Big Unit in a class by himself

Here’s an interesting piece on where Randy Johnson fits in among today’s elite pitchers. What’s more interesting than the result, to me, is the methodology, because it’s a useful one to compare any group of pitchers.

Today we hear a lot of talk about how great Pedro Martinez is. And it’s true–the man is a great pitcher, and his dominance relative to the conditions of the time is virtually unprecedented. His ERA is less than half of the league’s ERA. Last year he won the ERA title by almost two whole runs (Pedro 1.74, Roger Clemens 3.70)!

But what’s missing from that analysis is some perspective on how valuable Pedro is compared to pitchers from other eras who put up similar numbers (with respect to W-L and ERA), but who may not have been as dominant relative to the league. Sandy Koufax comes to mind, as does Lefty Grove. What they have on Pedro is that they were starting more games (in a four-man rotation rather than five), completing more games (as was the style at the time), and racking up significantly more innings.

The reason this is significant is that in weighing the value of 225 innings of Pedro against 300 innings of Koufax, you’re left with the fact that some other pitcher not named Pedro Martinez has to cover those other 75 innings, and he’s not going to be as good. And that needs to be considered if we’re putting these pitchers in their proper contexts.

Anyway, this article focuses on comparing Randy Johnson to Sandy Koufax using a measure called Wins Above Replacement. A replacement-level pitcher, here, is one who gives up 20 percent more runs than the league average. In other words, a below-average pitcher. As great as Johnson is, he doesn’t measure up to Koufax, which is no embarassment. But the article places him 3rd among active leaders in WAR, behind Clemens and Greg Maddux, but ahead of Tom Glavine and Kevin Brown. Pedro is tied for sixth, but climbing fast.

What I would like to see is a comparison between Martinez, Koufax, Grove, and perhaps a few other pitchers from other eras who sustained periods of dominance along the lines of those three (Mathewson? Maddux? Carlton?). If I had a spreadsheet I’d run it myself, and in time I probably will. For all I know, somebody over at the Baseball Prospectus has already done the work. I’ll keep an eye out.