). Since Scioscia ended up putting Wooten in the ballgame as the defensive replacement for Spiezio, why the hell didn't he just let him swing the stick as well?

Scioscia's preference for Palmeiro (who ultimately popped out foul to third base) in that situation may have been tied to keeping the inning alive for Adam Kennedy, who's swinging the bat well enough to be called the most feared #9 hitter in baseball. But I still think the Angles best option was taking a shot at a big hit by the Man from Moose Jaw.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 8:13 AM Link