With 41 homers and a league-leading 141 RBI (all stats in this article are through Thursday) -- 24 more than the next closest player -- to go with his .303 average, Delgado would appear to have the superficially eye-popping stats which impress MVP voters, and a quick peek at his .428 OBP/.592 SLG/1.020 OPS might justify it from the stathead point of view. Of course Alex Rodriguez's majors-leading 47 homers, 117 RBI, and .295 might convince voters that this is finally his year, and his .394 OBP/.599 SLG/.993 OPS, not to mention his stellar play at shortstop, could convince a stathead as well. Boston's Manny Ramirez (.324 AVG/36 HR/102 RBI/.426 OBP/.582 SLG/1.008 OPS) may get a mention, but his disappearing act during the Sox's three-game series with the Yankees and the subsequent fallout should rightfully doom his candidacy. Some writers might point to the way Shannon Stewart catalyzed the Twins after being traded from the Blue Jays, but as a leadoff hitter with an overall .827 OPS, he doesn't have the numbers to go very far in a serious discussion. Likewise, we can dismiss Oakland's Miguel Tejada (.808 OPS), though teammate Eric Chavez (.282/28/99/.350/.508/.858) may get some support.
But one other candidate who's generated a buzz lately is Yankee catcher Jorge Posada, who's having the best season of his career. With 29 HR, 98 RBI and a .278 average through Thursday, Posada's Triple Crown stats are especially respectable for a catcher, and his .404/.509/.913 line can wow the statheads (late note: he hit his 30th HR -- tying Yogi Berra for the single-season Yankee catcher record -- and topped 100 RBI on Friday). Of course, Posada might have competition from his own team in the form of Jason Giambi (.253 AVG/41 HR/107 RBI/.412 OBP/.532 SLG/.944 OPS) and Alfonso Soriano (.291/36/86/.339/.522/.861). But in a season which saw the Yanks lose three of their best hitters -- Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, and Nick Johnson -- to injuries for extended periods of time and saw both Giambi and Soriano alternating feast with famine, Posada's been the rock in the Yankee lineup. His OPS by month has been between .839 and .995, compared to a 640-point swing for Giambi and a 370-point swing for Soriano. He hasn't worn down as the season progressed and as most catchers tend to do: a .954 OPS after the All-Star break, compared to .884 before. And unlike the other potential Yankee candidates, he plays a key defensive position, and plays it fairly well. He's handled a diverse pitching staff through some big ups and downs and drawn praise from every quarter along the way. He's also taken up the mantle of team leadership, going back to his vocal disgruntlement over the Yanks' surprising loss in the AL Divisional Series last season to his recent spat with the Devil Rays over beanballs.
The media seems finally to be paying attention to Posada. ESPN's Joe Morgan kicked off the Posada for MVP campaign last week. He wasn't particularly lucid, but then that's Joe Morgan for you:
The Yankees have reached the postseason seven straight years and won four of five World Series from 1996-2000. But in that time, no Yankee won the MVP. If I had a vote -- which I don't -- and if the season ended today, that would change. I would give the nod to Posada.
Morgan's comments did allude to the fact that his pet candidates from a month previous -- Giambi and Ichiro Suzuki -- had faded, a reminder that it's a good idea to keep an open mind on this stuff until the playoff races are over.
Locally, some of the New York-area writers have been taking up Posada's case. Newsday's Jon Heyman is skeptical that the writers will get the vote right, period:
Going by recent voting history, we writers will blow it big-time. Posada has been the best and most dependable player on the best team in a most difficult season, a clutch hitter who posted consistent and big numbers while squatting, particularly in the two most telling categories of on-base percentage (.407 before last night) and slugging percentage (.516), an assured leader since the day last October he said aloud what everyone else was too afraid to utter (that the Angels "wanted it more"), a superb handler of a talented but difficult pitching staff and a man with the guts to go nose to nose with Lou Piniella.
One problem is that what Posada generally goes unnoticed. Posada was the steadiest force in a Yankees season marked by turmoil and worry, a tough regular season that culminated with last night's uncharacteristically trouble-free clincher, a 7-0 whitewashing of the White Sox. Another problem with Posada's candidacy is that voting writers are too busy making October travel plans to pay attention. My guess? He finishes no better than eighth, and behind four or more players who'll watch him on TV again this October.
