In the annals of Dodger history, few trades have turned out more disastrously than the one made on November 19, 1993, when L.A. shipped Pedro Martinez to the Montreal Expos for second baseman Delino DeShields. At the time, the 22-year-old Martinez was coming off of his first full season as a Dodger, having gone 10-5 out of the bullpen with a 2.61 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 107 innings in 65 appearances. But the Dodgers had concerns about the diminutive (5’11”, 170 lbs) pitcher’s durability. His brother Ramon, three and a half years older and five inches taller, had already shown signs of wear and tear as one of the Dodgers’ top starters — though a whopping 455 innings in his age 22-23 seasons might have had something to do with that, eh, Tommy?

Packed with pitching depth, the Dodgers were in need of a second baseman after incumbent Jody Reed, 30 years old and coming off of a .276/.333/.346 season balked at a generous three year, $7.8 million offer. As Jon Weisman has recounted in great, painful detail, the Dodgers needed to look elsewhere to fill the spot, and after coming up short in the free-agent market, they were forced to make a trade. Dealing from the club’s perceived pitching depth, Dodger GM Fred Claire sent Martinez to the Expos for DeShields, a 24-year-old second baseman who’d hit .295/.389/.372 with 43 steals.

The trade didn’t work out so well. DeShields dropped to .250/.357/.322 and spent his three seasons in LA struggling to reach the level he’d shown in Montreal. Meanwhile Martinez entered the Expos rotation and went 11-5 with a 3.42 ERA in the strike-torn year, which found the Expos holding the majors’ best record when play stopped. It took two more seasons before Pedro became Pedro, the best pitcher of his generation, by which point the Dodgers were watching DeShields make up for lost time with a good season in St. Louis. Grrrr.

(For what it’s worth, Reed got what he richly deserved, spending the remaining four years of his career bouncing from Milwaukee to San Diego to Detroit, earning in only slightly more in total than what one year of that contract would have netted. If there’s any justice, not a day goes by where he doesn’t want to kick himself for passing up that deal.)

Claire, to his credit, always took the blame for the Pedro deal, though manager Lasorda had signed off on it. He reportedly says as much in his new book, Fred Claire: My 30 Years in Dodger Blue. In a recent interview with Baseball Prospectus’ Jonah Keri, Claire shed even more light on the reasoning behind the trade:

Claire: …SportsCentury is putting together a show on Pedro Martinez, and a guy from that show called me the other day. He said he had a chance to talk to [Dodger team physician Dr. Frank] Jobe at Dodgertown. He said when he asked Jobe for his report at the time on Pedro, Frank replied: ‘I was wrong.’ When the trade was made — and I say this now, now that Frank has spoken — he asked me: ‘Fred, why don’t you ever mention my report to you on Pedro?’ I said not only have I not done that, I will never do that. Because the job of a GM is to make a decision based on the information he has. Your job is to give me the information you have, and no one is better than you at doing it. You’re not always going to be right, just like anyone. But I firmly believe that’s the best approach, whether it was input from scouts, major league staff, or anyone else; ultimately only one person can make the decision. It’s important to have that structure, not as much to protect as to respect everyone involved.

BP: What was in Pedro’s medical report that was so negative?

Claire: From what Frank had seen related to Pedro, he had concerns with the body build and structure, what he had seen in his shoulder, what his endurance factor was going to be. Fortunately for Pedro, he has obviously handled all of that with a performance that speaks for itself.

BP: At the time the Pedro trade for Delino Deshields was viewed by many people as good for the Dodgers, given Deshields was a young, talented player with a good track record and potential to improve even more. Your book [discusses some of the events that led to the trade, but take me through some of your thought process here.

Claire: When the trade was made, I can recall how upset the other Montreal players and media were, because Delino was seen as not only an outstanding young player, but also as a leader of a good, young Montreal team. At that time we were looking for a second baseman. History will recall very well that we went above and beyond the call of duty to sign Jody Reed then…

In all honesty the last thing I wanted to do was trade Pedro away. The thing about Pedro is that he is and always has been a very special player. A lot of it has to do with his heart and with his spirit. We were familiar with the family too, because his brother Ramon had become our best pitcher. Ultimately the trade was done, and despite the promise of Delino and other factors, proved to be a poor trade for the Dodgers.

So the leading doctor in sports medicine (Jobe invented Tommy John Surgery) was the one who underestimated Pedro’s long-term viability, coloring the views of Claire and setting off the trade. That doesn’t make the deal’s outcome any better for the Dodgers or their fans, but it does add a bit of legitimacy to what has often been presented as Lasorda’s doubt about Pedro’s endurance and Claire’s singular responsibility for the deal.

But in thinking about it even further in the context of Dodger history, I’m left with the suspicion that had Pedro remained with the team, he likely would have suffered a career-threatening injury sooner or later. The Dodgers had a well-earnedr eputation for riding their best young arms into the ground; consider this short list of pitchers developed by the Dodgers during the Lasorda era who ended up suffering major arm injuries:

Rick Rhoden — missed all but one start in 1979 due to shoulder surgery after being traded from the Dodgers over the winter

Doug Rau — missed much of 1979 and all of 1980 due to rotator cuff injury and never successfully came back

Alejandro Pena — missed all but two games in 1985 due to shoulder surgery which necessitated a shift to the bullpen

Fernando Valenzuela — missed much of 1988 with a shoulder injury and was never the same pitcher

Orel Hershiser — missed most of 1990 and much of 1991 with a torn rotator cuff

Ramon Martinez — after years of missing time here and there with arm troubles, missed half of 1998 and most of 1999 with a torn rotator cuff and was never the same pitcher

It’s not hard to imagine Pedro joining that list. The rest of the baseball world, particularly the Red Sox, should be thankful for the Dodgers’ misjudgment; it’s entirely possible he would never have flourished as he did if the trade hadn’t happened.

Speaking of Pedro’s health, it’s been in the news lately. ESPN’s Jayson Stark reports that Martinez raised some eyebrows when he got shellacked in his final spring start, yielding six runs to the Toronto Blue Jays, including a grand slam by Eric Hinske, without retiring a single batter. According to Stark, the Boston ace’s pitches for the most part were only in the 86-88 MPH range with the occasional 90-91 “lightning bolt”. Martinez settled down without yielding any more runs after that six-pack, but needed 84 pitches to get nine outs. Speculation may abound that Martinez is holding something back until his contract situation — he’s a free-agent at the end of the season — is resolved, but he may have something wrong as well. Writes Stark:

Behind the plate, a section full of scouts scratched their heads. Martinez had touched 90 mph on just a couple of fastballs. He delivered them from an arm slot noticeably lower than the Pedro of old.

I could never give that guy a three-year contract,” said one scout. “He’s got two years left in him. Tops.”

Though catcher Jason Varitek and manager Terry Francona were upbeat about the rest of Pedro’s outing after his early struggle, his body language left something to be desired. At one point, Martinez, after not getting a strike call, caught Varitek’s return barehanded.

Suffice it to say that when the Sox open the regular season on Sunday night against the Baltimore Orioles, it will be interesting to see whether Martinez puts his rough spring (27 baserunners in 16 innings and a 6.75 ERA) behind him. If he hasn’t, expect the Red Sox Nation’s handwringing and the contract-related tantrums to start in earnest.