Predictions and Projections

Happy belated Opening Day! The season is underway, of course, and I’ve been particularly busy finishing up the Fantasy Baseball Index Spring Update series, drafting a fantasy team of my own to compete in the True Blue LA league, and trying to keep my head above water at Baseball Prospectus.

For starters, here’s my entry in the BP staff’s Preseason Predictions. Now, with the caveat that I don’t think these mean terribly much, nor am I terribly good at them, I’ve got the Rays, Twins and Rangers winning their respective AL divisions, with the Yankees as the Wild Card, meaning I’ve predicted that the Red Sox will be the team on the outside looking in — hey, somebody’s gotta stay home. And yes, I did intentionally leave fifth place in the AL Central blank, reserving sixth for the Royals. As for the NL, I’ve essentially predicted a repeat of last year’s postseason slate, with the Phillies, Cardinals and Dodgers joined by the Wild Card-winning Rockies.

Here are my award predictions:

AL MVP: 1. Evan Longoria 2. Joe Mauer 3. Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young: 1. Felix Hernandez 2. CC Sabathia 3. Justin Verlander
AL Rookie of the Year: 1. Brian Matusz 2. Neftali Feliz 3. Austin Jackson

NL MVP: 1. Chase Utley 2. Albert Pujols 3. Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young: 1. Roy Halladay 2. Clayton Kershaw 3. Tim Lincecum
NL Rookie of the Year: 1. Jason Heyward 2. Stephen Strasburg 3. Aroldis Chapman

AL East, NL West and NL MVP aside, my picks matched the consensus at BP, probably the first time that’s all happened.

Meanwhile, this year I’ve decided to split up the weekly Prospectus Hit List into AL and NL versions. The preseason versions of each went up late last week. The NL version is here, and the AL version is here, topped by the three beasts of the AL East:

#1 Red Sox
Defensive Posturing? New England worrywarts may fret about a lack of offense straight out of some Borgesian nightmare. Indeed, the winter’s key arrivals—John Lackey, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron—tilt more towards run prevention, bolstering the rotation both directly and with a renewed commitment to defense borne of last year’s sorry 28th-place ranking in Defensive Efficiency. As for the offense, relax chowdaheads, we’ve got the Sox projected for a True Average of .270 (second-best in the majors), not to mention the top record in all of baseball. (847 RS, 696 RA)

#2 Rays
Rays-ed Hopes: The darlings of 2008 got a harsh lesson in come-back-to-earthiness last year, but this team is so stacked it should carry an NSFW tag. The addition of Wade Davis to the rotation, the continued development of David Price and a bounceback from B.J. Upton all add to the upside achievable by this talented corps, headed by MVP candidate Evan Longoria and the lineup’s Swiss Army knife, Ben Zobrist, and backed by an organizational depth which is simply unrivaled. (820 RS, 705 RA)

#3 Yankees
No rest for the World Champions. Despite their efforts to get younger—punting Johnny Damon and Hideki Matusi for Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson—their success still hinges upon whether Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera can continue defying the aging process, not to mention whether Alex Rodriguez’s hip remains intact. PECOTA sees the Yanks having their hands full battling the younger Rays and deeper Red Sox, and that’s without accounting for their efforts to ward off the inevitable distractions surrounding The Jobacalypse. (859 RS, 749 RA)

Though I split the two leagues, I also posted a combined Hit List ranking, using a league adjustment factor to correct for the AL’s recent interleague superiority. Those rankings look pretty askew, with only one NL team in the top eight, and only one AL team in the bottom 10:

Rk   Tm          HLF
1 Red Sox .622
2 Rays .591
3 Yankees .590
4 Phillies .537
5 Rangers .536
6 Mariners .534
7 Athletics .534
8 Twins .526
9 Cardinals .526
10 Tigers .512
11 Indians .512
12 Rockies .512
13 White Sox .512
14 Braves .511
15 Orioles .502
16 Angels .501
17 Royals .495
18 Dodgers .490
19 Giants .483
20 D'backs .482
21 Marlins .469
22 Astros .465
23 Cubs .462
24 Mets .462
25 Blue Jays .460
26 Brewers .456
27 Reds .456
28 Nationals .433
29 Padres .425
30 Pirates .402

The Dodgers below the Royals and Orioles? As I wrote in the One-Hopper entry, I’ve got a hard time accepting that. Soon enough we’ll have enough real results to put the projections aside, but for the moment, it’s something to chew on.

