The Decline and Fall of Yankee Stadium

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The Yankees put on quite a show in the Bronx last night for the final game ever at Yankee Stadium. I wasn’t in attendance, alas, unlike some of my NYC-area cohorts like Alex Belth, Cliff Corcoran, Joe Sheehan and Derek Jacques, and without the anticipation of attending the game, I had a tough time summoning the requisite nostalgia beforehand. Over the weekend I did manage to surmount some of my baggage in time to pen a pending piece for Alex and Cliff’s Bronx Banter series on my favorite moment in Yankee Stadium; in true Jaffe fashion I turned a simple assignment into a five-reel epic, emerging with a top ten countdown of my most memorable moments at the ballpark. Sooner or later, the piece will join the ranks of those by Pete Abraham, Allen Barra, Brian Gunn, Phil Pepe, Dayn Perry, Ken Rosenthal et al, and I hope it will be a worthy addition.

The flip side of those warm memories is today’s piece for Baseball Prospectus in which I come less to praise Yankee Stadium than to bury it. Mainly, it’s a much harsher reckoning with all that the Yankee Stadium experience became in the wake of September 11. Regular readers of this site will be familiar with my litany of complaints, from the arbitrary enforcement of “security” procedures to the controversy surrounding the ritualistic playing of “God Bless America,” all of which served to make a trip to the ballpark a considerably less fun experience than in earlier years:

The Yankee Stadium which emerged in the immediate wake of September 11 was a defiant symbol of national unity in a time of crisis, and I had the honor of attending a few of the games there, including Game Three of the World Series, when President Bush threw out the first pitch of what Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci called “the ceremonial first pitch to America’s recovery” (alas, stadium security was so heavy that night that I couldn’t gain entry until the second inning, after Bush had departed). The problems began when the Yankee organization, from owner George Steinbrenner on down, couldn’t let go of that symbolism. “God Bless America” became a permanent staple of the seventh-inning stretch, devolving from the spectacular pomp of Irish tenor Ronan Tynan’s delivery during home playoff games to the banality of the canned recording of Kate Smith and the U.S. Army Band’s version. More on that in a moment.

Accompanying the regular renditions of “God Bless America” were heightened security procedures that subjected patrons to no small litany of hassles while doing little to make them more secure. Given the cursory frisking procedures and lack of metal detection capabilities, it would have been possible to gain entry with a 9mm handgun jammed down the back of one’s pants and a Bowie knife sheathed in one’s sock, but without those, the organization simply inflicted its increasing paranoia and greed upon paying customers. Backpacks and briefcases were immediately banned from the ballpark after September 11, as though any potential ticketholder might be a terrorist smuggling in a tactical nuclear weapon swiped from the imagination of some z-grade thriller. Not even Shea Stadium — located only two miles from La Guardia Airport — stooped to such extremes. Anyone coming to the park while porting one of the banned bag types — say, from work — was forced to check it for a fee at one of the bars or restaurants across River Avenue. Anyone wishing to schlep a bagful of items into the stadium — say, a scorebook, a jacket, and reading material for the long subway ride home — was forced to place those items in a flimsy, clear plastic grocery-type bag available outside the turnstiles. No other types of bags, such as ones with reinforced handles, were allowed, first for vague “security purposes” and then, once fans began pressing Yankee security to explain these increasingly irrational and seemingly arbitrary requests, “because you’re not allowed to bring bags with logos inside.” As you may have divined, I had many a terse confrontation over this policy.

But wait, there’s more. Umbrellas were banned, subjecting patrons to a true soaking at the stadium’s souvenir stands, where they could shell out $5 for a flimsy poncho. Confiscated umbrellas were consigned to giant heaps near the turnstiles, where aggrieved fans departing a game were granted the opportunity to choose a replacement vastly inferior to the one they’d brought. But perhaps the reductio ad absurdum was the stadium’s ban on sunscreen — yes, really — thus creating another opportunity for profiteering inside the ballpark.

All of those were petty annoyances of a type not unfamiliar to any New Yorker; one basically signs up for a host of such inconveniences upon taking residence here with the hope that they’ll be outweighed by the advantages of city dwelling. Far more ominous were the crowd-related issues that exacerbated over the past few years. To appreciate them, one need understand the trend of rapid attendance growth that occurred during the Joe Torre era…

For me, the final straw came on April 30, 2007, after attending a tense Saturday game against the Red Sox in which the Yankees prevailed. A very bipartisan, alcohol-fueled crowd had been at each other’s throats all game; the cheap seats in Tier Reserved had featured numerous fights and ejections. An irrational security force nonetheless sealed off several of the stadium’s ramps, slowing the exits of legions of emotionally overheated fans. It took 40 minutes to crawl from the upper deck to the subway platform, and while I’m no claustrophobe, all I could think about on my painfully protracted way out was the deadly human crush of English soccer riots. The limiting of the exits apparently became standard operating procedure, and if the consequences didn’t turn tragic the way I kept envisioning, they nonetheless added an unnecessary, dangerous level of discomfort to the experience of attending a game in the Bronx.

Further down in the piece is a summation of the horrors of the new ballpark’s ominously named Relocation Program (if the hot dogs in the new park taste different, you’ll know why) and a recognition of the way so many rank-and-file fans stand to be priced out of the cherished ritual of regular attendance in the coming years. On that topic, Cliff C. had a fantastic piece the other day, titled “The Rich Get Richer: The Ugly Truth About The New Yankee Stadium.”

Raining on a parade isn’t a fun thing to do, and I have to admit, in watching from my seat on the couch last night, I was moved by the pomp and pageantry of the gala affair despite its contrivances. But in the afterglow of the finale, I’m more resolute than ever about the necessity of shedding some light on the dark side of Yankee Stadium’s final days and years. I’m not sure things will ever be the same for me in the Bronx again, and I wonder how many fans will feel similarly in the coming years.

