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My epic-length preview of the Dodgers-Phillies National League Championship Series matchup is up at Baseball Prospectus. Whatever its merits or flaws, I'm reasonably certain it's the LONGEST preview of its kind. Getting the chance to do a Playoff Prospectus is an honor, and I always try to pour myself into the project, word count be damned. To me, arriving at a prediction — Dodgers in six, in this case — isn't as important as the analysis behind it, because I don't go into the process with my mind made up. Admittedly, my knowledge of the Dodgers is deeper than that of the Phils, particularly because I already previewed their first-round series. I did the Philliestwice last year, which helped make up for seeing less of their first-round series than any of the others.
The key in this series is the bullpens:
Dodgers IP ERA WXRL rFRA
RHP Jonathan Broxton 76.0 2.61 4.89 2.63
LHP George Sherrill* 69.0 1.70 4.30 1.83
RHP Ramon Troncoso 82.2 2.72 3.50 2.79
RHP Ronald Belisario 70.2 2.04 0.19 2.99
LHP Hong-Chih Kuo 30.0 3.00 1.10 2.32
RHP Jeff Weaver 79.0 3.65 1.75** 4.02
RHP Chad Billingsley 196.1 4.03 3.72** 4.38
Phillies IP ERA WXRL rFRA
RHP Brad Lidge 58.2 7.21 -3.26 8.44
RHP Ryan Madson 77.1 3.26 2.32 3.08
LHP Scott Eyre 30.0 1.50 1.55 2.17
RHP Chan Ho Park 83.1 4.43 1.93** 3.00
RHP Chad Durbin 69.2 4.39 0.95 4.96
LHP Antonio Bastardo 23.2 6.46 -0.10# 7.06
rFRA: Relief-only FRA
*: Full-season combined statistics
**: SNLVAR + WXRL
#: SNLVAR
Let us not mince words: given the Dodger rotation's limited stamina, this team's post-season fate falls squarely on the shoulders of their bullpen. Fortunately, those are big shoulders, and [Joe] Torre demonstrated his knack for using his relief corps to shorten games in the Division Series. Their bullpen has such depth that they were able to withstand the early hook of Wolf, and to match up Broxton with Albert Pujols in the late innings of all three games, regardless of whether it was the eighth or ninth. Dodger relievers tossed 9 2/3 innings in the series, allowing eight hits and one walk while striking out seven, stranding four baserunners inherited from starters and yielding two runs, both in garbage time. Work like that wins championships.
Not that it should be a great surprise, given that the team led the league with 13.2 WXRL, and that Broxton not only led the league in that category, but led all relievers in strikeouts (114) and strikeout rate (13.5 per nine). The deadline addition of Sherrill was key, as it prevented Torre from burning out the likes of Belisario and Troncoso while offering him a hurler who smothers lefties (.163/.226/.261 career) and has experience closing; Sherrill put up a 0.70 FRA [Fair Run Average] in high-leverage duty after coming over. Fellow southpaw Kuo's second-half return to form (2.19 ERA, 28/9 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings) following elbow troubles provides the Dodgers with two chances to stifle Howard in the late innings. Elsewhere, Belisario and Troncoso generate ground balls by the bushel while steering clear of the long ball. The former was hell on righties (.157/.234/.252). The latter, who didn't pitch in the Division Series after losing a bit of Torre's confidence over the season's final two months (a 4.87 ERA and 5.3 BB/9 will do that) nonetheless finished eighth in the league in WXRL. Weaver was a late addition to the playoff roster, and came up huge in relief of [Randy] Wolf, wriggling out of a bases-loaded jam and getting the win; he provides Torre with another situational righty, not to mention an unhappy reminder that the manager's post-season record in handling bullpens is hardly spotless. Left out of the rotation, Billingsley's ability to miss bats is yet another weapon.
By contrast the Phillies' bullpen rates as a serious concern, even after [Charlie] Manuel successfully navigated it through the Colorado series. One year after converting every save opportunity en route to a World Championship, Lidge blew 11 saves and set a record for the lowest single-season WXRL. The Phils mulled various options during the season's final weeks, but ultimately Manuel gave him the ball to close out the final two games, albeit with a caveat. Reintroducing a cut fastball into his repertoire against lefties, Lidge worked around a pair of walks while pitching the entire ninth inning in Game Three, and came on with two outs and two on in Game Four—following Manuel's situationally-based choice to start the inning with the lefty Eyre—to strike out Troy Tulowiztki, closing out the series.