Back later with more…

V for Venditte, I for Icebox

In honor of Pat Venditte’s spring fling with the Yankees, I’ve got a One-Hopper at Baseball Prospectus, covering not only his appearance but also a history of switch-pitching:

It was only one inning and change in an exhibition game, but on Tuesday the Yankees finally got a good look at Pat Venditte, the ambidextrous reliever who has pitched for three of their lower minor league affiliates over the last two years. Drafted out of Creighton in the 20th round in 2008, Venditte has been regarded by the media simply as a curiosity, and even his own organization has treated him more as a suspect than a prospect. Nonetheless, he’s done nothing but deliver the goods when asked, compiling dominating numbers — 1.53 ERA, 11.6 strikeouts per nine and 6.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, against just 6.7 hits per nine — in an even 100 innings. Intrigued, manager Joe Girardi requested that the Yankees bring him along to the Braves camp for a command performance in a split-squad game. “I’ve wanted to see it all spring,” said the Yankee skipper.

Venditte entered the game in the fifth inning in relief of CC Sabathia, and after warming up with four pitches as a lefty, threw four more as a righty, switching his six-fingered mitt to the opposite hand as he did (alas, MLB.com&’s video edit fails to capture it). The book on him is that he throws harder from the right, with a four-pitch arsenal which includes an 87-89 mph fastball, and scraps his curveball when throwing sidearm from the left, topping out in the low 80s.

He started auspiciously, retiring righty Yunel Escobar on two pitches, the second a grounder. Returning for the sixth, he faced six more hitters, three from the left side and three from the right side, with limited success. Venditte yielded two hits, a walk and a run, but escaped further damage when he induced switch-hitter Brooks Conrad to ground out. Prior to the at-bat, home plate umpire Mark Reilly informed Conrad of the so-called “Pat Venditte Rules” which mandate that a pitcher declare his handedness for the duration of the plate appearance, lest the opponents dance around both sides of the plate until the cows come home, as they did the first time such an occurrence happened in the New York-Penn League.

Along with a couple more grafs about the reactions of Venditte’s Yankees teammates, I appended an updated version of an April 2002 Futility Infielder post devoted to the topic of switch-pitching, complete with fresh links and an appearance by Icebox Chamberlain. It’s free, so check it out!

Mauer Power on the Road to Cooperstown

In the wake of Joe Mauer agreeing to an eight-year, $184-million contract extension with the Twins, I wrote a piece on Mauer’s Hall of Fame chances vis-à-vis JAWS, using his PECOTA projections to fill in the blanks because his major league career consists of five seasons and change. Amazingly, he’s already 31st in all-time WARP among the 1,713 catchers in our database — the 98th percentile — and 24th on the JAWS list at the position:

We can employ PECOTA and JAWS in the service of gauging [Mauer’s] progress towards Cooperstown. If he were simply to deliver what his weighted mean forecast expected of him this year (6.1 WARP), his seven-year Peak score of 40.6 WARP would be higher than five of the 13 Hall of Fame catchers, four Veterans Committee selections (Ernie Lombardi, Roger Bresnahan, Ray Schalk and Rick Ferrell) as well as the more contemporary Carlton Fisk, whose peak was diluted by injuries. That’s a decent start, particularly given that it’s within hailing distance of the Peak score component of the JAWS standard for catchers:

Rk  Player            Career   Peak   JAWS
 1  Johnny Bench*       84.7   55.0   69.9
 2  Gary Carter*        79.7   51.6   65.7
 3  Ivan Rodriguez      82.9   42.3   62.6
 4  Mike Piazza         68.7   50.1   59.4
 5  Bill Dickey*        71.9   44.6   58.3
 6  Yogi Berra*         73.2   43.8   58.5
 7  Gabby Hartnett*     73.0   42.6   57.8
 8  Buck Ewing**        66.6   46.3   56.5
 9  Carlton Fisk*       65.9   37.5   51.7
10  Joe Torre           61.8   40.0   50.9
    AVG HOF C           60.6   41.0   50.8
11  Mickey Cochrane*    55.9   40.9   48.4
12  Jorge Posada        53.6   40.7   47.2
13  Ted Simmons         53.5   37.8   45.7
14  Charlie Bennett     48.5   39.5   44.0
15  Roy Campanella*     45.7   41.0   43.4
...
23  Ernie Lombardi**    40.7   28.8   34.8
24T Joe Mauer           34.5   34.5   34.5
24T Roger Bresnahan**   38.7   30.3   34.5
33  Ray Schalk**        31.2   29.7   30.5
53  Rick Ferrell**      28.8   21.2   25.0
*BBWAA-elected Hall of Famer
**VC-elected Hall of Famer

Turning to Mauer’s PECOTA Ten-Year forecast — less useful for its relatively flat shape than for the cumulative weight of his contributions — if we were to assume he hits his PECOTA mark of 6.5 WARP in 2011, Mauer’s Peak score would rise to 45.7, as his abbreviated 2004 season would be dropped. Among enshrined catchers, that would elevate his Peak score above those of Mickey, Campy, Gabby, Yogi and Dickey, putting him in what we at the JAWS headquarters like to call “Flavor Country.” At that point we might have to start calling him Joey.

Add a third season from that Ten-Year forecast, 6.4 WARP for 2012, and Mauer’s really in business, for his Peak score would rise again, to 47.3 (dropping one of those 4.8-WARP seasons), and if you’re really into business, you should schedule c on 1099 NEC tax form for your business. Not only would that push the odds-on favorite to be the top catcher of the 21st Century past Buck Ewing, the best one of the 19th century, it would lift Mauer’s total line (53.5 Career/47.3 Peak/50.4 JAWS) above the Hall standard for catchers. And amazingly enough, he would still be shy of his 30th birthday, though he would need at least a token appearance in 2013 to reach the Hall of Fame’s ten-year eligibility rule. Less uniformity to those three phantom seasons — say, 9.0, 3.5 and 6.5 WARP over three rollercoaster years — could actually push Mauer’s peak score even higher, and he’d presumably be well on his way towards rounding off his Hall of Fame case with some minimally positive contributions in his thirties.

Further down in the piece is the data behind the unsurprising tendency of catchers to supply two-thirds of their total career value (in WARP) before the age of 30, and some back-of-the-envelope calculations showing that the flat structure of Mauer’s deal, literally $23 million per year, makes it easier for the Twins to get their money’s worth out of him, as the rising cost of a win on the open market will counter the player’s tendency towards age-related decline:

The bottom line is that even with more conservative projections than PECOTA is offering, one can model an array of happy outcomes which provide value to the Twins as Mauer marches not only towards Cooperstown but into the discussion of the top five catchers of all time, at least according to JAWS. Darker scenarios exist, of course, but so long as Mauer’s healthy and productive, let’s celebrate the upside, because we’re watching something pretty special.

Indeed. So special that I made him my first pick (fifth overall, behind Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Alex Rodriguez) in the True Blue LA Fantasy League. My team is the Dukes of Flatbush, in honor of the Dodgers’ Brooklyn history and the fact that I’m a fungo away from Flatbush Avenue. Clever, maybe, but using an unironic team name feels akin to what the players call “playing naked,” i.e., without greenies — just doesn’t have the same oomph. Any bright suggestions?

Spring Chatter

Just finished a chat at Baseball Prospectus. Some highlights:

Mike W (Chicago): How many starts do the Brewers give [Jeff] Suppan? Not that their alternatives are very attractive, but we know how this movie ends, right?

JJ: It sounds as though the Brewers are closing in on the decision to make David Bush their #4 behind Gallardo, Wolf and Davis, which leaves Manny Parra, Chris Narveson and Suppan battling for one spot. Narveson made a good impression last year, and has further helped his cause this spring, while Parra seems to have really clicked with Rick Peterson and seems eager to mend his wayward ways. I don’t think it’s out of the question that the Brewers concede Suppan is a sunk cost and cut him by the end of the spring.

And a good riddance it will be.