Five Style

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Well, my trip to the ballparks last weekend didn’t work out quite as planned, with rain washing away the Brewers-Phillies game and depriving me of my first opportunity to see Citizens Bank Ballpark. Given the way the rest of the weekend unfolded for the flat Brew Crew — including the shocking firing of manager Ned Yost — that might have been for the best. My frantic trip back to New York for my final game at Yankee Stadium didn’t wind up much better, as I watched a listless bunch of pinstriped zombies fail to summon the energy of going through the motions to pretend that they could act like they gave a shit. They lost 7-1 to the Rays, failing to score until the ninth inning, failing to draw a walk all day long. Alex Rodriguez sat in favor of Cody Ransom at third base. Blech.

As the finale approaches this Sunday, I’ve got a piece in the works about my last game still in the pipeline. Until then, here’s this week’s horde of links to my work at Baseball Prospectus, with a bonus as well:

• I neglected to include a link to This article looks at the high-profile bullpen failures of recent days, and focuses on the teams who haven’t been able to get much relief in the second half.

• This piece follows up one from three weeks ago, about teams who have dramatically over- or underachieved relative to their projected records. Last week, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Adjusted Standings Report — which forms the basis of the weekly Hit Lists — the Angels set an all-time mark for overachievement that was previously held by the 2004 Yankees; they’re now more than 14 games better than their adjusted runs scored and runs allowed totals would tell you. And when I say adjusted, I mean adjusted for run elements, park, league, and quality of competition.

Interestingly enough, the team that’s underachieved the most relative to their projected record are the Red Sox, who are more than seven games under theirs. A similar thing happened last year and it didn’t stop the Sox from winning the World Series, but it’s quite an anomaly for teams that are more than four games under their records to make the postseason — it’s happened just four times in over 100 years of play prior to this year.

• Today’s Hit List, the penultimate one of the season, much to my relief. Strangely enough, the Brewers, Yankees and Dodgers are 9-10-11 in this week’s rankings, and it looks like only the “weakest” of the three might make the playoffs. Not that the difference between the clubs is huge, just three percentage points of Hit List Factor (.003).

• Also, as a follow-up to last week’s piece on Manny Ramirez, researcher Bil Burk helped me prepare an Unfiltered follow-up comparing Manny’s initial hot streak with the Dodgers to the majors’ best hot streaks of equivalent length. It turns out that over the course of 180 plate appearances, the size of Ramirez’s stint in Dodger blue at the time, Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla — the first three pretty solid MVP candidates — have outdone the toast of Tinseltown.

Ok, back sooner than later, hopefully.

Three Quick Shakes

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Back from my late winter summer trip to Salt Lake City and Wyoming, where I nearly froze my ass off while backpacking in the Wind Rivers range once again. After three days of chilly weather and occasional odd snow flurries that melted the moment they hit the ground, I awoke to a snow-covered forest floor at 10,000 feet last Friday morning. Brrrrr.

Back in the swing of things, I’ve pretty much given up the Yankees for dead. Instead my focus has been on the NL West. I watched some of last weekend’s key series against the collapsing Diamondbacks and marveled at the unstoppable force that is Manny Ramire – two topics that each provided me with enough fodder for Prospectus Hit and Run pieces:

• Snakes Down a Drain:

This past Saturday, the Arizona Diamondbacks did what they’ve been threatening to do for the better part of the last four months: they surrendered first place in the NL West, a position they had held at least a share of since April 6. Back in April, they appeared poised to build on last year’s league-best record and run away with the division flag. Since then, they’ve been an adventure in mediocrity. On the heels of a three-game sweep by the Dodgers, Monday night’s loss even knocked them below .500. If you were in an airplane with their Postseason Odds, you’d have strapped on your parachute, unbolted the door, and checked the crossbreeze by now.

Before peering too deeply into the abyss, a brief refresher course is in order. Recall that the Diamondbacks finished with a 90-72 record but became just the sixth team to make the postseason with a negative run differential. They wound up 12.2 games above their third-order projection, the third-highest mark of all time. It wasn’t hard to envision the old Bill James Plexiglass Principle coming back to swat them on their collective derriere; exceeding expectations two years in a row is a very tough act. Nonetheless, the addition of Dan Haren to the rotation via a blockbuster trade with the A’s, the return of Randy Johnson from injury, and steady improvement by a nucleus of players 25 or under—Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, and Chris B. Young—figured to make the Diamondbacks at least co-favorites in the NL West. PECOTA forecasted an 87-75 finish and a +58 run differential (821 runs scored, 763 runs allowed). Not thrilling, but nice.

That forecast looked to be well on the low side through the first month of this season. The Diamondbacks compiled the best record (20-8) and run differential (+56) through April 30 while opening up a 5½-game lead in the division. They scored 5.9 runs per game to that point, second best in the majors. Even more impressively, they allowed just 3.9 runs per game (third best in the majors), a Herculean feat given that they play half their games in the second-best hitters’ park in the bigs. But since that sprint out of the gate, the D’backs have gone just 51-65 while wheezing their way to 4.2 runs per game (24th in the majors) and yielding 4.6 per game (14th).

• The Manny Show

Earlier this summer, I had occasion to review the career of former Dodger slugger Pedro Guerrero, a favorite player of my youth, for a research project. Guerrero spent the first few years of his major league career–1978-1980, for those too young to remember–waiting for Steve Garvey and company to grow old. In the interim, he was forced to learn other positions, playing every spot except for catcher and shortstop, finally cracking the Dodgers’ lineup as a right fielder for a couple of years. When Ron Cey was traded to the Cubs following the 1982 season, Guerrero began a nasty, short and brutish war of attrition with third base, where his range was above-average and his arm was strong, but his footwork was lousy. The media tended to focus on his errors (46 in 1983-1984) rather than the plays he made, but Guerrero paid his critics no mind. “I can f—ing hit” was his refrain, and brother, he could. Guerrero finished in the top three in Equivalent Average three times over the 1982-1985 span, often carrying a meager Dodger offense on his back for weeks at a time.

