A Midsummer Day’s Hit List

My annual All-Star break edition of the Hit List is up at Baseball Prospectus. The Yankees hold the #5 spot, but even with their win last night to return to .500, I remain unconvinced, consistent with my recent ranting:

Don’t kid yourselves, Yankee fans–despite the high ranking and the upcoming soft schedule, it’s all over but the shouting and pouting, not to mention the laying of bets on whether Joe Torre, Brian Cashman, or Alex Rodriguez will be around for the next step. The team’s worst first half of the three-division era has left the Yanks needing to play .684 ball the rest of the way to reach the 95-win level of the last two AL Wild Card winners, not to mention a .737 clip to match Boston’s 99-win pace. Injuries, age, and overpriced underachievement are the predominant themes here, and neither Torre nor Cashman deserve a pass for building a weak bench, forgetting first base, or the puzzling bullpen management which has contributed mightily to a 6-14 record in one-run games. For all the finger-pointing, Cashman’s efforts to rebuild the organization’s pitching depth may pay off down the road, and keeping his head at the trading deadline should merit sparing his neck come October.

Of course, even the news of the Yanks reaching .500 has been trumped by the fact that the team’s overtures to extend A-Rod’s contract have been rebuffed both by uber-agent Scott Boras and by Rodriguez himself; he’ll exercise the opt-out clause in his contract and become a free agent at the end of the season. Say what you will about the odiousness of Boras, he’s the best in the biz because he has the foresight to protect his clients with such loopholes in addition to prising the most money out of teams in the first place.

Rodriguez took the high road: “I think it would be selfish on my part to talk about my contract status when our team desperately needs wins… My goal is to win as many games as we can, focus on my teammates and really play at a real high level in the second half. That sort of thing I leave to the people upstairs. My only concern is to play baseball and play at a high level.”

Of course, what A-Rod could have said is that the team and its fans deserve to sweat a bit for the shoddy treatment they afforded him last year; he owes them no discount for the times Joe Torre, Derek Jeter, unnamed front office officials (you think that Post cover happened naturally?) and a certain segment of the fan base (to say nothing of the rabid media) have thrown him under the bus. I’m reminded of the great Simpsons “Trash of the Titans” episode, where Homer’s stint as sanitation commissioner ends with the re-election of the man he deposed, Ray Patterson. Upon returning, Patterson tells the crowd, “You know, I’m not much on speeches, but it’s so gratifying to leave you wallowing in the mess you’ve made. You’re screwed, thank you, bye.”

As it is, even without the verbal dis, Rodriguez’s dealing the team a painful enough blow by invalidating a contract to which the Texas Rangers are still contributing some $21 million over the next three years, plus another $3 mil a year (unclear for how long) in deferred payments. If the Yankees want to re-sign A-Rod, they’ll be paying all the freight next time around. Payback is a bitch.

As for the rest of the Hit List, there’s more Simpsons to be had, along with nutritional information, robot overlords, Harvey’s Wallbangers and other fun stuff. Enjoy!

• • •

On a separate note, I just got word that the first copies of It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over: the Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book–to which I contributed six chapters, including the book’s first two narratives, on the 1967 AL and 1959 NL seasons–have made their way into editor Steven Goldman’s hands, which means I’ll hopefully have my copies in hand next week. Both Basic Books and Amazon lists August 13 as the publication date, and the latter is pre-selling the hardcover for $17.13. It’s never too soon to reserve your copy!

Watch the All-Star Game? No Foxin’ Way

Yes, I’m still boycotting the All-Star Game. It sure was tempting to cave in, what with Fox’s seven-year broadcast rights re-up and the choice to play the game in front of the only crowd gullible enough to worship Barry Bonds. But once I stuffed my mouth full of aluminum foil and found an old hemostat to clamp on the webbing between my finger and my thumb, I was able to recreate the aggravation of watching Tim McCarver, Joe Buck, Scooter and the Foxies at the Taco Bell Midsummer Poxcam Classic without even turning on the television.

If you’re a hardier soul than me and plan to tune in, by all means tell Jeanne Zelasko I said hello. And don’t say I didn’t warn you…

Just When I Thought I Was Out

For all of the ranting and raving within — and about — my last two posts regarding the 2007 Yankees, I still find myself holding a handful of tickets to their ballgames. Between that fact and the obligation I have to stay on top of the team for my various BP and radio duties, I can’t shake this debacle in progress so easily. “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”

My problem, I realized as I was heading up to Monday night’s game, is that my disappointment with the current edition’s predicament is dwarfed by my disappointment with the quality of the Yankee Stadium experience, which has been in freefall over the past few year. heavy-handed “security” thugs have made entering and exiting the stadium increasingly difficult. The backpack/briefcase ban is completely unnecessary; if you were going to smuggle, say, a tactical nuclear weapon into a New York area venue, Shea Stadium, which allows backpacks and briefcases, is much closer to an international airport and therefore a more desirable option. The concessions continue to rise in cost; premium beer prices on Becks, Heineken and Fosters appear to have risen in-season. And beyond the modest upgrade provided by Nathan’s hot dogs the last few years, the ballpark continues to offer third-rate food — go to Camden or Miller Park or Safeco Field and you can get a much more appetizing set of options, barbecue, bratwurst, what have you.