Part of the reason Manuel wound up returning to Lidge is because of the rest of the bullpen's limitations, primarily due to injuries. Madson remains his top set-up man, capable of missing bats and getting more than three outs when the need dictates. The most obvious choice to supplant Lidge — he saved 10 games this year — Madson's move to the ninth leaves a vacuum that the Phils couldn't fill. The Phils had hoped Brett Myers could assume a high-leverage role, but he remains less than 100 percent following hip surgery. Trouble finding the strike zone in his sole Division Series appearance, as well as doubts about his ability to pitch consecutive days, have cost him a roster spot in favor of Park. The team's second most effective reliever (2.1 WXRL, 3.00 FRA, 9.4 K/9 after moving from the rotation), Park hasn't pitched in a game since September 16 due to a hamstring strain. Durbin's a lower-leverage righty who walks far too many hitters for his own good (5.8 UIBB/9); he nonetheless saw eighth-inning duty in Game Three, after Manuel used Madson to put out a fire lit by Eyre in the seventh. Eyre, of course, is now the top lefty due to J.C. Romero's torn flexor tendon; he doesn't stifle lefties to quite the extent of most specialists (.240/.321/.396 career), nor does he miss many bats. Bastardo is a rookie who showed little platoon difference during his June in the rotation, but he did whiff 7.2 per nine.
How Manuel will use Blanton and Happ, his two options to start Game Four, remains to be seen. Blanton served in middle relief in Game Two and as the long man in Game Three, surrendering a run each time. Happ faced one batter in Game Two, gave up a hit, and served up a dud of a start (three innings, seven baserunners, three runs) under frigid conditions before departing due to a comebacker off of his shin. The summer's rotation savior scuffled down the stretch, with a 4.83 ERA and zero quality starts after August 27.
Admittedly, I've got plenty of emotion wrapped up in this series, but that's one of the reasons I'm so thorough with my analysis. And in the end, I can't help but conclude that the Dodgers' righty-heavy lineup and deep bullpen sets them up to attack the Phillies' weaknesses — and counteract their strengths — better than the Phillies can do same, plus they have the benefit of home-field advantage. Here's hoping they can seize the opportunity and avenge last year's loss.
The Playoff Prospectus I wrote for the Dodgers-Cardinals series is up at BP. It's epic in length, which somehow explains why I didn't get to see the final inning of the Game 163 play-in, because I didn't set my TiVo to record more than an extra hour of the game, and by the time I got a chance to watch -- starting at 11 PM, though I'd seen the first few innings while making dinner -- it was already in the books. FML, as the kids say.
Anyway, as for the Dodgers and Cardinals, here's the rotation segment as an excerpt:
Dodgers IP ERA SNLVAR SNWP
LHP Randy Wolf 214.1 3.23 6.0 .564
LHP Clayton Kershaw 171.0 2.79 6.5 .600
RHP Vicente Padilla 147.1 4.46 3.1 .508*
RHP Chad Billingsley 196.1 4.03 3.8 .502
Cardinals IP ERA SNLVAR SNWP
RHP Chris Carpenter 192.2 2.24 8.0 .673
RHP Adam Wainwright 233.0 2.63 8.5 .630
RHP Joel Pineiro 214.0 3.49 4.6 .532
RHP John Smoltz 78.0 6.35 0.5 .414*
RHP Kyle Lohse 117.2 4.74 1.1 .436
* Full season statistics
Though the Dodger and Cardinal rotations finished tied for third in the National League in SNLVAR (23.2) and among the top four in ERA — L.A.'s 3.58 was second, St. Louis' 3.66 was fourth — the two teams differ greatly in how they got there. The Cardinal starters absorbed a league-high 69.7 percent of their team's workload, an average of 6.20 innings per start. They did so by being efficient, posting the league's lowest walk and homer rates (2.4 per nine and 0.7 per nine, respectively) to counteract having just the 11th-best strikeout rate. Dodger starters, by contrast, shouldered the fourth-lightest workload among NL starters at 62.5 percent, though that owes something playing an MLB-high 21 extra inning games. Their 5.68 innings per start was the sixth-lowest in the league, a byproduct of a high strikeout rate (7.5 per nine, third in the league) and a high walk rate (3.5 per nine, fourth). Unquestionably, it's the Dodgers who enter the postseason with the greater number of concerns about their rotation, as their top four starters all missed time down the stretch.
