My eyes were too numb at the end of my previous piece to tack on an analysis of Expos pitcher Bartolo Colon, whose numbers I ran because he's been the subject of trade rumors here and there. Given that the New York Post has twice in the past week
floated rumors about the Yanks acquiring Colon, he merits a further look.
Bartolo Colon is a big righthander who's gotten downright beefy; between his
Baseball-Reference debut profile and his current
ESPN one he's chunked up 50 pounds. He's also
aged rapidly, one of dozens of Latin American players whose birthates were "adjusted" this past spring. Colon added two years, making him 30 in May.
Until last June, Colon was the ace of the Cleveland Indians. Off to a 10-4, 2.55 ERA start, he finally looked to be living up to his dazzling potential. But his trade signaled a sad recognition that after nearly a decade as the big dog in the AL Central, the Indians were no longer contenders. What a suprise for Colon, then, that being traded to a contender meant shipping out to Montreal. Though the team never gained enough momentum to threaten for a playofff spot, Colon continued to pitch well and pulled off the rare feat of winning 20 games split between two leagues.
The win total was his highest, and his ERA his best by 0.78 runs. But as good as that season was, his stats may present some signs for concern. For one thing, Colon's strikeout level was down considerably:
IP K K/9 K/W
1998 204 158 6.97 2.00
1999 205 161 7.07 2.12
2000 188 212 10.15 2.16
2001 222 201 8.15 2.23
2002 233 149 5.75 2.13
car 1147 947 7.43 2.07
Whoa. His K rate deteriorated by over 40% in a two-year span, yet Colon not only kept winning, his performance with regards to preventing runs actually improved. What gives? If you've learned anything by my efforts over the past week or so, you know where I'm headed: DIPS and balls in play.
BABIP
1998 .303
1999 .273
2000 .301
2001 .309
2002 .274 (.267 CLE, .281 MON)
car .293
The vaunted Indians defense certainly wasn't doing him many favors the past few years, a trend which dramatically reversed in the first half of 2002 (so much for Roberto Alomar, eh?). Colon's Defense-Independent ERA (or dERA) overall was a respectable but not dazzling 3.92.
The biggest problem of Colon's own making (besides his waistline, perhaps) has been his walk rate. His ratio of strikeouts to walks has remained remarkably consistent over the years, even though his K rate has fluctuated dramatically. At his strikeout peak, he was walking 4.69 batters per 9 innings, which is Too Damn Many. Last season, he lowered that below 3 per 9 for the first time in his career, contributing to his positive results.
The Post reports that the Yanks have talked with the Expos about swapping Colon for DH/1B Nick Johnson and another player (outfielder Juan Rivera has been mentioned). The righthander is signed through next season; the Post reports that he'll make $8.25 million, while the
Baseball Contracts Page lists his salary at $6 mil, a total which jibes with
other reports. Given that the Post can't even be bothered to correct Colon's age (still reporting he's 27) and the fact that it is after all, THE POST, all of this should be taken with a shakerful of salt. New York's other tabloid, the
Daily News, reports that Colon isn't even on the market, as the Expos have yet to receive a budget from the commissioner's office (recall that the Expos are owned by the other 29 teams). GM Omar Minaya believes he's got a contender on his hands and is in no hurry to conduct a fire sale.
Should the Yankees acquire Colon, it would almost certainly spell the end of Roger Clemens' tenure in pinstripes. The rotation would get younger and the short-term contract savings for the rotation would be significant. At his best, Colon's as unhittable as any pitcher in either league. But the costs would affect them in other ways. Dealing prospects Johnson and Rivera would deprive the Yankees of some affordable young talent, and in Johnson's case, perhaps a future star. It would increase the likelihood that they'd sign another hitter, as the DH slot would then be open. Trading Rivera leaves no internal candidates to replace corner outfield busts Rondell White or Raul Mondesi other than Shane Spencer, whose window of opportunity as a starter has long since closed.
Not to mention the fact that the warning signs are there on Colon. I didn't see him pitch last season, so I have no idea whether he's lost some gas off his high-90s fastball, but that dropping strikeout rate should be cause for genuine alarm. His conditioning doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. In short, this is a far cry from what Roger Clemens brings to the table, damn the cost and the age difference. This looks like anything but a super savings for the Yanks.
• • • • •
I'd like to pass on my best Thanksgiving wishes to all of my readers and fellow bloggers. I have a lot to thankful for, starting with a wonderful family, great friends, a lovely girlfriend, good health, and a job I enjoy on most days. Sometime before the mashed potatoes hit the plate, I urge you to take a moment and count your blessings during this holiday season. Happy Turkey, everybody!
Remaking the Yankees for 2003, Part III: Filling the Rotation
In my last installment, I broke down the performance of the Yankees' 2002 pitching rotation, using traditional stats, rate stats and DIPS to gain different perspectives on their starters' performance. This time we'll see how the team's options stack up for 2003.