It’s all come to the point that I plan to reduce considerably my annual expenditure on all things Yankee, new stadium be damned. I can’t envision buying a walk-up ticket again, and beyond my ticket plan, I’m not about to submit to the online rape via Ticketmaster; I just don’t care for the experience enough to submit to additional gouging. The Yankees won’t miss me so long as they continue to draw upwards of four million fans, but that only points to the steps they’ve taken to alienate a significant portion of their customer base to appease a more casually interested crowd.

So as I headed to Monday’s game, the combination of these feelings and those about the 2-9 slide which had the local media reaching the same conclusion I reached last week gave me an uneasy feeling in my stomach. I didn’t even pack a scorebook, something I’ve done for every Yankees game since 2001. That’s alienation.

Mitigating all of that was the fact that I’d be attending the game with my friend Nick, seeing him for the first time since his return from his honeymoon. What could be better than catching up with a good friend over a few beers at the ballpark on a beautiful night? Nothing, really, though since Nick actually left his ticket at home and required some creative, um, acquisition to enter the ballpark, the cameraderie was delayed until the second inning or so, by which point the Yankees had squandered the first-inning lead they netted when Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera started things off with a pair of singles.

Nonetheless, once Roger Clemens got through the second, he was absolutely stifling. I’ve seen almost none of the Rocket’s work since he signed, and with a 5.32 ERA coming into the game, I was hardly thrilled to do so; memories of booing him for most of 1999 — at least until he sealed the deal by clinching the World Championship in my presence — added to the aforementioned stew of unhappiness on my trip to the park. But after allowing Michael Cuddyer’s second-inning single, Clemens would only surrender one more hit for the night, pitching eight solid innings to short-circuit a shaky and poorly managed bullpen.

After netting their first-inning run, the Yanks threatened several times against Twins’ starter Boof Bonser. Not until the fifth inning, when he struck out Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada in succession did Bonser keep the bases spotless, and from that high-water mark it was all downhill. Andy Phillips sparked a sixth-inning rally with a one-out double, followed by a single from Robinson Cano. That chased Bonser in favor of Juan Rincon, who walked both Damon and Cabrera, forcing in a run. Jeter broke the game open with a two-run single through the left side, and suddenly the stadium crowd of 53,036 roared with a zeal that recalled happier times at the stadium. That mood was quickly replaced by concern when A-Rod tumbled after colliding with Justin Morneau at first base, having legged out a fielder’s choice and avoided the double play, summoning trainer Stevie Donahue. When Posada walked, Rodriguez again called for help, and he was removed for pinch-runner Miguel Cairo. Hamstring was the upper deck diagnosis, and though Rodriguez would wind up back in the lineup the following night, this was a scary moment.

Scarier still was watching Nick’s consumption of Yankee Stadium concessions. Earlier he had confessed that he was just emerging from an end-of-honeymoon bout of food poisoning, suffered at the hands of some unscrupulous Morrocan kebab tyrant. You’d never have known; in procuring his new ticket, Nick had downed a foot-long hot dog (even while admitting to a Ned Flandersesque unease about the thing), and he chased this with a bag of Cracker Jacks, a regular-sized hot dog, and a beer. Reminded me that on the day of my wedding two years ago I watched him down a Wisconsin triple threat of nachos, fried cheese curds and frozen custard within a 90-minute span; when asked how he was doing in the wake of this binge, he’d recounted the menu while moaning, “Of course I’m not OK.”

In any event, though Brian Bruney warmed up for the Yanks in the seventh, Joe Torre was content to let Clemens cruise, and he did so by throwing just 97 pitches through eight. He only struck out four hitters, but his ability to throw strikes and generate ground balls (13, versus seven flies) kept him well out of danger against the contact-happy Twins. Mariano Rivera came on in the ninth and though he allowed a pair of one-out singles, a nifty double play by Cairo, who got the force at third and then fired to first, wrapped things up. It was Clemens’ 350th win, a level not seen since Waren Spahn reached that milestone on September 29, 1963 in a game caught by some Brooklyn kid named Torre.

Victory and all, in the face of those sobering numbers, the Yanks face a dreadfully uphill climb just to win the Wild Card; for me, believing they’ll make it is like believing Little Timmy the Orphan’s whooping cough is going to go away without medication. But for one night, everything seemed right at Yankee Stadium, a delightful midsummer night spent among friends, downing beers and cheering victory. Here’s hoping they can keep the good times rolling.