I’m reminded of Guerrero because I swear I’m seeing the reincarnation of that one-man Dodger blue wrecking crew in the form of Manny Ramirez right now, night after night after night. Ladies and gentlemen, in case you haven’t been paying attention, know this: Manny Ramirez can f—ing hit. Since coming to the Dodgers in a three-way deal consummated just moments before the July 31 trading deadline, he’s batting .396/.498/.776 with 14 homers in 166 plate appearances while helping his new club climb from two games behind the Diamondbacks in the NL West to 3 1/2 ahead of them. On the heels of his controversial exit from Boston, he showed up in Tinseltown, chose jersey number 99, promised to cut his dreadlocks in due course but barely obliged, ignited a merchandising craze and charmed his fans, teammates and even his stony-faced manager with his between-innings misadventures. Amid all of the distractions, he’s simply beaten the tar out of the ball, and the Dodger offense has started to click. On Wednesday night, he crushed a pair of opposite field home runs in Petco Park, one of the majors’ least homer-friendly venues.

And with no time to spare, I put together this week’s Hit List in a manner that I’ve never done before in the 90+ I’ve banged out over the last four years: I wrote the team comments in order from top to bottom, 1 to 30, just to see if I could finally do it. I’m not sure it will mean much to the reader, but as an exercise in quickly assembling some “talking points” about each team, it was a productive one, and I’m proud that it came out as well as it did.

As I write this I’ve got one foot out the door. I’m headed to Philadelphia tonight for a Phils-Brewers game, my third Brewers game in three cities this year and my first trip to Citizens Bank Ballpark. Tomorrow morning I’ve got to turn that around to get back to the Bronx for my final game at Yankee Stadium. I’ll be writing that one up for Baseball Prospectus next week, and rest assured, it won’t be the kind of weepy nostalgia piece that’s going around like a bad cold given recent events.

Masterson of My Domain

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One of the saving graces of writing about baseball from an analytical perspective is that something that might rip your heart out as a fan — say, the brazen stupidity of Dodger GM Ned Colletti or the failure of Alex Rodriguez in the clutch, with the Yankees’ season more or less on the line — can provide plenty of fodder to write about, and even make you look kind of smart once in awhile.

So it was with A-Rod’s at bat on Tuesday night against the Red Sox. To refresh the memory you’ve spent all week trying to shake, the Sox led 7-3 in the seventh inning with one out, the bases loaded and Rodriguez at the plate when Boston manager Terry Francona summoned rookie reliever Justin Masterson in place of the shaky Manny Delarmen. Two pitches later, the Sox were out of the inning courtesy of a 6-3 double play while the boo birds rained down on A-Rod, and two innings later the Yankees’ dreams of a much-needed sweep had turned to dust. A week earlier, I had noted that Masterson was being grossly underutilized in Boston’s bullpen, but starting the day after that piece ran, he made three higher-leverage relief appearances and was successful in each. I’m not suggesting there was any causality, but I’ll accept a smiley face and a check-plus-plus for good timing.

On Thursday, I revisited Masterson’s evolution in a grab-bag piece over at BP, also incorporating a bit on Clay Buchholz which was prepared for my now-weekly radio hit on Boston’s WWZN (Wednesdays, 8:05 AM on 1510 WWZN, which you can stream here if you’re not within range and also crazy enough to care about baseball at that ungodly hour), plus answers to Hit List-related queries on the Twins’ overperformance and a dis of a pair of Giants prospects (the latter with a hearty nod to Josh Wilker). Here’s the bit on Buchholz:

In preparation for my now-weekly radio spot on “The Young Guns Show” on Boston’s WWZN, host Chris Villani asked me to research some precedents for young pitchers who struggled in their first extended taste of the big leagues but turned it around the following year, citing John Danks and Fausto Carmona as recent examples. With the help of BP researcher Bil Burke, I dug up a list of pitchers who met the following criteria:
  • Their first year of over 50 innings pitched—their rookie season, technically—came when they were 24 or younger.
  • They posted an ERA of 5.00 or above in that year.
  • They shaved at least 1.5 runs off that ERA the next year and produced at worst a 4.50 ERA while throwing at least 150 innings.

The criteria are admittedly tailored to include the aforementioned names that sprung to mind, and the cutoffs aren’t park- or league-adjusted, but the results should suffice for Sox fans looking for a glint of optimism regarding their golden boy’s ultimate fate: 

Pitcher        Age  Year1   IP    ERA    Year2   IP    ERA
Jim Kaat        21  1960   50.0   5.58   1961  200.2   3.90
Bill Greif      22  1972  125.1   5.60   1973  199.1   3.21
John Smiley     22  1987   75.0   5.76   1988  205.0   3.56
Greg Maddux     21  1987  155.2   5.61   1988  249.0   3.51
John Smoltz     21  1988   64.0   5.63   1989  208.0   3.42
Tommy Greene    23  1990   51.1   5.44   1991  207.2   3.68
Steve Avery     20  1990   99.0   7.09   1991  210.1   3.81
Willie Banks    23  1992   71.0   5.83   1993  171.1   4.04
Bartolo Colon   24  1997   94.0   5.65   1998  204.0   3.71
Mac Suzuki      24  1999  110.0   6.79   2000  188.2   4.34
Wade Miller     23  2000  105.0   5.14   2001  212.0   3.40
Mark Mulder     22  2000  154.0   5.44   2001  229.1   3.45
Jeff Francis    24  2005  183.2   5.68   2006  199.0   4.16
Fausto Carmona  22  2006   74.2   5.42   2007  215.0   3.06
Mike Pelfrey*   23  2007   72.2   5.57   2008  163.0   3.70
John Danks*     22  2007  139.0   5.50   2008  156.2   3.10
*season in progress

Among this group are a slam-dunk Hall of Famer (Maddux), a should-be Hall of Famer (Smoltz), a near-Hall of Famer (Kaat), three Cy Young winners (Maddux, Smoltz, and Colon), a pair of pitchers who helped kick-start the Braves’ dynasty (Smoltz and Avery), a trio of two-time All-Stars (Miller, Mulder, and Smiley), and a quartet of pitchers whose emergence over the last few years helped put their teams in contention (Francis, Carmona, Pelfrey, and Danks). There are also a few guys whose careers amounted to only one or two decent seasons, some of whose names seem prescriptive when it comes to the fates of young pitchers (Greene and Greif). What, you were expecting a list free of grief?