Nick Stone (New York, NY): Assuming [Phil] Hughes is healthy and effective as a starter, do you think the Yankees re-think the Joba rules idea when dealing with Hughes’s innings count?

JJ: I can’t possibly imagine the Yankees taking the same approach with Hughes that they took with Chamberlain, because that turned into an epic failure.

For one thing, it sounds as though Hughes will be on a longer leash, good for about 170 innings as opposed to 150, which would require less manipulation. For another, Hughes has always come off a more cerebral, better able to understand the organization’s plans for him than Joba, who increasingly seems like the guy with the 10¢ head.

On the other hand, Hughes’ reputation for fragility may make that upper bound a moot point, and it could be that he takes a midsummer vacation on the DL for even the slightest aches and pains.

tommybones (brooklyn): Having now had the chance to see [Stephen] Strasburg pitch to major league hitters, what is your impression of him?

JJ: He’s all that and a bag of chips. I was particularly impressed with how well he’s handled the spotlight given the pressure and attention. And while we shouldn’t put too much stock into the strikeout to walk ratio (12/1) and groundball to flyball ratio (14/1 on outs) bode very well for the future. He’s going to be a monster.

dianagramr (NYC): Will the Yanks regret dealing Austin Jackson? If not this year, then ever?

JJ: A lot of it depends upon how well Curtis Granderson takes to New York. Do the contact lenses help? Can he restore his ability against lefties? Can the Yankees keep one of the two playoff spots that will inevitably come out of the AL East? If the answers to those are yes, not just this year but over the next few ones, I suspect they’ll sleep OK no matter how Jackson does in Detroit.

tommybones (brooklyn): Speaking of overpaying closers, how do you see the [Jonathan] Papelbon situation playing itself out?

JJ: In tears of rage, just like the vasts majority of Red Sox player/team divorces.

The chat also provided an opportunity to point people in the general direction of this great bit from Vin Scully on Bill Veeck and the role racism played in leading teams to flee Florida spring training sites for Arizona, and to unearth I’m Keith Hernandez, the awesome short film I covered last summer. Set aside 20 minutes to watch Rob Perri’s ode to the man who put the cheese in machismo if you haven’t done so already.

Let’s Get Real

Back on February 28, I was part of the Baseball Prospectus team that visited the Yogi Berra Museum at Montclair State University in New Jersey. Beyond the usual business of promoting Baseball Prospectus 2010, the occasion was notable because HBO Real Sports sent host Bryant Gumbel and their production team to film the event and conduct interviews in the service of a segment on three transgender sportswriters, including my colleague and friend Christina Kahrl.

Christina is one of Baseball Prospectus’ co-founders and quite probably the most original talent the organization has produced. Many a BP writer can pick apart a manager’s bullpen usage, run a regression connecting market size to on-field success, or step into a major league front office to advise on Rule 5 draft options. But where else on God’s green earth can you find references to Habsburg-era archdukes in the context of breaking down the godforsaken Washington Nationals’ non-roster invitations besides Christina’s “Transaction Analysis” column, BP’s longest-running feature?

Anyway, the Real Sports segment aired on March 16, contrasting the torment and the ultimately tragic demise of the Los Angeles Times‘ Christine Daniels (née Mike Penner) with the ongoing battles for acceptance that Christina and MLB.com’s Bobbie Dittmeier wage. Both surviving writers counseled Daniels/Penner on what became a very public transition, and both have fortunately fared much better than their fallen comrade, facing their challenges with extreme courage and heartening amounts of success.

The story could have been handled in an exploitative manner, but Gumbel and company did a commendable job in treating it with sensitivity. It’s a heartbreaking but also inspiring segment, well worth watching. Given how much footage the HBO team shot, I only wish it could have been longer.

On a personal note, yes, that’s me visible in a non-speaking role at about the 5:30 mark. While I did have the decidedly surreal experience of standing next to Gumbel while watching the tying goal in the Olympic Gold Medal hockey game — which was going on at the same time as our event, cutting into our attendance — he didn’t interview me for the bit. While I wish he had, it’s not for my own ego gratification that I say that; I know what I look and sound like on television, thanks.