Sobering Numbers

Yankees’ overall record to date:
37-41 (.474 winning percentage)

Record without their early June 14-3 hot streak:
23-38 (.377)

Record vs. AL East opponents:
8-17 (.320)

Record needed to match the Red Sox’s 99-win pace:
62-22 (.738)

Record needed to win 95 games, the same number as the last two AL Wild Cards:
58-26 (.690)

Number of times in baseball history that a team has won at least 58 of final 84 games:
56

Number of times that has happened since 1900:
35

Number of times that has happened since expansion era began in 1961:
14

Number of times that has happened since three-division play began in 1994:
6

Last Yankee team to accomplish this feat:
1961

Last team to win World Series after accomplishing this feat:
1979 Pirates

• • •

Weekend travels prevented me from my usual lengthy Prospectus Hit List. Instead I put together another Hit List Remix article examining various trends across leagues and divisions and versus last year’s performance and the 2007 PECOTA forecasts:

If you had the Dodgers as the team furthest ahead of this year’s projections, raise your hand. Bueller? Anyone? Not even this Dodger fan — hopeful but faithless, or perhaps the other way around — could have foreseen that, particularly in a season where Nomar Garciaparra and Rafael Furcal have combined for just two home runs (down from last year’s 35), where Juan Pierre has been even more fetid than expected, and where Jason Schmidt made almost no positive contribution before winding up on the operating table. On the other hand, the emergence of Russell Martin as possibly the league’s best catcher, and PECOTA-whooping first halves from Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, Takashi Saito, and Luis Gonzalez have helped make up much of that ground. A 17-8 record [in one-run games] founded on the league’s second-best bullpen [they’re now third] hasn’t hurt either. It will be interesting to see whether the Dodgers can sustain this level of play in the wake of their shifting Garciaparra to third to accommodate Loney, and Chad Billingsley into the rotation to cover for Schmidt.

The Dodgers are hardly the only team that’s surprising by this measure; the Tigers have outpaced PECOTA even with a bullpen that’s crumbling before Jim Leyland’s eyes, and three quarters of the AL West is significantly ahead of their projections. As are the Red Sox, even if they seem to have more disappointments (Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Manny Ramirez) than surprises (Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell). Worth noting: Daisuke Matsuzaka is three ERA points off his weighted mean projections. Bow to the deadly accurate PECOTA!

Marc Normandin will take this week’s Hit List, as I’ll be headed to Wyoming for my brother’s wedding. I’ll be back in my usual format there on July 13, but I won’t be off the grid completely.

Stick a Fork in the 2007 Yankees

“Kick in the idiot box and wait for the news in the history books/ It’s like junkies who hate their heroin.” — d. boon, lead singer of the Minutemen, “Shit You Hear at Parties”

I give up. I’m done. To hell with the 2007 Yankees, and while I’m at it, to hell with the managerial reign of Joe Torre. I’m not spending one more iota of energy fretting this sorry-assed team’s demise after Tuesday night’s debacle in Baltimore. Stick a fork in ‘em, they’re cooked.

I don’t like to lose perspective about one game — I’m usually the one counseling friends and readers to crawl off the ledge — but this one was emblematic. If Torre couldn’t be bothered to use a rested Mariano Rivera in the face of a sudden-death bottom of the ninth to thwart a potential three-game losing streak and 1-6 slide, then this team, this season, maybe even this regime is beyond redemption. Torre inexplicably chose to pitch Scott Proctor in that situation, and despite a terrific play to snare a pop-up bunt, Proctor walked two men, including Ramon Hernandez to force the winning run home with the bases loaded. That came moments after a wild pitch/near-HBP which should have done the job one way or the other.

Not calling Rivera’s number was an indefensible decision, even moreso because Torre’s made the same mistake before. Absent a note from the doctor or a visibly detached limb, there’s no reason Rivera shouldn’t have been in the game — he hadn’t pitched since Friday, so Torre’s explanation about the length of Mo’s previous outing doesn’t wash. The man’s thrown 1.2 innings, 20 pitches, in the past nine days! If the team is disguising a Rivera injury, what’s the point? The Yankees might as well put their heads between their legs and kiss their asses goodbye, because they’ll go nowhere with Proctor and/or Kyle Farnsworth closing things out.

Eleven games behind the Red Sox in the AL East, eight back in the Wild Card with six teams ahead of them, the Yanks can ill afford to fritter more games away. But they seemed content to do exactly that Tuesday night, so I’m officially now Beyond Caring. No more objects thrown at the TV, no more Tivoing their games so I can cling to a shred of hope. This season is done for the Yankees. Throw them on the pile of expensive toys that broke all too quickly. Go spend some time with your loved ones rather than tuning in for the daily rust and rot. You’ve got better things to do than to cheer on this trainwreck.

Spirit of ’77, Part III: The Dandy Dons

Dear Alex,

Oy, it feels like ages since you responded to my first volley, which gets at one of the drawbacks of a set as massive as this — particularly during baseball season, finding the time for a three-hour dig through the archives takes some doing.

Anyway, you did a great job of bringing the Yankees into the Series with your last post, so as we turn to the Game One disc, it’s time for me to bring the Dodgers into this. As I said before, they got out to a 17-3 start under new skipper Tommy Lasorda, who had taken over from Walter Alston after the latter’s 23 years at the helm. Lasorda was an organization man who’d reaped the benefit of managing in the Dodger chain during one of the great player development bounties in baseball history. He won five pennants in seven years in the minors, managing the longest-running infield of Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell, and Ron Cey at various stops, along with other notable future major leaguers. His 1970 Spokane team — Garvey, Lopes, and Russell, as well as league MVP Bobby Valentine, pitchers Charlie Hough and Doyle Alexander, catcher Bob Stinson, first baseman Tom Hutton and outfielders Bill Buckner, Tom Paciorek and Von Joshua — is considered one of the greatest in minor league history. Nine players on his ’77 club had played for him on their way up.