Meanwhile, this week’s Hit List is up as well, and I get to distill my misery and frustration regarding the #10 Yankees and #15 Dodgers into bite-sized nuggets:

An Excess of Suck Does Not Equal Success: Carl Pavano crawls out of the woodwork to make his first start since April 9, 2007 and just his 20th in four years as a Yankee; that’s $2 million per start. Unsurprisingly, neither his return nor a sweep of the Orioles are enough to save the Yankees’ season, as they drop the first two games of a key series with the Red Sox. With closing time looming at the House That Ruth Built, the appalingly un-American behavior of the jackbooted thugs patrolling the stadium should illustrate to Hank Steinbrenner that the players on the field aren’t what sucks the most about this franchise these days.

Faded Blue: The Dodgers slip below .500 and give up critical ground in the NL West race as they’re swept by both the Phillies and the Nationals. They’ve now lost nine of ten while scoring a piddling 21 runs, but not for lack of opportunity. Their last five games have produced 54 runners left on base and just nine runs, four of them via homers. The toast of Tinseltown, Manny Ramirez, has just two extra base hits and one RBI in that span, which should have Joe Torre rethinking the wisdom of that haircut.

Sadly, I don’t think either of my teams are going to be playing in October this year, though there’s still room for hope regarding the Brewers. Good thing I married well.

I’ll Show You The Bronx (NSFW)

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As the “God Bless America” imbroglio reaches the mainstream media, footage of another ugly police incident at Yankee Stadium has emerged. Via the blog Walkoff Walk, here’s a YouTube clip showing two cops using force to subdue a fan they were in the process of ejecting, and while we don’t know the context of what precipitated the incident, it’s as distressing to see the excesses of the NYPD encroach on the ballpark as it is to read about them.

Seriously, what the fuck? From beyond the grave, here’s some much-needed humor from George Carlin to discuss the absurdity of forced patriotism:

And finally, here’s a classic track from NWA to vent some rage at the men in blue — and I don’t mean the umps. Definitely not safe for work, kids.

Pissed Off About Forced Patriotism

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I’ve complained before about the forced patriotism which compels the Yankees to play Kate Smith’s deathless rendition of “God Bless America” during every seventh-inning stretch since the dark day of September 11, 2001. And I’ve complained about the increasingly heavy hand exerted by Yankee Stadium security forces in that time frame. Those two forces, combined with ever-increasing attendance rates, have greatly diminished the returns on attending a game in the House That Ruth Built over the past several years.

But this is completely beyond the pale: a man attending a Yankees game was allegedly verbally and physically harassed by thugged-out stadium police for committing the grave sin of attempting to take a bathroom break during “God Bless America”:

I attempted to get up to use the restroom, rather urgently, during the 7th inning stretch as God Bless America was beginning. As I attempted to walk down the aisle and exit my section into the tunnel, I was stopped by a police officer. He informed me that I had to wait until the song was over. I responded that I had to use the restroom and that I did not care about God Bless America.

As soon as the latter came out of my mouth, my right arm was twisted violenty behind my back and I was informed that I was being escorted out of the stadium. A second officer then joined in and twisted my left arm, also in an excessively forceful manner, behind my back. I informed them they were violating my First Amendment rights and that I had done nothing wrong, with no response from them.

I was sitting in the Tier Level, and of course this is the highest level of the stadium and I was escorted in this painful manner down the entire length of the stadium. About halfway down, I informed them that they were hurting me, repeated that I had done nothing wrong, and that I was not resisting nor talking back to them. One of them said something to the effect that if I continued to speak, he would find a way to hurt me more.

When we reached the exit of the stadium, they confiscated my ticket and the first officer shoved me through the turnstiles, saying “Get the hell out of my country if you don’t like it.”

Are you fucking kidding me? I’ve taken many a restroom break during “God Bless America” during my days and nights at Yankee Stadium, and I’ve not only never been harassed by anyone for doing so, I was never aware that they actually had a policy — almost certainly illegal and blatantly unconstitutional — to try to quell such activity. Nonetheless, given the ever-eroding quality of my own experiences at the stadium in recent years, I fear that the allegations are true.

Yankee Stadium security deserves no benefit of the doubt here, nor in this instance does the Steinbrenner family if they’re the ones who have ordered the policy be implemented. Forcing paying customers to stand at rapt attention during a song isn’t some cute little attempt at patriotism to bolster the legacy of Mr. Born on the Fourth of July Steinbrenner, it’s FASCISM. Roughing them up over their failure to stand still during a canned recording of a song that’s been drained of all meaning by its endless repetition is in diametric opposition to what the song and the country it so proudly celebrates stand for; this is about as un-American as you can get.

Furthermore, this incident puts the lie to any claim regarding “the hallowed ground of Yankee Stadium” at a time when the ballpark’s history is being celebrated and its demise mourned. The Yankees deserve to reap all of the bad PR they’ve sown with this, and the Steinbrenner family can cram it up their Yankee Doodle Dandies until they figure out why they’re in the wrong.

No Room to Rhumba on a Laptop

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Sorry, it’s been slow around here given that my iMac G5 20″ has been in its death throes for the past week, leaving me to write on my laptop and sweat bullets over the fate of my data, 99% of which was successfully retrieved (not to be confused with a hard drive of mine that recently failed, costing me thousands of MP3s). Writing my columns on a laptop isn’t the easiest thing in the world given that I’m generally moving back and forth between dozens of open browser windows, Excel and TextEdit (I don’t write in Word because I don’t need to for the web). And that doesn’t even begin to hint at the ergonomic distress induced by my current, hunched-shoulder mode of working. Hence the title of last week’s Hit List (“Cramped Quarters”) and this blog entry.