No, what I would have liked to add to the piece was merely that Chris Kahrl’s TA columns were the gateway drug via which I started reading BP back around the turn of the millennium, before this website had even been conceived. It wasn’t until shortly after she emerged from her transition in 2004 that I actually met her, and upon doing so, I was instantly relieved to find that talking baseball with a transgender expert was no more difficult than doing so with any male or female expert. Now I’m proud to call her a colleague, a mentor, and a friend, and via the HBO segment, I — and the rest of that episode’s audience — understand her world just a little bit better.

Lift a Finger

Jim Marshall, one of the great rock and roll photographers, passed away on Wednesday at the age of 74. Marshall photographed the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, the Who, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin and others. His work was recently featured at a Brooklyn Museum exhibit called “Who Shot Rock and Roll: A Photographic History, 1955 to the Present,” and you can see a selection of his iconic photos at his own website. It’s this iconic photograph of Johnny Cash for which I’ll always remember him:

That bad-ass shot was taken at San Quentin Prison in 1969, when Cash performed a famous concert for the inmates which was filmed for documented on the incredible Johnny Cash at San Quentin. On that album, the bond between the great performer and his audience audibly collides with the tension of the prison security. When Cash sings the composed-for-the-occasion “San Quentin” for the second time in a row, you can practically hear the guards drawing their truncheons, ready to bust heads in a full-scale riot. No live album has ever carried such an edge.

In the deluxe repackaged version which was released a few years ago, here’s what Cash had to say about the photo:

During the show at San Quentin in 1969, it seemed that Granada TV was on stage in front of me. At some point I walked around my microphone and yelled, “Clear the stage! I can’t see my audience!” Nobody moved. So I gave them “the bird.” Hence that picture.

Here’s what Sylvie Simmons’ liner notes have to say:

Cash snarls like a punk rocker at the camera with his middle finger raised… Whatever brought it on, nothing sums up the defiant, macho, outlaw Johnny Cash quite like that picture and the concert it was taken at. As Bob Johnston, At San Quentin‘s producer, recalls, “God, I’d never seen anything like it. When Cash sang ‘San Quentin, may you rot and burn in hell,’ they were on the tables yelling. A lot of the guards were up on the runways with loaded guns, backing up the doors, and I’m backed up to the door with all of these guards with guns, and I’m thinking, ‘Man! I should have brought Tammy Wynette and George Jones — anybody but Johnny Cash!'”

Several years ago, I acquired a poster of the photo, cropped to serve as a promotion for American Recordings celebrating The Man In Black’s unlikely latter-day comeback album Unchained winning the Grammy for Best Country Album. The inscription in the upper left reads: “American Recordings and Johnny Cash would like to acknowledge the Nashville Music establishment and country radio for your support.”

Cracks me up every time, which is why I have that poster hanging above my desk. Johnny Cash may be giving someone the finger, but to borrow a line from one of his singer pals, it ain’t me, babe.

Children By the Millions Sing for Alex Chilton (1950-2010)

When I first arrived in New York City back in 1995, I moved in with a friend of my downstairs neighbor in Providence, a guy who worked in film and video who had been flopping on friends’ couches in Hoboken for awhile and needed to solidify his situation with, like, a mailing address. A guy named John, who had just come off working on Ken Burns’ Baseball epic, where — I learned the better part of a decade later — he crossed paths with pal Alex Belth.

John and I were only paired in our tiny East Village apartment for about eight months, and while we weren’t exactly the fastest of friends, we had some common ground when it came to basketball (remind me to tell you the Reggie Miller story sometime) and more importantly, music. The largest portion of John’s collection was devoted to Alex Chilton, the former lead singer of the Memphis teen soul group the Box Tops and the quintessential power pop band Big Star. The latter was the vehicle by which I knew Chilton best, having purchased the band’s all-too-small catalog sometime shortly after college graduation.

John was a connoisseur of the ups and downs of Chilton’s post-Big Star ride, a solo career that had redefined the term erratic. He let me comb through that fascinating collection, and long after he bailed on the apartment to take a cross-country road trip, we’d cross paths at Chilton shows at small, dingy dives like Under Acme and Coney Island High and catch up. I haven’t seen John in years, but I think of him when I spin outre classics such as Bach’s Bottom and Like Flies on Sherbert whose warped, gritty charms were to the John Spencer Blues Explosion what the pristine melodies of #1 Record were to R.E.M. and the Replacements a decade earlier.