Lasorda had become Alston’s third-base coach in 1973, and he quickly proved a Technicolor contrast to the taciturn black-and-white skipper who’d been managing the Dodgers since 1954. He was a holler guy, basically, and a celebrity in the making, pals with Frank Sinatra and Don Rickles. On July 31, 1974 NBC famously miked Lasorda for a Game of the Week broadcast in which he predicted a home run from Cey; when it happened, he became the game’s highest-profile third base coach.

Even after he took the helm, Lasorda was viewed as more of a cheerleader than a tactician. That’s not an unfair description; his specialty was motivating his players, and he did so by trying to impart as much confidence in them as humanly possible. Famously, he got through to Reggie Smith, the rightfielder acquired from the Cardinals midway through the 1976 season. Smith’s reputation as talented but moody can be traced to the racism he experienced early in his career as a member of the Red Sox (in Shut Out, Howard Bryant would write, “Outside of [Celtics center] Bill Russell, no black player would endure a more pronounced conflict with Boston than Reggie Smith.”). He’d gotten along better in St. Louis, but when Lasorda told him he needed him, those were words that none of his previous managers had bothered to impart. Smith was effusive with praise for Lasorda: “He gave us a greater sense of being part of something, and we had to believe in ourselves because he never doubted us. He preached to us from day one that we were going to win it. In all my 15 years, I had never heard a manager say it so emphatically.” Smith responded with a .307-32-87 season in 1977, becoming part of the first quartet of 30-homer teammates in baseball history (Cey, Garvey, and Dusty Baker were the others) as well as pacing the Senior Circuit in On Base Percentage (.427).

The ’77 Dodgers went virtually wire to wire, spending just three days out of first place, all in the first week. They beat the two-time defending World Champion Reds by 10 games, clinching the division on September 20, and winding up the regular season at 98-64. Health was a huge factor; the Dodger starters missed just two turns all year; one through five, they made at least 31 starts apiece, with everybody topping 212 innings. That kind of staff durability is just unreal. Tommy John (20-7, 2.78 ERA) and Don Sutton (14-8, 3.18) led the way.

Perhaps flat because they’d clinched so early, the Dodgers dropped the first game of the League Championship Series to the Phillies, who were in the midst of a three-year run as NL East champs and had won 101 games in 1977 under Danny Ozark, the man whom Lasorda had replaced as third base coach (Ozark was part of the Dodger organization from 1947-1972). Russell made a pair of errors that led to four early unearned runs, chasing John in the fifth inning. Though Cey smacked a grand slam to tie the game in the seventh, the Phils scored two in the eighth off Elias Sosa. The Dodgers came back to tie the series the next night when Don Sutton tossed a complete-game nine-hitter.

That set up Game Three, which I wish had been included in this set, as it’s a crazy classic. The Dodgers scored a pair in the top of the second off Phillies starter Larry Christenson, but their inning ended when catcher Steve Yeager was thrown out at third base on a double by Dodger starter Burt Hooton. The Phils came back with three runs in the bottom of the inning; Hooton walked Christenson, Bake McBride, and Larry Bowa consecutively with the bases loaded, forcing in a run each time. Lasorda gave Hooton the hook, and it paid off. Rick Rhoden came out of the bullpen to get the dangerous Mike Schmidt to foul out to catcher to end the threat. Rhoden then went four more scoreless frames as the Dodgers chased Christenson in the fourth and tied the game

The score remained knotted at three until the bottom of the eighth, when the Phils netted two on a Richie Hebner double, a Garry Maddox single, and an error by Cey on a Bob Boone grounder. That set up a legendarily wild ninth where the Dodgers were down to their final out against ace reliever Gene Garber. Pinch-hitter Vic Davalillo, a 40-year-old who’d been plucked out of the Mexican League in mid-August, beat out a drag bunt — with two outs! Pinch-hitter Manny Mota, no spring chicken himself at 39, launched a fly ball in the vicinity of leftfielder Greg Luzinski (“the worst outfielder I have ever seen, bar none,” wrote Bill James a few years ago. My dad bought me a Luzinski glove when I was a kid, which explains a bit about my playing career). Luzinski could only trap the ball after Mota’s drive hit the wall; his relay sailed past second baseman Ted Sizemore, allowing Davalillo to score. Lopes then hit a ball that apparently hit a seam in the turf and ricocheted off Schmidt’s knee. Bowa recovered the carom and threw to first “in a dead heat with the flying Lopes,” as the New York Times‘ Joe Durso wrote, while Mota broke for home with the tying run. Ump Bruce Froemming called Lopes safe; “the Phillies were shocked, outraged, and tied,” wrote Durso. Garber tried to pick off Lopes, but threw wildly, allowing the speedster to take second, and then Russell brought him home with a single. Mike Garman worked through Bowa, Schmidt, Luzinksi (whom he hit) and Hebner to close out the game and give the Dodgers a series lead.

The Phillies came back with ace Steve Carlton — who’d gone 23-10 on his way to the second of four Cy Young awards — versus John in the fourth game. Dusty Baker clubbed a two-run homer in the second, and sparked a two-run rally in the fifth with a leadoff walk. Carlton took an early exit when he walked Cey to open the sixth, while John went the distance to give the Dodgers the pennant. Baker, who’d gone 5-for-14 with a double, two homers and eight RBI, won the LCS MVP award.