My other as-yet-unlinked article from last week explored the Red Sox’s handling of two rookie pitchers, Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson. The former was touted as the game’s best pitching prospect by some coming into the year; BP’s Kevin Goldstein had him ranked #2 overall, ahead of Joba Chamberlain, on our Top 100 Prospects list. Yet he fell on his ugly mug – seriously, the guy looks like a meth freak — and was farmed out last week after compiling a 2-9, 6.75 ERA record. The latter pitched reasonably well in nine starts earlier this year, then was sent to the bullpen when Buchholz returned from his first minor league stint and has since been limited to mop-and-bucket duty despite the Sox’s shaky right-handed relief options. The bottom line is that whether he’s in the bullpen or the rotation, Masterson should be more than the last guy on the staff. Interestingly enough, in the days since that article ran, he’s pitched the seventh inning in two close ballgames, the type fo relief opportunities he hadn’t been getting beforehand. His presence will be something to watch for in this series against the Yankees.

Finally, today’s Hit and Run article is about the Angels and their pursuit of an all-time mark for most win above a projected record:

Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez notched his 50th save on Sunday night, and if you’ve been following some of Joe Sheehan’s recent work, you know that K-Rod is well on his way to smashing Bobby Thigpen’s single-season record of 57 saves, set back in 1990. You’re probably not aware that he and the rest of the Halos are in sight of another record as well.

Through Sunday, the Angels were 29 games over .500 at 79-50 despite having outscored their opponents by only 53 runs. That put them 9.7 wins above their expected record — their first-order Pythagenpat projection based on actual runs scored and runs allowed. They’re 13.5 wins above their second-order projection, based on Equivalent Runs scored and allowed as derived from run elements (hits, walks, total bases, stolen bases, etc.) and adjusted for their park and league scoring environment. And they’re 12.2 wins above their third-order projection, adjusting for the quality of their opponents’ pitching and hitting via Equivalent Average (EqA) allowed and opponents’ EqA. That last figure would tie for third all-time if the season were to have ended on Sunday (the Angels lost on Monday night, slightly lowering these figures). Turning to the big board for the top 20: 


Rk   YEAR   TM     W    L     PCT    R    RA   AEQR  AEQRA   D3    Won
1    2004   NYA   101   61   .623   897   808   911   831   12.7   Div
2    1970   CIN   102   60   .630   775   681   757   676   12.6   Pnt
3T   2007   ARI    90   72   .556   712   732   708   739   12.2   Div
3T   2008   LAA    79   50   .612   600   547   588   566   12.2   
5T   1954   BRO    92   62   .597   778   740   782   749   12.1       
5T   2005   CHA    99   63   .611   741   645   740   684   12.1   WS
7    1905   DET    79   74   .516   512   604   524   601   11.9         
8T   1924   BRO    92   62   .597   717   679   717   684   11.7         
8T   2002   MIN    94   67   .584   768   712   759   741   11.7   Div  
10   1954   CLE   111   43   .721   746   504   717   511   11.4   Pnt    
11T  1907   CHN   108   44   .711   574   390   552   394   11.2   WS     
11T  1961   CIN    93   61   .604   710   653   705   658   11.2   Pnt    
13T  1931   PHA   107   45   .704   858   626   841   639   11.0   Pnt      
13T  1972   NYN    83   73   .532   528   578   533   583   11.0        
15   1984   NYN    90   72   .556   652   676   657   671   10.7        
16T  1936   SLN    87   67   .565   795   794   808   809   10.2         
16T  1977   BAL    97   64   .602   719   653   719   662   10.2       
16T  2006   OAK    93   69   .574   771   727   791   772   10.2   Div    
19T  1997   SFN    90   72   .556   784   793   780   789   10.0   Div   
19T  2007   SEA    88   74   .543   794   813   792   824   10.0

Since the spreadsheet provided to me by Clay Davenport (who cooks up the Adjusted Standings every day) doesn’t go beyond the first decimal place, I haven’t bothered to break the ties here. AEQR and AEQRA are the adjusted Equivalent Run figures once opponent strength has been incorporated. D3 is the difference between third-order wins and actual wins, with a positive number representing a team that’s exceeded its projection. “Won” notes whether a team won their division (Div), pennant (Pnt) or World Series (WS).

One thing that most of these teams, including the Angels, have in common is a top-notch bullpen; all of the teams above who have played since 1954 (the furthest back the BP database goes) finished in the top three in the league in BP’s signature relief stat, Reliever Expected Wins Added (WXRL) with one exception: the 1977 Orioles, who had the worst bullpen in the league.

Anyway, there’s much fun to be had with stuff like this, enough to provide material for a second article somewhere in the not-too-distant future.

PADE in Full

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Today’s Prospectus Hit and Run is on Park-Adjusted Team Defense, a topic I’ve broached before:

For those in need of a refresher course, PADE is Baseball Prospectus alum James Click’s method for bringing park effects to bear upon Bill James’ Defensive Efficiency (DE) rate, which tells us how often a team turns a batted ball into an out. PADE compares each club’s Defensive Efficiency at home to that on the road, incorporating a three-year park factor specific to DE (as opposed to runs, home runs, or another component stat) and the unique composition of each team’s schedule. The end product tells us the percentage of balls in play above or below the major league average that each team converts into outs. A one percent difference may not sound like much, but extrapolating from Click’s calculations, it’s worth about 13 runs—more than one win in the standings.

