A couple weeks back, on one of my Boston “Young Guns” radio spots, I joked with host Chris Villani about Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury being the new Juan Pierre. Yesterday, Rob Neyer’s got a blog entry ruminating on that prospect, and concluding that while he’s been a disappointment, time is on the 25-year-old Ellsbury’s side.

I tend to agree, but at the same time, I’m rather alarmed — and as a Sox-hater, amused — that he hasn’t come anywhere close to approaching his sizzling 2007 debut. Ellsbury’s hardly developed into the Johnny Damon clone that some expected him to be, and his power appears to be more a function of park than of anything else. Check these career numbers out:

Split               PA    AVG   OBP   SLG
Ellsbury, Fenway    499  .304  .361  .441
Pierre, Home       2942  .311  .361  .375   

Ellsbury, Away      552  .285  .332  .374
Pierre, Away       2962  .292  .336  .371

On neutral turf, they’re virtually the same slappy hitter, but at Fenway, Ellbury packs considerably more punch, enough so that his career Equivalent Average dusts Pierre’s, .279 to .258; recall that the latter has spent more than a third of his career in hitter-friendly venues like Coors and Wrigley Fields, depressing the value of his offensive “accomplishments.” As I’ve said to Villani and company, I don’t think that makes him a particularly strong choice as the Sox’s leadoff hitter, but his game is a stronger one than Pierre’s