So that takes the Dodgers into the World Series, where we pick up the visuals. This was the ninth time they would meet the Yankees in the Fall Classic, but the first since their four-game sweep in 1963. What stands out in retrospect is the contrast between the two teams. The Dodgers were largely homegrown and at least during the initial stages of Lasorda’s reign, had reputation for harmony, or more accurately, an outward facade of harmony. The Yankees were the first team to succeed via free agency, adding Catfish Hunter prior to the 1976 season and Reggie Jackson and Don Gullett prior to 1977, and of course they were anything but harmonious.

Gullett got the Game One call for the Yankees. Even at 26, he was already a seasoned vet of the postseason, having pitched for the Reds in four World Series, including the previous year’s defeat of the Yanks. But the signs of Gullett’s demise were already apparent. The broadcast crew — Keith Jackson on the play-by-play, Howard Cosell on the color commentary, and Tom Seaver as the jocko analyst — commented on his problems with shoulder soreness; Gullett had lasted just two innings during his LCS start. Here he worked his way into trouble early, walking Lopes to lead of the game and then surrendering a triple to the number two hitter, Russell, who tagged a ball into deep left-center, about 410 feet. That would be a home run today, but the dimensions of Yankee Stadium post-renovation were 312 down the leftfield line, 430 to left-center, 417 to center, 385 to right-center, and 310 down the rightfield line. Billy Martin popped out of the dugout and Dick Tidrow began warming up.

As to the broadcasters, you called them the worst ever in one of your comments. That’s overstating the case a bit; Jackson, who was the game’s preeminent college football voice, and Cosell, better known for his work on Monday Night Football, were simply out of their element covering baseball. The former had no idea what to do with numbers; when the switch-hitting Smith was batting, he’d cite the guy’s homer and RBI splits with no sense of proportion as to his batting average or number of at-bats. The latter’s bombast was a poor match for the sport (“Dusty Baker is one of the most dramatic figures in all of baseball”?) and the received wisdom he spigoted was painfully apparent. I have a ton of affection for both men’s work calling football games — my brother and I started doing Cosell imitations around the time we became conscious of TV sports — but they’re completely miscast here. As for Seaver, even 30 years later I can’t stand the sound of his voice, which manages to be both nasal and piercing enough to cut tin.

Anyway, the Dodgers picked up Russell’s run on a sacrifice fly by Cey. Cosell let out a groaner when he introduced the Dodger third baseman: “They call him the penguin, he walks like a duck.” What the? But Gullett managed to escape the inning despite issuing three walks and the triple, aided by Smith getting caught in a rundown on an attempted steal.

Getting the start for the Dodgers was Don Sutton, the team’s link back to the days of Koufax and Drysdale. He was their big game starter; up to that point Sutton had compiled a 4-0 record and a 1.39 ERA in five postseason starts. Permit me to gush for a minute here, as the guy was a personal favorite of mine. Goofy frizzy hair and all, he was simply one of the most unheralded of his day. He stuck around to win 324 games and strike out 3,574 hitters, a figure that ranked fourth at the time he retired and is still seventh two decades later. But since he never a Cy Young award and had only one 20-win season — a byproduct of the Dodgers shifting to the five-man rotation well ahead of the curve — in an era where the likes of Seaver, Carlton, Perry and Fergie Jenkins dominated in the NL, he gets short shrift.

Sutton was eminently adaptable, with a five-pitch arsenal that included one of the game’s great curveballs, a knuckle-curve that draws a lot of comparisons to Mike Mussina. He was also reputed to dabble in the black art of scuffing a baseball, and he relished the allegations. There’s a story that when he met Perry, the spitballer offered him a tube of Vaseline, and Sutton handed him a sheet of sandpaper. “I’d wear a toolbelt out there if they’d let me,” he told Tom Boswell.

He was still a workhorse at this point in his career, but as he aged he understood the changing dynamic that made him a six-inning pitcher. He cashed in via free agency, signing with the Astros after the 1980 season — friction with Lasorda and Garvey played a part, but the Dodgers were idiots for letting him go — and later famously exclaimed, “I’m the most loyal player money can buy.” He’s reputed to have never missed a turn or spend time on the DL durig his 23 year career, but both of those are myths; he missed the 1981 postseason after sustaining a broken kneecap when a Jerry Reuss pitch got away from him (he wound up having surgery to insert two screws), and he went on the DL with a sprained elbow in 1988, the 23rd and final year of his career.

Sutton gave up a run in the first — three straight two-out singles, with Chris Chambliss delivering Thurman Munson home — but that aside, he pretty much cruised through to the sixth. But just moments after Garvey was thrown out at home on a single by centerfielder Glenn Burke, Willie Randolph jacked a solo homer to shallow leftfield to lead off the bottom of the frame.