Chilton died Wednesday of an apparent heart attack at the age of 59, and while I was instantly saddened upon reading the news, what amazed me was how many friends on Facebook and Twitter had something to share about it — from college pals to current colleagues, as well as the more tenuous social network acquaintances (not that there’s anything wrong with them) — the vast majority of whom I’d never, ever discussed Big Star, the Box Tops or anything Chilton.

Literally, the lines in the Replacements’ tribute to a man who spent most of his career confined to cult status — despite having sung on a #1 hit song as a teenage sensation for the Box Tops, penned and recorded the original version of “In the Streets,” which as covered by disciples Cheap Trick became the theme song to the long-running That ’70s Show, and in between made three of the most beautiful, unsettling, influential and ultimately important albums of the post-Beatles canon — had come to life:

“Children by the millions sing for Alex Chilton when he comes round / They say, “I’m in love, what’s that song? / I’m in love with that song.”

Having not paid much mind to the mid-Nineties reunion in which Chilton and Big Star drummer Jody Stephens were joined by two members of the band the Posies, I guess the band wound up reaching further than I’d ever imagined, as the fans of so many bands who had cited Chilton as an influence actually gave a damn and listened to the records, bothering to track down whoever it was that sang that song they loved. Imagine that. Though he retained a standoffish attitude towards his own career, and often seemed hell-bent on self-sabotaging any shot at success, at least Chilton got to feel some of the adulation that had long eluded him.

A handful of links, both for the initiated and the not:

• An Entertainment Tonight segment on “The Letter,” the song which set a commercial high bar he never topped… or even tried to. Chilton notoriously avoided interviews later in life, so to see him actually playing ball is rather fascinating.

• A mid-Eighties segment of Chilton on 120 Minutes, playing fragments of his famous songs on acoustic guitar, again surprisingly willing to talk about his career relative to his later reluctance.

• Big Star’s “September Gurls,” my favorite track among many:

• Or maybe I meant their “Nightime,” another Big Star favorite:

• Pitchfork’s brief obit and a selection of videos.

A lengthy Crawdaddy piece covering Chilton’s career, with a special focus on the odd twists and turns his post-Big Star days took

• A nice little tribute from Caryn Rose of Metsgrrl and Jukeboxgraduate.com

• Chilton eulogized on the floor of the House of Representatives (!) by Steve Cohen (D-Tennessee):

• And finally, the Replacements’ “Alex Chilton,” the song that both cemented his legend and ultimately provide a fitting epitaph:

Children by the millions will miss you, Alex Chilton.

Willie Davis, Redux

Over at Baseball Prospectus’ new One-Hoppers blog, I’ve expanded and revised my take on Willie Davis to include some comments from the New Bill James Historical Abstract as well as my own JAWS-flavored take: “He was sort of the Mike Cameron or Kenny Lofton or Devon of his day — a fine supporting player whose merits for Cooperstown fall short of the mark, but who could certainly play. There’s no shame in that.”

It’s free, so don’t be shy.

We Got That B-Roll!

I’ve never worked in film, TV or video, but I have enough friends that do to know what a b-roll is: supplemental footage intercut with the main event in an interview, documentary or news report.

As such, this video has been cracking me up for the past couple of months. Too good not to share. It’s even got a great baseball reference to boot. Enjoy!

Willie Davis (1940-2010)

Willie Davis was before my time. He spent 18 seasons in the major leagues, from 1960 through 1976, with a brief comeback in 1979, so unless he made a cameo appearance in an Angels game I was watching in that latter year — he wasn’t in this Nolan Ryan near no-hitter — I never actually saw him play. I knew of him primarily because of a gruesome inning in the 1966 World Series in which he made three errors, a moment which represented the fall of the Sandy Koufax-era Dodgers’ mini-dynasty. He lost one fly ball in the sun, dropped the next ball, and overthrew third base on the same play as three runs scored.