…the 2008 PADE figures: 

Team    DE   MLB DE  PkFactor  PADE
CHN   .7085   .692   0.9957    2.60
BOS   .6994   .692   0.9794    2.13
ATL   .7011   .692   0.9921    1.73
OAK   .7113   .692   1.0313    1.21
ANA   .6995   .692   1.0010    1.03
PHI   .6985   .692   1.0009    0.90
TBA   .7111   .692   1.0382    0.84
FLO   .6917   .692   0.9860    0.67
ARI   .6943   .692   0.9950    0.59
NYN   .7039   .692   1.0285    0.29
CLE   .6880   .692   0.9862    0.12
TOR   .7026   .692   1.0302    0.02
DET   .6923   .692   1.0008    0.01
BAL   .6960   .692   1.0133   -0.08
HOU   .6917   .692   1.0049   -0.28
MIL   .6976   .692   1.0245   -0.40
SLN   .6965   .692   1.0232   -0.50
SFN   .6832   .692   0.9933   -0.94
KCA   .6852   .692   0.9996   -0.96
CHA   .6897   .692   1.0134   -1.00
LAN   .6916   .692   1.0199   -1.03
COL   .6796   .692   0.9889   -1.23
SDN   .6940   .692   1.0307   -1.23
WAS   .6901   .692   1.0207   -1.30
NYA   .6843   .692   1.0240   -2.28
SEA   .6805   .692   1.0180   -2.54
MIN   .6844   .692   1.0436   -3.20
PIT   .6769   .692   1.0255   -3.41
TEX   .6708   .692   1.0157   -3.82
CIN   .6712   .692   1.0272   -4.30

…Given the 2007 year-end results, it’s not terribly shocking to find the most recent Hit List‘s top two teams, the Red Sox and Cubs, occupying the top spots even if they’re flip-flopped here. The Cubs have produced the league’s top raw DE in Wrigley Field, a park whose ivy-covered walls and small foul territory place it as slightly harder than average to defend. It’s worth noting that their pitching staff has the majors’ second-best strikeout rate, since high strikeout rates tend to have some impact as far as lowering BABIP figures. On the other hand, the team has overcome the slight disadvantage of playing more day games than any other, as the splits show BABIPs as about four points higher in the sunshine. In any event, the Fielding Runs Above Average numbers show the Cubs playing above-average defense at every position, particularly at second base (Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot) and the outfield corners (Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome). Given that strikeout rate and FRAA themselves factor into the Secret Sauce recipe, it’s no wonder that Nate Silver is ready to crown them champions.

The Red Sox, of course, have to defend the Green Monster and Fenway’s other assorted quirks, and while they’re seventh in the majors in raw DE, they look much better after accounting for those idiosyncrasies. The Coco Crisp/Jacoby Ellsbury center-field tandem is a combined 13 runs above average, even with Crisp failing to live up to last year’s astounding/fluky +41 showing. FRAA is extremely—overly—sensitive to the distribution of discretionary plays divided up between fielding neighbors, and Crisp’s 2007 showing is almost certainly an artifact of his covering for Manny Ramirez, who improved to -5 last year after four seasons of being in double-digit negatives. The long-gone slugger rates at about average this year thanks to the help of Crisp and Ellsbury, and while there’s not a lot to love about the sight of Manny playing defense, its impact on the team’s performance has been dramatically overstated by the jury—as has virtually every other aspect surrounding his acrimonious departure from Boston. Elsewhere for the Sox, Mike Lowell and friends (particularly Kevin Youkilis, who’s held down the hot corner admirably while Lowell’s been sidelined) are 18 runs above average at third base, and the only spot on the diamond where the team is below average is at shortstop, where Jed Lowrie (-1) has replaced an injured Julio Lugo (-14).

Speaking of the Red Sox, this morning I began what’s now becoming my second regular radio gig of the week. Every Wednesday at 8:05 AM Eastern, I’ll be appearing on the Young Guns Show on Boston’s WWZN 1510. If you’re not asleep, in your car, or inside the station’s blasting radius, you can catch my 15-minute segment via the station’s website.

Operation Shut Up

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Hello, friends. I know it’s been ages since I weighed in here, possibly the longest between-postings hiatus in the history of this site. In the hours following the trading deadline, my kidneys shut down while struggling to process the Manny Ramirez-to-L.A. deal deal. It had already been a rough year for this bicoastal fan, what with Joe Torre moving from the Yankees to the Dodgers and bringing every bad habit with him, and then they put Nomar Garciaparra back at shortstop like it was 2001 or something, and finally Manny showed up with a number 99 jersey like he was some kind of Wayne Gretzky in dreadlocks… My body simply couldn’t take much more, and I wound up on the DL.

Ok, that’s not exactly how it happened.

The truth of the matter is that aside from dealing with a fair amount of summer travel (five weekends away out of six) that’s wrought havoc with my writing schedule, I’ve been invited to step up the frequency with which I publish at Baseball Prospectus. Last week, I wrote my usual monster Hit List as well as two Hit and Run columns, both on surprise contenders who were able to upgrade their rotations from within recently, namely the Marlins and the Twins. The weeks through the end of the season should see a similar schedule.

As for last week’s output, here’s a chunk from the intro to the first one:

Given the buzz surrounding the blockbuster trades which were consummated in recent weeks—and even the ones that weren’t—you may not have noticed one of the contenders who upgraded their rotation rather quietly. They didn’t have to sacrifice a blue-chipper or even a B-grade prospect at the altar of contention, either. Instead, they were able to recall pitchers from within their system—a strapping rookie, and a pair of young, high-upside pitchers coming back from major arm injuries but primed to contribute down the stretch.

The team in question is the Marlins, who have been hanging around the top of the NL East all season long despite a PECOTA forecast of 72 wins, a run differential that’s been in the red in every month except May, and a prediction of impending doom from just about every pundit who’s weighed in on their outlook (myself included). They’re not without their virtues, of course… their offense is solidly in the middle of the pack, sixth in the league in raw scoring at 4.75 runs per game, and seventh in Equivalent Average (all stats through Sunday).