It’s weird and more than a little sad to see Burke, a guy whom I know plenty about but have no memory of as a player. A light-hitting speedster who really never got it together in the majors, he’s remembered for two reasons. First and foremost he was gay, a fact that was acknowledged only after his career was over. I actually remember reading the Inside Sports article that outed him; I rarely got ahold of that magazine but for some reason I scored that particular copy when we were flying somewhere. Apparently the Dodger brass had its suspicions about Burke because he was close with Lasorda’s flamboyantly gay son (sadly, both of them would die of AIDS in the ’90s). By the middle of the 1978 season, Burke would be traded to the A’s, and he’d be out of baseball before 1981 due to a knee injury and drug problems. The really shitty thing about his outing, I’ve learned in researching this, was that it was his long-term boyfriend, Michael J. Smith, who wrote the Inside Sports piece without disclosure that they were partners.

Second, and on a much lighter note, Burke reputedly invented the high-five when he greeted Baker at home plate after the latter’s 30th homer. Moments later, Baker returned the favor when Burke followed with his first major-league homer. That’s pretty cool, and it was something of a relief to find Retrosheet corroborating the order of events if not the genesis of the predominant sports gesture of the past 30 years.

Anyway, Lasorda kept Sutton in after yielding the tying run, even let him bat for himself in the top of the seventh, and he drew a walk. He dodged trouble in the bottom of the frame when Lou Piniella lashed a single to right-center and was gunned down by Smith trying to take second. Bucky Dent followed with a chopper to Cey, whose throw to Garvey pulled him off the bag, safe for a single. The play prompted an aside from Cosell about the rivalry between the two Dodger infielders, and Cey’s outspokenness regarding Garvey’s image-consciousness. Fissures in the facade of harmony.

Of course, it would be Sutton and Garvey between whom the fur really flew the next summer, but I’ll let you hit that note, Alex. And since I’ve more than gone past my pitch count here, this seems as good a point as any to hand the ball over to you.

Get ‘em…

j

Friday’s Child

Another week, another Hit List, this one completed under the influence of my wife’s 103-degree fever, Sammy Sosa’s 600th home run, a suspicious-looking early-morning handoff of a laptop at Port Authority, and my editor Christina Kahrl’s impending move to Chicago. As such, it didn’t go up until late Friday afternoon and missed inclusion in BP’s daily newsletter, but it’s there in all it’s linkalicious glory.

“Hurting Hurlers” is this week’s title, and with injuries to Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Jason Schmidt, John Lackey, Dontrelle Willis, Brad Lidge, Anibal Sanchez, A.J. Burnett, and Ian Snell, there was certainly no shortage of high-profile ones. Here’s what I had to say about Schmidt, the ninth-ranked Dodgers’ $47 million investment:

Another troubling outing prompts Jason Schmidt to go under the knife; he’s got the Deluxe Torn Labrum Platter with all the trimmings, so forward his mail to Spring Training 2008. Chad Billingsley takes his spot in the rotation, and while he’s much improved over his rookie season, the move may upset the balance of the league’s second-best bullpen (not that I’m advocating more Brett Tomko or Mark Hendrickson). Meanwhile, hitting coach Eddie Murray takes the fall for an underperforming offense that’s 11th in EqA at a subpar .253, but he didn’t sign Juan Pierre (.240), Nomar Garciaparra (.237), or Rafael Furcal (.254) to those big deals.

One more note on the Dodgers: yesterday’s L.A. Times featured a surprisingly rational column from Bill Plaschke, in which my nemesis tells GM Ned Colletti not to panic over the Schmidt injury by trading exciting youngsters such as James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, and Andre Ethier. Shocking to find the two of us on the same page for once.

Turning to the Yankees, even after being swept in Colorado, they’re ranked seventh; I addressed their first base situation in my entry:

Mile High Drub: fresh off a Subway Series win that caps a 14-3 run, the Yankees are swept in Colorado while being held to just five runs in a series more memorable for the 2007 first base debuts of Jorge Posada and Johnny Damon. As injured Jason Giambi cuts a deal to meet with Grand Inquisitor George “Torquemada” Mitchell, the picture at that position appears dire. Yankee first-sackers have hit .270/.336/.416, well below the league average (.274/.352/.452). With Damon possibly DL-bound, Posada needed behind the plate to minimize the presence of .116-hitting Wil Nieves, Josh Phelps DFA’d in favor of Andy Phillips, and a surprisingly torrid Miguel Cairo still representing what Joe Sheehan rightly terms “baseball malpractice,” it’s clear somebody’s license to assemble a roster may have expired.

My colleague Derek Jacques’ linked parody of the Monty Python Flying Circus “Spanish Inquisition” sketch is a must-read. Bring me the comfy chair!

It certainly felt like a particularly interesting week, or at least one where I felt I had plenty more to say than would fit in a typical Hit List entry. A few asides:

• I believe I set a personal record on the Rangers’ entry, which discussed Sosa’s home run as well some foolishness by owner Tom Hicks and the grim track record of boy wonder GM Jon Daniels. Lone Star Ball‘s Adam Morris challenged me on my assertion that the Rangers were “smoked” (to use my word) on the John Danks/Brandon McCarthy and Francisco Cordero/Carlos Lee trades. While I agree they’ve got longer time horizons than the infamous Padres deal (Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge for Akinori Otsuka, Adam Eaton and a minor leaguer) or the Alfonso Soriano/Brad Wilkerson trade — both of which would make a Texas pitmaster jealous — they’re certainly short-term losses. Throwing out reliever Nick Masset and his 7.16 ERA, Danks has been much more usable than McCarthy, and it may take years to evaluate whether the first-round pick the Rangers received as compensation for Lee’s departure was worth the trouble. In the meantime, I’ve yet to be impressed by Daniels, I don’t think there’s much merit to his extension, and if I’m a Rangers fan I’m worried he comes back with something like Jay Payton, Danys Baez, Steve Trachsel and Billy Ripken’s unwashed laundry for Mark Teixeira, or Jason Grilli for Eric Gagne even up.

