Crash Courses and Short Stops

An Opening Day blowout in wintry conditions with the team's marquee signing being booed off the field would have been preferable to what the Yanks experienced on Monday night. Less than three innings into their first ballgame, a season flashed in front of the Yankees' collective eyes at the sight of Derek Jeter writhing in agony, the result of a violent collision at third base with Blue Jays catcher Ken Huckaby.

While several Yankees initially assumed the play had been a dirty one, replays -- as well as the shots of a chastened Huckaby -- dismissed that accusation. Having seen the replay from several angles, I'd say Huckaby's play was overly aggressive, but no more so than Jeter's play. On first base with one out and the infield extremely shifted against Jason Giambi, Jeter tried to take third on an infield grounder. In a headfirst slide, his shoulder met the 205-pound Huckaby's armored and rapidly traveling knee as the catcher leaped to cover third. The results were not pretty.

The preliminary diagnosis is that Jeter separated his left (non-throwing) shoulder and will miss at least six weeks. An orthopedic surgeon quoted in the New York Post (or was that a wino quoted on the subway?) opined that Jeter would need two to four months to return, depending upon whether surgery was required. Baseball Prospectus injury expert Will Carroll was less sanguine in his assessment. Comparing Jeter's injury to various other dislocations (including that suffered by the Padres' Phil Nevin, who is shelved for the year), Carroll wrote, "The outlook is not good. I cannot find a situation where a player was able to come back in-season from this type of injury." But until an MRI can be done to assess the soft tissue damage in Jeter's shoulder, all of this is speculation; that procedure is scheduled for Thursday, when the Yankees hit Tampa.

For the time being, the Yanks say that they'll fill Jeter's spot from within the organization, promoting AAA Columbus shortstop Erick Almonte while using futilityman Enrique Wilson as his caddy. Despite whatever rosy picture the Yankee brass is painting today, neither is likely to hold the position for very long. The former is a 25-year old who's gone from prospect to suspect thanks to a year spent brooding enough to earn a demotion back down to AA. In two tours of Columbus, he's shown flashes of potential (21 homers and a .443 slugging percentage) along with glaring weaknesses (a 4-to-1 K/W ratio last year and 45 errors in 163 games). Overall his AAA numbers (.267/.336/.443) don't herald the next Jeter, Soriano, or even D'Angelo Jiminez. Wilson, if anything, is even more suspect, having aged rapidly enough to justify his Luis Sojo-like set of chins if not the .181/.239/.295 line he posted last year. For years with Cleveland he was touted as a serious prospect, but when his skills are dragged into the harsh light of day it's not a pretty picture. On a good day he's an adequate glove man, but overall he's the living embodiment of the replacement level. Only Joe Torre's foibles at choosing his bench keep him in pinstripes.

The irony is that Jeter's injury serves to highlight just how durable he's been over the course of his major league career. He's averaged 154 games a year over his seven full seasons, with a low of 148 in 2000. The Yanks haven't needed much of a contingency plan in that timespan and have steered their best shortstop prospects (Soriano, Jiminez, Christian Guzman, Bronson Sardinha) to other positions or other teams while settling for the Sojos and Wilsons as backups. In all, they've been without Jeter only 57 times (including Tuesday) with the starts doled out as follows, according to YES Network:

L. Sojo      25
E. Wilson    12
A. Soriano    5
C. Bellinger  5
A. Fox        5
W. Delgado    3
A. Arias      1
R. Sanchez    1

This honor roll of futilitymen hasn't exactly been Jeter-beaters, managing only a .222 average with 2 homers and 9 RBI. The Yanks, however, haven't suffered much in his absence, going 36-21 without him, for a higher winning percentage (.632) than they had with him (651-424, .605). Of course, that's a pretty small sample size for anyone to draw conclusions that Jeter's glove is holding the Yankees back.

The question becomes how disciplined the Yanks can be in handling this situation. Countless middle-infield stopgaps, most of them better than the Yanks' current options, dot the landscape; one Baseball Primer poster even went out of his way to list them. Among the more appealing options are Desi Relaford, Chris Gomez, and Melvin Mora -- guys who won't make you forget Jeter, but could easily make you forget Enrique Whatzisname by the time you finish reading this. Should the Yanks momentarily falter or their shortstops struggle, getting one of these guys for a Grade B prospect is a possible route. Should Jeter's season be shot entirely, look for the Yanks to pursue a high-profile, overpriced glove man, such as (ugh) Neifi Perez or Rey Ordoņez (currently chasing the cycle (!) as I write this).

While it's tough to get excited about these stopgaps, it's probably tougher to see this hampering the Yanks enough to threaten their spot in the postseason. With the addition of Hideki Matsui and the anticipated development of Nick Johnson, the Yanks will score enough to support an offensive cipher in the Jeter-hole. But given the organization's ability to throw money at a problem and Joe Torre's comfort with Experienced Veterans, it's perhaps toughest of all to imagine the Yankees simply standing pat.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 12:01 AM Link

Still Mattering

My friend John Perricone's been having some technical difficulties that that have taken a bite out of his Only Baseball Matters weblog. As a fellow Blogger user, I can only shudder at the potential havoc he must have endured, having barely skirted disaster on that front myself recently. John's asked me to tell you, dear readers, that he's back in the saddle. Go read him.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 8:50 PM Link

Two Words: Play Ball!

