Predictions Post- and Pre-

As if I hadn’t written enough in the last 24 hours, this afternoon’s drubbing of the Dodgers (down 7-1 in the sixth as I write this… no, 7-2… now 8-2) has sent me back to the keyboard to tie up a few loose ends.

First up are my postseason predictions, which I’ll offer without comment but for posterity:

National League: Cardinals over Dodgers in 4, Braves over Astros in 4, Cardinals over Braves in 6.

American League: Yankees over Twins in 5, Angels over Red Sox in 5, Angels over Yankees in 6.

World Series: Cardinals over Angels in 6.

Looking back at my preseason predictions, I’m pleased to note that I called the winners of each division and the Wild Card correctly in the AL. In the NL? Not so much. I did get the Wild Card right, but that’s simply because I’m stubborn enough to pick the Astros there every year. Elsewhere, I had the Phillies, Cubs, and Padres at the top of their respective divisions, none of which came to pass.

It’s interesting to go back and read what I wrote about the NL West:

Somebody has to win this division, right? Tempted though I am to wishcast the Dodgers into first place, I’ve restrained myself from doing so, with the caveat that since it will only take about 85-88 games to win this division, this one will probably go down to the wire. The Padres have done some interesting upgrading since late last year, adding Brian Giles, Ramon Hernandez, and David Wells, so what the hell, I’ll put my nickel on them. The Dodgers have improved slightly since Paul DePodesta took over the helm; the Milton Bradley deal, while it may bite them in the ass down the road, give the team a needed shot of offense. But unless Cesar Izturis and Alex Cora morph into productive hitters (hold on, I haven’t stopped laughing) or Adrian Beltre lives up to that long-lost promise (no, really), these guys ain’t going nowhere. On the other hand, the right late-season deal could give any team in the division the edge, and the Dodgers have a lot of minor-league talent to offer. Besides Barry Bonds, the Giants don’t scare anybody, except their own medical staff. Even if Jason Schmidt is healthy they won’t have enough pitching. And that outfield… Michael Tucker? Marquis Grissom? Jeffrey Hammonds? Dustan Mohr? Elsewhere, the Diamondback will continue to age less than gracefully, and the Rockies will score some runs while allowing even more.

I overestimated the Padres’ improvements, mostly due to the drastic effects of their new ballpark, which heavily favors pitchers and eats homers. The Padres and their opponents hit only 132 dingers at Petco, 191 away from there, a 45 percent difference. I was pretty much on the money with regards to the Giants (Bonds and Schmidt and the Rest Was Shit, Especially That Bullpen When It Mattered).

Dodgerwise, the Bradley deal was a boost even though he hit only .267/.362/.424 and had a couple of high-profile meltdowns. As for Cora, Izturis, and Beltre, I’m certainly not laughing any more:

          ---PRE '04---   ----2004----

AVG OBP SLG AVG OBP SLG
Izturis .246 .270 .319 .288 .330 .381
Cora .241 .301 .344 .264 .364 .380
Beltre .262 .320 .428 .334 .388 .629

Neither Izturis nor Cora will scare many pitchers, but both put up OBPs that were at least 60 points higher than their career marks, and improved their SLGs considerably as well. Beltre improved his OBP by over 60 points as well, and raised his SLG by a jaw-dropping 201 points. Throw in Cora’s platoon partner, Jose Hernandez, at .289/.370/.540, and you’ve got a Great Leap Forward from one-third of the Dodger lineup, one that was a huge factor in their winning the West.

Another pair of games like this afternoon and it won’t matter much, though…

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