• Lest I stretch the Orioles entry to the extreme, I decided to let Miguel Tejada’s injury go. Then again, all I really had to say about that was a Nelson Muntz-ian “Ha-ha!” I find Tejada to be one of the game’s most disappointing stars. The guy’s stats against the Yankees the past few years are actually impressive — .312/.357/.545 in 2004, .373/.407/.547 in 2005, .419/.451/.514 in 2006 — but the images of him loafing down to first base or making a lazy-ass defensive play are so indelible that they color my whole opinion of him. And let’s face it, I’m still wary of him after that 2003 Division Series baserunning blunder (as I am of Eric Byrnes, but that’s a story for another day), and I’m no fan of consecutive game streaks, particularly when they’re artificially extended as Tejada’s was the other night. As for Joe Girardi turning down the managerial reins, this proves he’s not stupid; Andy MacPhail’s arrival or no, the O’s haven’t been worth a damn in a decade, and Girardi will have better options at his disposal — perhaps even the Cubs, White Sox, or Yankees — this winter.

• Speaking of the White Sox, one of my colleagues got me laughing yesterday in response to my entry. “I still think your research on the White Sox bullpen is wrong — those numbers look WAY better than what I’ve seen seeing. If you asked me to guess the bullpen-Jenks ERA in the last month, I would have said somewhere in the thousands.” Oh, SNAP! I had the bullpen ERA besides Jenks at 8.70, with a 2.28 WHIP, which is pretty ugly, but then I haven’t been suffering through the daily litany like this.

• Also, I pulled up short in discussing the Milton Bradley situation; Bradley was designated for assignment by Oakland on Thursday, a surprising move even given his three trips to the DL this year and the backstory about his impatience with the timing of his activation. For whatever it’s worth, if he’s had problems in Oakland, they’ve been kept under much tighter wraps than in L.A., which makes the move all the more surprising. From a roster standpoint, various reports have noted that the A’s have Nick Swisher, Travis Buck, Mark Kotsay, Shannon Stewart, Bobby Kielty, and Chris Snelling in various states of readiness; as a GM or a manager, I’d take Bradley, warts and all, over all of those guys except the first two unless the guy was missing a leg or beating his wife again. Given that the A’s looked ready to settle for the Royals’ Leo Nunez — a 23-year-old righty reliever with a career ERA of 6.99, a K rate below 5.0, and a bleak PECOTA outlook — in a trade that was scotched by an apparent oblique injury to Bradley, I have to think there’s far more dirt under this rug than is being discussed.

As I said, it was an interesting week.

Sammy Sosa, 600, and the Hall of Fame [BP Unfiltered]

Rockin’ the blockquote:

Last night, Sammy Sosa hit his 600th home run, becoming just the fifth player in baseball history to do so. Ironically, he hit it against the Chicago Cubs, the team for whom he walloped 545 of those homers, including 243 over a four-year span. While that barrage arguably made him the game’s most popular player at the time, it has since raised numerous eyebrows as BALCO and other steroid scandals have come to light. Most famously, Sports Illustrated‘s Rick Reilly smugly challenged Sosa to pee in a cup to prove his innocence; when Sosa refused, Reilly wrote a have-you-stopped-beating-your-wife column about it. Sosa, for his part, made a lackluster showing at the 2005 Congressional Steroid Circus, and many other writers treated his 2006 quasi-retirement as a de facto admission of guilt, working steroids into their narrative of his departure.

For all of the innuendo surrounding Sosa, there’s no smoking gun, and far less circumstantial evidence surrounding him than his two other contemporaries who crossed the 61-homer Maris threshold, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds (corked bats, on the other hand…). Earlier this year, reports surfaced via a leak that the dubious Mitchell Investigation had called for Sosa’s medical records; Mitchell refused comment as to any justification for doing so. In most quarters, that’s called a smear.

But enough about steroids for the moment. Multiple readers have asked me about Sosa’s JAWS case, so here goes. Coming into the year (working with January 2007 set again), Sosa had 103.1 career WARP3 and a seven-year peak total of 64.3, good for 83.7 JAWS. The average Hall of Fame rightfielder (including freshly-elected Tony Gwynn) scores 119.8/65.5/92.7, leaving Sosa significantly short on the career front, a consequence of him ceasing productivity after his Age 35 season. ESPN’s front page trumpets his 30-homer/131-RBI pace, but 12 homers into his comeback, Sosa’s hitting just .242/.297/.458, good for 0.7 WARP1, and a projection of 2.3 WARP3. In other words, he’s not helping his cause beyond padding his career totals and distracting the focus away from the Rangers’ myriad other problems.

JAWS table and more after the jump.

Yo, Baby!