Yet the Marlins have been outscored by 18 runs because they rank 13th in the league at 4.90 runs allowed per game. Their relievers have been very good, ranking third in WXRL despite having the highest walk rate (4.0 UIBB/9) of any bullpen in the league. On the other hand, their rotation’s numbers look pretty dismal relative to the rest of the NL, far from the stuff of contention: 

          IP/GS    ERA   SNLVAR  SNWP
Marlins    5.56   4.97    8.7    .472
NL Rank     15     13      13      14

SNWP is the rotation’s Support Neutral Winning Percentage. It’s something I’ve been discussing since last year, a figure which estimates the percentage of the time a pitcher’s team would win a game given average offense and bullpen support. Our stat reports don’t actually list this in the format you see here (yet…), but if you take a pitcher or team’s SNLVA_R (Support Neutral Lineup Adjusted Value Added Rate, not to be confused with Support Neutral Lineup Adjusted Value Above Replacement) and add .5, you’ll get that SNWP. Think of it as a sabermetric approximation of a quality start rate, and thank Keith Woolner.

Anyway, the rotation that plunged the Marlins into the bottom quartile of the league in those four categories is last week’s Fish wrap. As badly as it stinks, it bears only passing resemblance to the unit Fredi Gonzalez is currently penciling into his lineup cards. Scott Olsen (4.04 ERA, 2.9 SNLVAR) and Ricky Nolasco (3.92 ERA, 3.0 SNLVAR) are the only holdovers left from the beginning of the year, and instead of Andrew Miller, Mark Hendrickson, Burke Badenhop, Ryan Tucker, Rick VandenHurk, or Eulogio De La Cruz—a group which combined to make 58 of the team’s 118 starts while yielding a 6.38 ERA in that role—the starting five now includes Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad.

The Twins one centers on their (mostly) homegrown rotation and the recent recall of ace-in-waiting Francisco Liriano:

On the whole, the rotation has performed in the realm of league average, putting up a 4.49 ERA and averaging 5.9 innings per start, all good for a .507 Support Neutral Winning Percentage, the frequency with which a pitcher’s team can be expected to win given average offensive and bullpen support. The staff’s general inability to miss bats has been countered by the stinginess with which they issue walks. They’ve allowed the fewest in the league, and the rotation’s walk rate (2.04 BB/9) is half a walk better than the next-closest team, the Indians. The quartet that’s shaken out since the increasingly disappointing Bonser was sent to the bullpen at the end of May—Baker, Kevin Slowey, and rookies Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins—are home-grown products straight off the assembly line of the organization that in past years produced Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse. These are all finesse pitchers who did not or do not blow the ball by hitters, but who instead survive and occasionally thrive thanks to their pinpoint control. Baker’s the only one of the four striking out more than 6.3 per nine, Perkins is the only one passing more than 1.9 hitters per nine, and all of them rank among the league’s top 35 in SNLVAR. They’re an ideal building block for a cost-conscious team, and as the Yankees can tell you, they can stop a contender in their tracks.

The fifth slot in the rotation is the unit’s wild card. Opening Day starter [Livan] Hernandez was a success on at least one level, eating 139 2/3 innings and pitching surprisingly well for a guy unable to strike out four hitters per nine. Through May 17, he went 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA, but his hittable ways caught up with him, and his next 13 starts yielded a 6.87 ERA. Strong offensive support (5.7 runs per game) and a respectable won-loss record camouflaged his woes and may have forestalled his inevitable departure via the waiver wire.

As for Liriano, he didn’t pitch at all in 2007, and his arrival in spring training was delayed by visa problems. Though he had reportedly gone as high as 97 mph with his fastball at the team’s Dominican academy this winter, that velocity was nowhere to be found in Florida. He began the year in the minors, making one start for Triple-A Rochester before being recalled. He was pounded for an 11.32 ERA in three starts for the Twins, starts which revealed major command problems (7/13 K/BB) as well as confidence issues, and by month’s end was sent back to Rochester.

He languished there, throwing 18 starts and 114 innings, an excessively long stay by any stretch of the imagination. His overall Triple-A numbers were more than respectable for a pitcher rehabbing from Tommy John surgery (3.28 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9), and over his last six starts they were downright dominant (1.10 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 51/6 K/BB, and 0.2 HR/9). The team’s efforts to rehabilitate their 24-year-old would-be ace appear to have been conflated with the desire to discipline him for a lack of candor in discussing the condition of his arm. Manager Ron Gardenhire admittedly harbored some resentment over a problem that’s spanned from Liriano’s pre-injury days when he pitched through pain, to this spring, when he was concerned enough about his elbow to shy from throwing his slider at maximum effort. Add in the fact that his extended stay in the minors will prevent him from achieving Super Two status, thus staving off arbitration with the notoriously tight-fisted team for a year and triggering a grievance on the pitcher’s behalf, and you’ve got a situation that raises some eyebrows. At the very least, the Twins have wasted some of their potential ace’s 2008 bullets.

Whew. Also, for those of you who missed it, here are links to the Hit Lists of August 1 (the post-trade dealdine edition), August 8, and August 15. And if you still can’t get enough of my two-week-old yammerings, check this chat, yet another wrap-up of the trade deadline.

Happily, my increased presence at BP is something which will be continuing into the foreseeable future. What that means for this site in the grand scheme of things is unclear. To an even greater extent than before, I’ll be saving most of my bullets for my work there, with pointers to that work back here. I’m hoping to make up for that by settling into a habit of shorter posts here — you know, like the kids do — but we both know that’s something I’ve yet to acquire the knack for, and it may take some doing. I can promise you this, though: lots of four-letter words, and I don’t mean VORP.

What all of this means is even more of my writing winding up behind BP’s subscription wall, which in turn means it’s time to go PBS telethon for a minute.

Many of you who read this site are already BP subscribers, while others would sooner run naked down the nearest interstate carrying oversized effigies of Murray Chass’ bald head before handing over a nickel for web-based content. I applaud both factions, for such variety is the spice of life, and anyway, if you’re in the latter camp, you’ll soon be getting the help you need. As for the former, I thank you immensely. Traffic and customer satisfaction with my work are big reasons why I’ve been asked to increase my frequency. For that somewhat more amorphous middle of the spectrum — particularly those of you who enjoy reading my more analytical work and want the stuffed bunny rabbit sitting next to me to survive until the next sunrise — please consider subscribing to BP, even if only for a month or two, to see if the new Now With At Least 50% More Jaffe blend suits your stretch drive needs.