Having spent all of last season with a surplus of starters, the Yanks have enough parts at hand to construct an excellent (though not dazzling) rotation. They hold contracts on three of last season's starters: Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and David Wells, plus Jeff Weaver, whom they acquired last summer with the intent to include him in this year's rotation. Where they go from this point is the real question.
Roger Clemens is a free agent, likely to be expensive (upwards of $10 million per season). Orlando Hernandez is arbitration-eligible but likely less expensive ($6-7 million per season). Sterling Hitchcock, under contract for $6 million, is being shopped to reduce payroll, his performance in pinstripes too shaky to merit consideration for a starting spot. If the Yankees are serious about cutting costs, they could let Clemens walk and keep El Duque. They could sign Clemens and trade El Duque, who could fetch a solid bat to cover third base or a corner outfield spot in a trade. They may NEED to include El Duque in a package in order to clear Hitchcock's or outfielder Raul Mondesi's salary from the books.
In a slow free-agent market, Clemens has yet to receive serious attention from any team, including from the Yankees. While Texas and Boston have been mentioned as possible destinations, neither team has shown more than lukewarm interest, let alone made an offer. National League teams touted as potential suitors by
Bob Klapisch (the Astros and the Mets) seem even less inclined to entice Clemens to leave the AL.
The most actively courted free-agent pitcher this offseason has been Tom Glavine, with the Mets, Phillies and Braves all making offers. With Greg Maddux seen as more likely to re-sign with Atlanta, Glavine at first glance looks like the prize of the class, coming off an 18-11, 2.96 ERA season. But he may not be all that he's cracked up to be.
As I did with the Yankee staff, I took a look at the stats for 14 starters listed among
ESPN's Top 50 Free Agents. The only one on that list whom I didn't include was Jon Lieber, who will be coming back from Tommy John surgery and thus unavailable until late in the season. This selection includes some obvious no-gos for the Big Apple, such as Kenny Rogers (been there, done that) and Shawn Estes (flushed out of Flushing), but it gives a more complete picture of just what the market is. I also included a few names tossed around in this winter's trade winds (one who's already changed addresses) and the two big-named Yanks currently without contracts. Here they are:
2003
Age W L IP ERA K/9 WHIP K/W HR/9 BFP BABIP dERA
Clemens 40 13 6 180.0 4.35 9.60 1.31 3.05 0.90 768 .316 3.34
Finley 40 11 15 190.7 4.15 8.21 1.37 2.23 0.61 809 .313 3.43
Maddux 37 16 6 199.3 2.62 5.33 1.20 2.62 0.63 820 .282 3.59
Williams 36 9 4 103.3 2.53 6.62 1.05 3.04 0.87 412 .249 3.77
Hernandez 37 8 5 146.0 3.64 6.97 1.14 3.14 1.05 606 .264 3.91
Colon 30 20 8 233.3 2.93 5.75 1.24 2.13 0.77 966 .274 3.92 (not FA)
Moyer 40 13 8 230.7 3.32 5.74 1.08 2.94 1.09 931 .244 4.34
Trachsel 32 11 11 173.7 3.37 5.44 1.38 1.52 0.83 741 .279 4.34
Haynes 30 15 10 196.7 4.12 5.77 1.48 1.56 0.96 852 .304 4.35
Glavine 37 18 11 224.7 2.96 5.09 1.28 1.63 0.84 936 .269 4.39
Byrd 32 17 11 228.3 3.90 5.08 1.15 3.39 1.42 935 .259 4.39
Rogers 38 13 8 210.7 3.84 4.57 1.34 1.53 0.90 892 .278 4.48
Estes 30 5 12 160.7 5.10 6.11 1.58 1.31 0.73 713 .317 4.48
Daal 31 11 9 161.3 3.90 5.86 1.21 1.94 1.12 668 .252 4.54
Valdes 29 8 12 196.0 4.18 4.68 1.23 2.17 1.19 818 .265 4.57
Neagle 32 8 11 164.3 5.26 6.08 1.42 1.76 1.42 724 .280 4.72 (not FA)
Helling 32 10 12 175.7 4.51 6.15 1.30 2.50 1.59 751 .273 4.82
Hampton 30 7 15 178.7 6.15 3.73 1.79 0.81 1.21 838 .318 5.38 (not FA)
Person 33 4 5 87.7 5.44 6.26 1.48 1.20 1.33 388 .256 5.58
I sorted these pitchers not by wins or by ERA but by our new friend, Defense Independent ERA (dERA). As I discussed last time, dERA is a
better predictor of next season's ERA than the ERA itself. Because it assumes that the results on balls in play will even out over time, it places a premium on the outcomes controlled by the pitcher's skill -- strikeouts, walks, and homers. The pitchers whose dERAs are the lowest are the ones with a combination of good strikeout rates (K/9), good control (K/W), and low homer rates (HR/9). That's a veritable shopping list for a quality pitcher right there.
