The Breakout Bunch

I’ve got a pair of articles at BP and ESPN Insider focusing on young players whom PECOTA forecasts to break out, which in terms of our forecasting system means improving their productivity at least 20 percent relative to their three-year baseline. From the hitters piece (BP and ESPN): Not every top prospect hits the ground …

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Kent’s Cooperstown Case

In today’s Hit and Run column at Baseball Prospectus, I take up “The Curious Case of Jeff Kent”, who retired last week: There’s no crying in baseball, which may or may not explain why Jeff Kent’s stoic facade crumbled during the press conference in which he announced his retirement last week. A notoriously gruff and …

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A Brief History of Amazing Letdowns… And Comebacks

Well, my Dodgers-in-six prediction isn’t looking so hot these days. Here’s what I’ve been up to since then: • My rundown of the first two games of the NLCS, with a statistical look at the Phillies’ reliance on the home run ball for their scoring. • Some notes for Game Four that foreshadowed Derek Lowe’s early exit …

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I Don’t Think Either of Them Can Win

I’ve got an article in today’s New York Sun about the war of attrition being fought over the NL West and NL Wild Card playoff spots. As I conceived the piece, in thinking about the recent struggles of the Brewers and Mets I was reminded of a great old quote. Had I been able to …

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