OK, enough shilling. I’ll be back soon enough.

Jet Lag, Deadline Drama, and Endless Patter

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Back from my west coast swing (no to be confused with my western swing). I had a great time visiting friends in Seattle, catching up with family and watching killer whales on San Juan Island, and packing my stay in Los Angeles with trips to museums — the Getty, MOCA, LACMA, the Norton Simon. Our trip was extended by a day when our Sunday morning flight was canceled due to bad weather in the New York area, but like most extra-inning affairs, the bonus portion wore me down a bit and threw off my entire schedule.

Hence the lack of a blog entry here in quite some time. The Yankees in particular have been busy beavers, bashing their way back to relevance and upgrading their team by acquiring Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte, and Ivan Rodriguez while jettisoning three-fifths of their Triple-A rotation, disappointing prospect/suspect Jose Tabata, and big-money relievers Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins. Typical Brian Cashman deadline no-brainer slam dunks. Why is it the Red Sox make so much damn noise with their non-moves while the Stealth Bomber just gets deals done with so little prior warning? Sermon for another day, but let’s just say nobody in New York plays the house organ the way some of those famous Boston writers do.

I’ll be weighing in on the Yankees’ deals and those of everybody else several times over the next two days at Baseball Prospectus, via the upcoming Hit List, a group roundtable at 2 PM Eastern (similar to the fabulous All-Star Game roundtable), and my own post-deadline wrap-up chat on Friday at 2 PM Eastern. I’ll also be appearing on the Rotowire Fantasy Sports Hour with Chris Liss, today at 2 PM Eastern on XM 144.

Anyway I had plenty of baseball for the trip while in L.A., attending last Saturday’s Dodgers-Nationals game and visiting a pair of public libraries for a pair of baseball exhibits. For the Dodger game, a friend who works A&R for a record company scored the company’s tickets, plush box seats at the edge of the infield on the first base side. With those prime ducats we also had access to the all-you-can-eat Stadium Club, and had barely stuffed our faces with Dodger Dogs and other meat products before Matt Kemp’s two-run homer and Nomar Garciaparra’s sacrifice fly put the home team up 3-0 in the first inning at former Dodger Odalis Perez’s expense. Nomar added a homer, new kid Casey Blake (acquired that morning from the Indians in a deal I’ll have harsh words for elsewhere) got two hits including a double, and Derek Lowe cracked two hits himself, one more than he allowed in eight sterling innings.

Did I mention the beer cups with the ridiculous flashing lights on the bottom? So giddy were we at our seats that we sprung for those to amplify the already-festive atmosphere. Compared to this opulent spread in such a beautiful, spacious ballpark, attending a ballgame at Yankee Stadium these days is like being beaten in the kidneys with a truncheon. I’ll show you the Bronx indeed. (That said, Score Bard Ken Arneson’s take on the House That Ruth Built is well worth your time.)

As for the exhibits, first up was “Play Ball! Images of Dodger Blue, 1958-1988″ at the Los Angeles Central Public Library. Spread over two rooms, it’s a collection of a few dozen photos, mainly from the archives of the now-defunct Los Angeles Herald Examiner, retracing all of the high notes (and a few low ones) in L.A. Dodger history. I found it impossible not to crack a shit-eating grin upon seeing famous shots of Fernando Valenzuela, Kirk Gibson and the Longest-Running Infield, but I also had a few groans for the sight of Chavez Ravine residents fighting eviction and Dodger infielders haplessly looking on while Willie Davis misplayed a ball in the 1966 World Series. The press release roll call of those pictured: “[T]he team’s arrival in 1957, Wally Moon and baseball at the L.A. Coliseum, Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Walter O’Malley and the battle over Chavez Ravine, Roy Campanella, Vin Scully, Jaime Jarrin, Maury Wills, James Roark’s Pulitzer Prize-nominated photograph of Rick Monday’s rescue of the American Flag, Tommy John surgery, Andy Messersmith and the advent of free agency, Garvey-Lopes-Russell-Cey, Dusty Baker and the first ‘high five,’ Fernando Mania, Al Campanis, Orel Hershiser, Kirk Gibson, and more.” Can’t beat that if you’re a Dodger fan.

With two nights flopping in Pasadena, I also finally found time to pay a visit to The Baseball Reliquary to see their greatest hits exhibition, “The Tenth Inning”. The Reliquary is a celebration of baseball’s oddballs and outcasts and a confrontation with the game’s sometimes unseemly history, particularly its racism. Its Shrine of the Eternals honors the likes of Jim Abbott, Dick Allen, Moe Berg, Yogi Berra, Ila Borders, Jim Bouton, Jim Brosnan, Roberto Clemente, Rod Dedeaux, Dock Ellis, Mark Fidrych, Curt Flood, Josh Gibson, “Dummy” Hoy, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Bill James, Bill “Spaceman” Lee, Marvin Miller, Minnie Minoso, Satchel Paige, Jimmy Piersall, Pam Postema, Jackie Robinson, Lester Rodney, Valenzuela, Bill Veeck Jr., and Kenichi Zenimura.

I missed this year’s induction ceremony of Bill Buckner and the late Buck O’Neill and Emmett Ashford (good writeup here), but over the course of three rooms spread out on the library’s ground floor admired The Tenth Inning’s mini-exhibits devoted to Robinson, Berg, Fernando (including one of those exquisite orange crate paintings by Ben Sakoguchi, several of which were elsewhere in the exhibit. Somebody’s absolutely got to do a coffee-table book of these), Postema, Veeck (including one of his wooden legs), Louis Sockalexis (including a cool Hatch Show Print poster, one of five by the famous Nashville letterpress that the Reliquary has commissioned) and a whole lot more. Fine stuff, and well worth the trip if you’re anywhere in the area, though I should warn you that the current exhibit closes today. Don’t sleep.

Speaking of which, miles to go and all that. I’m sure we’ll have plenty more to discuss before the next two days are done, so check in with me over at BP if you want to talk some baseball.