Here's a quick look at some of the more advanced sabermetric indicators. I've included a few other candidates, such as Seattle's Brett Boone and Boston's Nomar Garciaparra, to round out the discussion:
RARP (Runs Above Replacement Position) is Baseball Prospectus' stat based on Equivalent Runs, a park-adjusted figure which takes into account the offensive value of a player's contribution. VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is Keith Woolner's similar measure, again using position to measure offensive totals. Neither of these take actual defensive play into account. WS is Win Shares, Bill James' measure, which DOES take defense into account -- a reason I prefer it, though the actual way it measures defensive contribution is certainly controversial. Looking at these, Posada's case based strictly on the numbers is less than clearcut, even among his own teammates. And he's well behind hitting machines Delgado and Rodriguez, not to mention Brett Boone.
It's easy to create a framework around which to justify nearly any of these candidates. But I do think the team's results should be considered. So in my mind, when it comes to voting on the MVP, playing for a team that's headed for the postseason isn't a requirement, but playing for a contender is. That rules out Rodriguez, who led the Rangers to fourth place yet again, and Delgado. Boone is another superficially excellent candidate (.292/34/114/.363/.531/.893), but the Mariners' drastic fade -- which he contributed to with a second-half .792 OPS -- makes it tough for me to annoint him the MVP.
That leaves me with Ramirez, a star on the league's most devastating offensive juggernaut, and three Yankees. And while I've got no shortage of bias here, aesthetics do count for something. Manny's begging out of the Yanks-Sox series, and his reputation for the occasional loaf -- not to mention his team's response to his benching -- drives a nail right through his candidacy as far as I'm concerned. Conversely, Posada's emergence as a leader among the Yanks gives him a little extra juice. Giambi had a good year by anyone's standards but his own -- he's lost out in the MVP sweepstakes with considerably better seasons than this. Soriano's low OBP simply hampers him in these discussions like a ball and chain. So for my nickel, I'd give Posada my MVP vote.
I'll have a more comprehensive look at the awards sometime in the next few weeks.
ESPN Page 2's Jeff Merron has a tale of the tape comparison between this year's toothless Tigers and the original Not-So-Amazin' Mets, who played baseball as if it were a foreign language -- Stengelese -- which, come to think of it, provides a convenient explanation for everything. Those Mets, of course, have a whole lore at their disposal -- the baserunning and fielding gaffes of Marvelous Marv Throneberry, the short-lived agony of Don (.077) Zimmer, the indignities of Harry Chiti (traded for himself as the player to be named later) and Joe Pignatano (lining into a triple play in his final major league at-bat), and the endless quotability of Casey Stengel. These Tigers have only Mike Maroth and Jeremy Bonderman's chase for 20 losses, Carlos Pena's occasional vaporlock, and the bloated corpse of Bobby Higginson being pencilled into the lineup every day.
The Tigers may top (bottom?) the Mets in losses (they're 40-118 as of Thursday), but they won't come anywhere near the 60.5 game distance from first place that the Mets finished. On the other hand, Detroit is 27.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians, while the Mets finished "only" 24 games behind the Houston Astros. But say this for the Tigers: they haven't quit yet, having just taken two in a row from the Kansas City Royals. Still, in this long season, they're no match for the old Mets. An Orlando Sentinel headline sums up the comparison best: "'62 Mets Were Funny; Tigers just Sad, Bad".
Regarding the comparison of the current Mets to their original counterparts, the hyperbole is thicker and the art direction slicker. But then again, this is New York City, and the current Mets did just shake a 1-16 slide. In today's New York Times, manager Art Howe is depicted on a retro baseball card, along with golden oldies Zimmer and Stengel. Harvey Araton writes:
The re-emergence of the 1962 Mets as a pending news event has had me wishing they could somehow come back to play one series, four of seven, to defend their dishonor, just not against Detroit.
What I've been wondering is whether the current, woebegone Mets of September could even beat their famous ancestors who, after muffing most chances back in '62, have somehow held gamely on to the tag as the worst baseball act of all for 41 inglorious years.
By the weekend, the Tigers could be losers of 121 games and Casey Stengel's team may be downgraded to merely the most inept assemblage of so-called talent in franchise history, although the handful of masochists watching the Mets drop 16 of 17 before Tuesday night might be willing to debate this point.
Araton goes on with a position-by-position comparison of the two Mets teams and concludes that the '62 squad could beat these messy Mets. But his comparison is more than a little disingenuous, as it excludes injured outfielder Cliff Floyd, phenom shortstop Jose Reyes and second baseman Roberto Alomar in favor of reserves and replacement-level callups. On the other hand, what are Roger Cedeρo and Timo Perez if not unwitting (and witless) time travellers from that 1962 club?