Why is this man smiling? Because Opening Day is finally here. After a winter of my discontent, and some seriously nasty weather, the arrival of the baseball season feels completely refreshing. Perhaps especially so, since this season carries no imminent threat of labor strife. There'll be no strikes, just balls flying every which way for the next seven months.

Alas, all is not right with the world. This country's current war on Iraq, an 800-lb gorilla (or is that guerilla?) of bad news, does dampen my enthusiasm a bit. As does the forced patriotism which apparently mandates crowds chanting "U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!" after singing "God Bless America" during every seventh-inning stretch. While I don't intend to make this column a soapbox about my views on the war, suffice it to say that I look forward to the day when ballpark displays of zeal are connected merely to the two teams on the playing field.

So without further ado, and as my obligations as a Writer of Stuff dictate, I'll offer some predictions for the season. While I didn't do so hot last season (that Yanks-Astros World Series never materialized), rest assured that the past year has increased my baseball wisdom sufficiently that desperate gamblers in Vegas are breathlessly awaiting the following:

AL East: Yanks, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays. Last year I figured the Rays might surpass the Orioles; this year, despite the presence of Lou Piniella, I harbor no such illusions. So these folks will finish in exactly the same order they have for the past five seasons, with the Sox giving the Yanks a better chase than recent years, falling short but stealing the Wild Card spot.
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals, Tigers. Despite their new Colon, the Sox won't catch the Twins, who have plenty of pitching and hitting depth to carry them. Both will have plenty of fun at the expense of the division's pretenders.
AL West: A's, Angels, Mariners, Rangers. The A's will continue their rise, the defending champion Angels will discover that "career year" means it only happens once, and the Mariners will keep fading. The Rangers should show some improvement, but nobody will give a Buck.

NL East: Phillies, Braves, Expos, Mets, Marlins. The Braves rotation which dominated the NL East has been scattered, not quite to the four winds but to a couple of the other teams within the division. Glavine won't be a great loss for them (or a great help for the Mets), but Millwood --with some help from Jim Thome -- will be the difference. The Mets will surprise nobody except Steve Phillips when they continue to look like last year's Mets.
NL Central: Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Pirates, Brewers. I should be done predicting anything for the Astros, but the Cards have too many injury questions for me to pick them here. Dusty Baker's magic won't withstand the harsh light of day, but their young pitchers will keep them competitive.
NL West: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Padres. Randy Johnson looks like he could carry the Diamondbacks until he's 50. Jim Tracy has made his name managing his way around an injured pitching staff; with good health he can finally take the Dodgers to the postseason. Even if Bonds is Bonds, Felipe Alou will have a rough time filling Dusty Baker's shoes.

Wild Cards: Red Sox, Dodgers
World Series: A's over Phillies. Pain me though it might, I'm pegging this to be the year the A's get over the hump. Just like every other monkey with a weblog, probably.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Lance Berkman

AL Cy Young: Last year I said "Tim Hudson. Or Mark Mulder. Or maybe Barry Zito." That prediction served me well, so I'm sticking with it.
NL Cy Young: Randy Johnson

AL "Rookie" of the Year: Hideki Matsui. You were expecting maybe Rocco Baldelli?
NL Rookie of the Year: Marlon Byrd

First Manager Fired: Lloyd McClendon. With so much of last year's deadwood swept out by slow starts and slow finishes, most of the easy targets are gone. The Orioles should put Mike Hargrove out of his misery, but I don't think he'll be so lucky.
First Manager Lynched: Larry Bowa, which is why the Phillies will get to the World Series.

World Series (Wishful Thinking Department): The last time I hunkered down to root for the Dodgers at the outset of a season, Billy Ashley was still a prospect. Though they fell short last season, the Dodgers stirred enough old loyalties for me to start caring again. And though I've spent the better part of the past seven years cheering the home team here in NYC, a Dodger-Yankee matchup wouldn't give me a moment's hesitation in choosing sides. So for the first time since I was a kid, I'll dare to dream of the continuation of the greatest World Series rivalry.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 7:20 PM Link

"I?m 91, But I?m Still Learning."

It's tempting to say that 91-year-old Buck O'Neil has forgotten more about baseball than I'll ever know. But in his interview with Bronx Banter's Alex Belth (who after interviewing Marvin Miller and Ken Burns is, dare I say, en fuego), it's abundantly clear that the Negro League legend hasn't forgotten much at all. Still with plenty on the ball, O'Neil recounts for Belth his days in the Negro Leagues, his scouting discoveries, and his take on players from bygone eras compared to those of today. What's always endeared me to O'Neil is that he never merely resorts to a things-were-better-in-my-day take on the game. Or the world, for that matter. I'm not sure how he manages to stay so positive, but it's clearly a good prescription for longevity.

--posted by Jay Jaffe at 7:17 PM Link