Man Bites Dog: Jay Links Post

I generally stay away from referencing the New York Post because I find their tabloid mentality and the politics behind it so reprehensible. But two articles today got my attention.

The first one is about Mets co-owner Nelson Doubleday’s accusations that baseball cooks its books to hide profits. Doubleday is attempting to sell his half of the team to co-owner Fred Wilpon based on a provision of their longstanding partnership in which one party can buy out the other at a value determined by an appraiser. The hitch is that the valuation placed on the franchise–by a crony of Commissioner Bud Selig–is out of line other estimates of the team’s worth (previous offers for the team, Forbes Magazine’s estimate, and the price the Boston Red Sox fetched when sold over the winter, for example). The story is being widely covered, but it was the Post’s back-page headline, “END IS NEAR FOR SELIG” which reeled me in. Man, that tabloid shit is STRONG.

In the Post article, Tom Keegan speculates–perhaps a bit breathlessly–that this controversy couild spell the end of Selig’s reign. He writes:

Driving one more nail – no, not a nail, this one is a spike aced with arsenic – into the coffin of Selig’s reign as commissioner, an outgoing member of the Old Boy Network let the whole world know that, guess what, the owners do cook their books.

In what has the appearance of an old boy leaving the Old Boy Network and thereby feeling as if he can finally tell the truth, Mets co-owner Nelson Doubleday fingered baseball yesterday in papers filed Tuesday in federal court for Doubleday’s lawsuit against co-owner Fed Wilpon.

Doubleday maintains the commissioner was “in cahoots” with Wilpon and Arthur Andersen accountant Robert Starkey to “manufacture phantom operating losses” in baseball’s books.

While this might get ugly, it just as easily could disappear like smoke if Doubleday is able to wring another $50 to $100 million out of Wilpon for his half of the team. Far more promising, in my opinion, is the RICO suit brought by the former Montreal Expos owners, because Selig is actually a defendant in that case. But either way, and even with the fantasy that a deal with the Players’ Association might arrive in time to avert a strike, a few more vultures are circling around Bud.

A sharp writer named Dan Lewis, who keeps a sports blog of his own, dlewis.net, as well as writing for various other online publications, does a nice, quick dissection of the Doubleday matter as well as related economic issues surrounding the game. Lewis runs down “The Seven Deadly Disputes” at the heart of baseball’s labor war. The 60/40 rule (in which a team’s asset-to-debt ratio may not exceed that arbitrary balance), he writes, “is 100% a salary cap.” Add this man to your reading list.

• • • • •

The second Post piece is about the still-struggling Mike Mussina and the Yanks’ pitching woes as a whole. On Tuesday, Moose allowed a career-worst 14 hits to the Kansas City Royals, who have the league’s lowest batting average. Joel Sherman summarizes Mussina’s futility:

In his last 19 starts, which stretches to late April, Mussina has pitched to a 5.48 ERA. Since June 1, the AL is hitting .315 off him. Over his superb career, Mussina always has possessed the moxie and arsenal to escape jams. But the Royals were 7-for-15 with men on base against him, and for the season his average against in those spots is .311 and worse (.324) with runners in scoring position.

This data meshes nicely with the situational OPS breakdowns I ranted about a few days ago. Here is a revised version showing Mussina’s OPS (On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage) allowed with no baserunners (0), runners on base (1+) and runners in scoring position (RISP):

                      0     1+   RISP

Before last night   648   893   930

Last night vs. KC   933  1118  1000

After last night    656   914   934

It takes a lot of work for a single outing to raise an OPS 21 points; Mussina’s performance last night was really that bad. Upon examining these numbers after his Texas start, I suggested that Mussina’s ridiculous stretch move (a.k.a. the Goddamn Drinking Bird) may be part of his problem, as the move may be inhibiting the control or velocity of his pitches. But in examining last night’s outcome, a few other possibilites have reared their heads:

• Mussina could be tipping his pitches. This possiblity was suggested to Mussina after last night’s outing, but he dismissed it, at least publicly. However, as NY Times writer Jack Curry notes, “Mussina said batters were hitting different pitches while he was ahead in the count, which sounds like a description for tipping pitches. To that, Mussina said: ‘I should just tell them what’s coming then. Maybe that will make it easier on me.'”

• Baserunners could be stealing Jorge Posada’s signs. Similar to the tipped pitch theory, this also meshes with Moose’s woes with men on base. Either way, the Yanks ought to be checking their video for clues.

• Mussina could be hiding an injury. While Moose is considerably easier to communicate with and more forthcoming than Orlando Hernandez (the master of the concealed injury), he may have nagging minor injuries which are contributing to his woes. Recall that El Duque’s seemingly minor toe problems contributed to his considerably more major pitching woes last season.

Noting a lack of velocity on Mussina’s fastball and crispness on his breaking pitches, ESPN’s Rob Neyer suggests that Moose is suffering from a lack of arm strength, and what he calls “the Yankees’ laissez faire attitude toward the health of their pitchers’ arms.” While Neyer may be onto something about the arm strength, the latter accusation is absolutely unfounded given the Yanks’ conservative approach to injuries. The organization has uniformly addressed injuries to Pettitte, Hernandez, Rivera, Clemens, Hitchcock, ad infinitum with the focus on making sure they were ready for the postseason. Not to get all indignant, but for Neyer to suggest otherwise shows that he’s not paying very close attention. Still, he does have a point when he writes, “With luck, there’s nothing wrong with Moose that a two-week vacation in Tampa can’t cure.”

• Sometimes, he just sucks. Slumps happen, and overthinking or pressing to shake them often tends to make matters worse. Mussina has conceded that he has a tendency to overanalyze his mechanics, but struggling like this is uncharted territory for him. All the more reason why the Tampa Cure might be in order, especially with Roger Clemens coming off of the disabled list.

Hopefully, Mussina and the Yankee organization can get to the bottom of this mystery before too long. And maybe Brian Cashman should talk to David Cone after all.