I came off the bench to pinch-hit for one of my Baseball Prospectus colleagues yesterday. The fruits of my labors can be found in my latest New York Sun piece, about the fall of the Cardinals, the recovery of the Brewers, and some bad behavior and worse spending by the Cubs. A quick taste:

It didn’t take genius to foresee the collapse of the World Champion Cardinals. With a poorly-executed off-season plan and a nearly barren farm system, general manager Walt Jocketty did little to upgrade a club that limped into last year’s playoffs with an 83–78 record before their unlikely title run. With ace Chris Carpenter sidelined by bone spurs in his elbow since Opening Day, plus sluggers Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen all off to slow starts, it’s been clear for weeks that a repeat performance just isn’t in the Cards.

Filling the power vacuum in the NL Central so far have been the upstart Brewers. Storming out to a 24–10 record behind the potent 1-2 punch of first baseman Prince Fielder and shortstop J.J. Hardy, the Brewers opened up a 6.5-game lead on the retooled Cubs before the latter’s irascible new manager, Lou Piniella, had earned his first ejection. Even when gravity brought the Brewers back to earth — they lost 19 of their next 28 games — neither the Cubs nor any other Central team seized the initiative; Milwaukee’s lead never dwindled below 4.5 games.

That lead is back up to seven games, and if you were in the vicinity of Miller Park Monday night, you may have heard the window of opportunity slam shut on the rest of the division. Yovani Gallardo, considered one of the top 20 prospects in the minors by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America, put together an impressive major league debut, limiting the Giants to four hits and three runs over 6.1 innings. Rickie Weeks doubled twice in his return from the disabled list, and Fielder socked his NL-best 26th homer to give the Brewers their sixth win in eight games.

That ought to make the in-laws happy. I didn’t see more than brief highlights of Gallardo’s start, but by all accounts he’s the real deal. After leading the minor leagues with 188 strikeouts in 155 innings last year, he had put up a 2.90 ERA with a 110/28 K/BB ratio in 77.2 innings at Triple-A Nashville before his recall. My BP colleague Kevin Goldstein ranked him 14th in his Top 100 Prospects list, while Baseball America had him 16th. Here’s Goldstein’s tale of the tape from his Top 10 Brewer prospects piece last December:

Yovani Gallardo, rhp
DOB: 2/27/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 2nd round, 2004, Texas HS
What He Did In 2006: 2.09 ERA at High A (77.2-54-23-103), 1.63 ERA at AA (77.1-50-28-85)
The Good: Very good stuff plus excellent command equals outstanding pitching prospect. Pitches off a heavy 91-93 mph fastball that touches 96, as well as two plus breaking pitches – a hard-sweeping slider and a downer curveball. Throws strikes and has advanced polish well beyond his years.
The Bad: Changeup is an average pitch, but that’s nitpicking. Body doesn’t offer the same projection as other top pitching prospects. That’s nitpicking as well.
The Irrelevant: Are groundball ratios fluky? Gallardo was nearly 2 to 1 (83-43) in the Florida State League, yet gave up more flyballs (79) than grounders (61) at Double-A.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 2 starter and occasional All-Star.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Gallardo will turn 21 in Spring Training, yet he’s ready for Triple-A, and the Brewers don’t think he’ll need a full season there in preparation for the big leagues.

The bottom line is that Brewers fans have every reason to be as excited about him as Yankee fans are about Philip Hughes, with the bonus that Gallardo’s actually healthy, and his team is in first place. Can’t beat that with a baseball bat.

• • •

With the next installment of our Spirit of ’77 series stuck in the pipeline, my partner in correspondence Alex Belth pitched in with his poignant Bombers Broadside 2007 memoir, “Dad, Reggie and Me.” You don’t need me to tell you it’s a must-read.

Vin Santo

Buried within his daily column, Salon’s King Kaufman takes note of a wonderful moment on Friday night when Dodger announcer Vin Scully let a ninth-inning confrontation between Dodger closer Takashi Saito and Angel slugger Vlad Guerrero speak for itself. The Golden Throat of baseball history told his listeners, “Boy, when you get a matchup like this, Guerrero and Saito, I think the best thing to do is shut up. Just, uh, you concentrate, and I’m gonna have some fun myself.”

Watching the scene myself on Friday night, I thought back to Scully’s artful handling of Nomar Garciaparra’s game-winning home run in the now-legendary 4+1 game:

Leftfielder Roberts had already turned back to face the plate as the ball went over the wall as pandemonium broke out both in Dodger Stadium and in my own private viewing box; somehow I managed to keep from waking my wife. The Dodgers dogpiled at home plate as Scully, with admirable restraint, let the celebratory scene do the talking.

Two minutes later, the master of the mic remarked enthusiastically, “I forgot to tell you: the Dodgers are in first place!” Another minute of crowd shots and stadium noise passed, un-Scullyed, before he finally signed off: “I think we’ve said enough from up here. Once again, the final score in 10 innings — believe it or not — Dodgers 11, Padres 10.”

I remember showing that clip to Alex Belth a few months back, just after he’d commented that there wasn’t anything particularly memorable about Scully’s calls during the four consecutive homers that had transpired the previous inning. Alex left my home whistling a different tune.

Once again, thanks to Vin Scully for giving the gift of his understated style.