Notice that the BABIP figures are all over the place. Roger Clemens, Chuck Finley, Shawn Estes and Mike Hampton are within five points of each other, giving up hits like crazy, though with diverging results. Meanwhile, Robert Person, Omar Daal, Ismael Valdes, Paul Byrd, Woody Williams and Jamie Moyer are at the other end of the spectrum, giving up very few hits on balls in play, yet failing in their quests for world domination. That figure doesn't tell you much about the quality of the pitcher.
What strikes me as most interesting about the pitchers on this list are the low strikeout rates. Strikeout rates themselves are good indicators of a pitcher's future success, and if that's the case, we won't be seeing a hell of a lot of future success from this bunch. The AL average was 6.26 strikeouts per nine innings last season, while the NL was higher, 6.77, making the major league average 6.53. Only THREE of the 19 pitchers listed above have rates above their league average (or the ML average, in the case of those who split their time between leagues), and two of those are Yankees (or not, perhaps). Only eight of the 19 are with 0.5 of the ML average. Hardly a bumper crop of free agents.
Back to Glavine. The venerable Braves southpaw had an impressive season based on his won-loss record and ERA. But any team thinking along the lines of a
4-year/$44 million contract for the 37-year-old pitcher ought to think again. DIPS doesn't paint a rosy picture of his season; Glavine's dERA is a mere 4.39. A low strikeout rate (just over 5 per 9 innings), unimpressive control (1.63 K/W, well below the league average of 1.93), and a relatively lucky .269 average on balls in play do not herald another Cy Young either. It is worth noting that Glavine has succeeded with records like these before; in fact, he's made a career out of it, but you'd be hard pressed to find too many others who get away with this combination. His BABIP in 16 major-league seasons is .278, which is a bit lower than we might otherwise expect. It compares favorably to a few other semi-randomly selected pitchers whose career BABIPs I took a few moments to calculate. Four of these guys come from the free-agent list, two you know already, and the other two are a couple of guys who stuck around the game for only a quarter of a century :
Glavine .278
Maddux .279
John .284
Clemens .286
RJohnson .291
Morgan .291
Finley .297
Not a hell of a difference in a stat where Mike Morgan can match Randy Johnson over the course of a long career. On a typical workhorse season of 500 balls in play, ten points in batting average (.010) comes out to be five hits, five hits that stayed in the yard. Big deal.
What does this all mean for the Yanks? Before spending a week building my spreadsheet, my gut feeling was that they had several other viable free-agent options besides Clemens, including the marquee Atlantans. If you're going to shell out big bucks, I reasoned, why not go a few years younger and chase Glavine or Maddux? But looking at this, it's clear that even at age 40, the Rocket is still at the head of the class. He's MILES beyond these other pitchers with his strikeout rate, and he's still got great control. His 4.35 ERA last season is more a product of lousy luck than a decline in his ability. As much as we can trust projections of any pitcher, Clemens projects very well.
What Clemens does lack, increasingly, is stamina. He hasn't completed a game since 2000, and he no longer eats innings the way a #1 starter, even an aged power-pitching one, should -- I mean, a #1 supposed to be the guy who gives the bullpen a night off, right? Ten times in his 29 starts, Clemens didn't make it past 5 innings, and only three times did he make it through 8 innings. A couple of times leaving games due to being hit by a batted ball here, a few twinges there, and an annual trip to the DL with a nagging lower-body injury don't paint a picture of a rough, tough take-no-guff cowboy (
guff?). They show an aging athlete whose body doesn't spring back the way it used to, who may not be able to carry the burden of being Numero Uno.
Much has been made by some local writers of the value of having Clemens chase his 300th victory (he's at 293) while still in a Yankee uniform. Given that the Yanks haven't had any problem selling tickets recently (they set their all-time attendance record in 2002, with 3,465,807), this is highly overrated. It's certainly not worth paying a premium for, given that Rocket isn't exactly inclined towards sentimentality over the matter; after all, he could have taken his $10.3 million "buyout" as a contract for next season.
What it likely comes down to for the Yanks is whether they're willing to commit something like 2 years/$20 million on a pitcher who is -- six years too late to save Dan Duquette -- heading into the twilight of his career. That still makes more sense than spending for four years worth of Glavine, absolutely. But does it make as much sense as letting him walk and completing the rotation with El Duque, who fares pretty well in the comparison above and who might cost them 2 years/$12 million as their fifth starter?
If Mike Mussina had dominated in 2002 the way he did in 2001, if Andy Pettitte had put together a full season at the level he's shown tantalizing glimpses of over the past couple, maybe even if David Wells hadn't thrown the Yankee org's dental insurance rates out of whack (anybody think Steinbrenner's
petty raid on his employees' dental plan was completely random spite?), I think the Yankees would consider the top of their rotation complete and make do without Clemens, unless he came cheap. But I don't think they have the courage to do that right now, not when coupled with the way they've jerked Hernandez around (and vice versa) over the past several seasons. Signing Rocket will make lowering their payroll costs harder, and it won't win them any points for creativity, but it's not the most horrible baseball decision in the world.