Despite a paltry total of 11 wins — a figure sure to be remarked upon by the mainstream media — Wolf enjoyed something of a career year as he set personal bests for starts (34), innings pitched and ERA+ (129). Thanks in no small part to a league-low .254 BABIP, he finished a strong 11th in SNLVAR and tied for fourth in Quality Starts (24), a ranking which reflects his sheer consistency. In the second half, he delivered at least six innings in 17 straight starts; though he skipped a turn due to elbow soreness amid that stretch in early September, it doesn't appear to be a lingering issue. There's considerably greater concern for Kershaw, who made just two starts after September 4 after separating his glove-side shoulder shagging balls in the outfield, an injury which nonetheless kept the 21-year-old from blowing too far past last year's combined minor and major league innings total. The kid misses bats; his 9.7 K/9 ranked fifth among NL ERA qualifiers, and his hit rate (6.3 per nine) was by far the league's lowest. He matches up well with these Cardinals, who have collected nothing more harmful than three doubles off him in 100 PA over his short career.
After losing Hiroki Kuroda for the series and perhaps the remainder of the year due to a herniated cervical disc, Torre has settled on Padilla to start Game Three. The former Ranger pitched well (3.20 ERA, .553 SNWP and 8.7 K/9) after being picked up on waivers in early August, owing much to the easier league and the friendlier park. More interesting is that his start is guaranteed while that of Billingsley, who entered the year as the staff ace, isn't. Though Billingsley led the Dodgers in wins (12) and finished just six strikeouts behind Kershaw, he struggled the second half, with a 5.20 ERA and six quality starts out of 13. His woes may owe something to a hyperextended knee suffered early in August, or simply a lack of stamina; he gave up 16 runs in the nine sixth innings he pitched during that stretch, including six against the Cards on July 28 after shutting them out in the previous five frames, a showing that almost certainly entered into Torre's decision.
The Cardinals go into this series with two of the league's top three pitchers in terms of Support Neutral Winning Percentage in Carpenter and Wainwright; the two placed first and fourth, respectively, in ERA as well. Carpenter's comeback from two seasons in the weeds (four starts in 207-2008) due to elbow miseries has been so complete that it's easy to forget what a question mark he was coming into the year. His stellar performance, which may culminate in a second Cy Young award, is the main reason the Cards outdid their PECOTA projection by eight games. While he doesn't strike out as many hitters as he used to, his walk rate (1.8 per nine, third in the league) is microscopic, and his NL-best home run rate (0.3 per nine) even moreso. If he doesn't win the Cy, Wainwright might; he led the league in wins (19) and innings while significantly boosting his strikeout rate thanks to improved command of his curveball, which enabled him to smother righties (.217/.255/.290), representing a real problem for the Dodgers.
Pineiro, who will start Game Three, enjoyed a strong rebound of his own this year thanks to the league's fourth-best homer rate (0.5) and best walk rate (1.1 per nine); twice, he reeled off four-start stretches without walking a single hitter, and he hasn't walked more than two in a start since April 15. As for the choice in Game Four, Smoltz pitched much better upon being picked up by the Cardinals (4.26 ERA, .508 SNWP, 9.5 K/9) than he did in Boston, though his final start was a dud. As the all-time leader in postseason wins (15), he's likely to have the inside track on Lohse, who has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 since his forearm troubles emerged in late May, but neither pitcher is likely to have a very long leash.
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I'd have excerpted the part about the batting orders, except that it's much longer and, because I didn't have the Cardinals Game One lineup by press time, wrong. As if to spite me for the sarcasm with which I use the term "genius" to describe him, Tony LaRussa decided to start lefty-hitting Skip Schumaker at second after all, and he walked and came around to score the game's first run, poor performance against lefties be damned. On the run-scoring play, Ronnie Belliard failed to catch a blooper into center field that one can only wonder whether Orlando Hudson — whose starting job he usurped — might have, but he also started an inning-ending double play.
Whoa, and Matt Kemp blasts one to straightaway center field to put the Dodgers up 2-1... I gotta get back to this game.