Alas, that turned out to be Koufax’s final game. The pitcher was actually forgiving of Davis’ woes, and as the great Los Angeles Times columnist Jim Murray wrote, “I don’t think the shock of Game 2 of the World Series was that Willie Davis dropped two fly balls off Koufax fastballs in center field, I think it was that Koufax fastballs ended up in center field in the first place.”

Anyway, Davis was so much more than that. He patrolled center field for the Dodgers for 14 year, from 1960 through 1973, a span during which they won three pennants and two World Series. The tail end of his career overlapped with the beginnings of the great Longest Running Infield which drove the team’s next four pennants (1974-1981). He is the Los Angeles era franchise leader in hits (2,091), extra-base hits (585), at-bats (7,495), runs (1,004), triples (110) and total bases (3,094). His legacy looms large.

Davis passed away on March 9, and he was fondly remembered at a ceremony at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday which brought together several generations of Dodgers, from Peter O’Malley to Frank McCourt, from Maury Wills and Tommy Davis to Bill Russell, Ron Cey and Reggie Smith. Both his talent and humanity drew tribute. “Willie treated every player with respect and he made you feel welcomed,” said Smith, who watched Davis while growing up in Southern California and played with him in St. Louis in 1975. “Willie had it all and he was probably the fastest man I ever saw in baseball.”

Indeed, his speed was remarkable. “He was the only man I’ve ever seen who, when he hit a ball in the gap, the opposing team watched him run,” said Lou Johnson, another Dodger teammate from the Sixties. Recalled Tommy Davis (no relation), who raced against him in a 60-yard dash in spring training, “”I realized he was fast,” Davis said, “because Johnny Podres and Stan Williams were betting on him — and those guys knew how to bet.”

Davis had his critics as well, not to mention his problems. He converted to Buddhism late in his career, and was often ridiculed by closed-minded sportswriters. He had financial woes late in his career, and following it. Playing in the death valley of 1960s Dodger Stadium, the most parched run scoring environment on earth, his numbers looked meager; he hit .275/.306/.385 for his career at Chavez Ravine, .281/.314/.428 everywhere else. Still, his lifetime True Average (a/k/a Equivalent Average) was .274; a .260 is league average after adjusting for park and league scoring levels, so he was actually a significantly above-average hitter for his time. Translated to a 4.5 runs per game environment (as BP does for every player), his career line comes out to .300/.335/.467, with 2,738 hits, 242 homers and 438 steals — numbers that start to look Hall of Fame caliber — and his defense, according to BP’s numbers, was 104 runs above average for his career.

Still, he was viewed as something of an erratic player and character. As the New York Times obituary notes, Murray “suggested that Davis had tinkered with his batting stance too much. ‘Willie, you see, did imitations. The only way you could tell it wasn’t Stan Musial was when he popped up.'” (The entire Murray column from which that was taken is here. It’s worth a read.)

The best of the Davis tributes online belongs to Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle:

Willie Davis might have been the coolest ballplayer I ever saw. He exuded style, a sense of the pure aesthetic, and he could have excelled at any sport. His choice of baseball was a blessing to the game, and among those of us who watched him up close at Dodger Stadium in the early 1960s, there was no question he was the fastest man alive. In a race from first to third with a running start, I’m not sure even Bob Hayes could have caught him.

Davis was found dead Tuesday at the age of 69 (authorities believe there was no foul play), leaving behind a legacy of unique, unforgettable talent. He made two All-Star teams, racked up 2,561 hits, had a 31-game hitting streak, won three consecutive Gold Glove awards, but he wasn’t an elite outfielder in the National League. With the likes of Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Frank Robinson and Roberto Clemente in the mix, that just wasn’t possible.

What none of those players had — few that I can recall in any era — was Davis’ combination of urban cool and blazing speed. He addressed the world at a slow, measured pace, never in a rush. He basically let life come to him. Even as he approached home plate with a bat in his hands, he struck the impression of a man wearing shades at the far corner table of a jazz club.

There was lightning inside him. He turned it loose at the crack of the bat. Like so many good left-handed hitters, he crushed the low fastball, drilling it up the alleys on a laser path. That’s when Willie Davis struck fear in the hearts of every opponent, because that would be a triple.

As Tommy Lasorda inevitably lamented, Davis has gone to visit the big Dodger in the sky. So long, Willie.