Say what you will about the flawed blueprint former GM Steve Phillips left the gate with -- overpriced and over-the-hill vets such as Alomar, Tom Glavine, gimpy Mo Vaughn, an expensive middle relief corps. No team could withstand the injuries to their two best hitters (Mike Piazza and Floyd), and a suddenly emerging prospect (Reyes) and come out smelling like roses. Piazza, Alomar, and Glavine will someday be enshrined in the Hall of Fame alongside Stengel and original Met Richie Ashburn, and the rest of this nightmare season will be long forgotten.
As strange as it sounds, I'm actually headed to Shea Stadium tonight on a free ticket, more to spend time with friends I don't usually see than to witness the retirement ceremony for radio announcer Bob Murphy and shovel dirt on this year's squad. If there's something wrong with a meaningless night at the ballpark, I don't want to be right.
Ted Lilly came to the A's rescue again. On Friday and Saturday, the Seattle Mariners spanked the A's in the first two games of their series, pulling to within three games of the AL West leaders. Sunday's scheduled starter, Rich Harden, was scratched due to back spasms, and Lilly, who'd thrown a bullpen session on Saturday, reportedly went to manager Ken Macha and asked for the ball. Never mind the fact that the 27-year-old lefty was 0-4 with a 6.89 ERA in 8 starts against Seattle; this man is a different pitcher now. He tossed another gem -- 6 innings of 3-hit shutout ball, with 7 Ks -- and won his 6th straight start while the A's put the hurt on the M's, 12-0. No less than ace Tim Hudson praised Lilly for his gutsy actions as well as his performance: "We knew he had great stuff. But this is showing a new side of him that not a lot of pitchers have -- putting your team on your shoulders."
Not everybody is so convinced about Lilly. Elephants in Oakland, which keeps close tabs on the A's, notes that Lilly's full-season stats still put him around average in sabermetric terms (such as Support Neutral Wins Above Replacement or Runs Saved Above Average), and notes the less than stellar competition he's faced during this 6-0 run. "You don't label an entire season by three weeks of work," writes our pachyderm friend.
To which I'll respond that you most certainly are entitled to do so when those three weeks define your team's season, enabling you to win your division in spite of one of your aces being finished due to injury. Clutch hitting and clutch pitching don't exist as a demonstrably repeatable skill statistically, but Ted Lilly has been clutch down the stretch, and now that the A's have clinched the AL West, they can pour a few bottles over his head to thank him for his part.
Speaking of guts -- as in blowing them -- Lilly's replacement on the Yanks, Jeff Weaver, looks to have played himself off the postseason roster with his performance on Monday night. With not an ice cube's chance in hell of drawing a postseason start, Weaver needed to convince Joe Torre that he could be an effective reliever for the postseason despite his 6.75 ERA in that role. Torre tossed him into the fire in the tenth inning after Roberto Alomar led off with a single, with Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Lee due up next. The White Sox aren't going to the postseason, but that's as tough a trio as any playoff team can offer. Weaver apparently had a history of success against them, a combined .197 average, according to the New York Times.
History's bunk. Weaver walked Thomas, then threw a fat sinker to Ordonez that Mags put deep into the leftfield bleachers for a walk-off three-run homer. As Steven Goldman, who writes the essential Pinstriped Bible column, put it: "That Weaver would survive both [Thomas and Ordonez] was unlikely as President Bush and Jacques Chirac proclaiming 'International Let's Share Iraq Week' while sampling plates of hot buttered escargot and cheese fondue before heading over to a Dixie Chicks concert."
The Yanks were poised to clinch their 6th straight AL East flag with a victory on Monday, but Weaver's short performance suggested stronger drink would be necessary. In the pitcher's defense, the guy hadn't pitched in nine days. But Monday's outing was emblematic of his miserable season, and it pushed the starter-turned-reliever-turned-basketcase's ERA above 6.00. Unless the Yanks need a mop over the next week, it may be the last time he pitches this year.
Speaking of clinching, now that the Yanks have done so, that's tickets to Game One of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium for me, as well as a sushi dinner thanks to the AL Central victors.
Like the White Sox, the Royals won't win the AL Central, but their victory on Sunday was an important one. By notching their 81st victory, the Royals clinched a .500 season, closing a loophole in the contract of star first baseman Mike Sweeney. Had the Royals not reached .500 by the end of 2004, Sweeney could have opted out of his 5-year, $55-million contract.
For a team which lost 100 games last year and which hasn't seen .500 since David Cone was their ace, the Royals have pulled off an amazing turnaround this year. To have done so while their top hitter missed six weeks with back trouble is even more impressive. They ran out of arms -- hey, Jose Lima and Kevin Appier can get you only so far -- but it's clear that with Tony Pena at the helm, the Royals have hope once again.
