Uuuugh!

The Yankees’ tentative deal with the Montreal Expos for reliever Ugueth Urbina has fallen through, based upon the failure both of Urbina and Yankees prospect Brandon Knight to pass physical exams.

The deal would have brought the Yankees some much-needed relief help, at the expense of a pitching prospect they’ve already given up on once (Knight) and an infielder only a year-and-a-half removed from breaking a bone in his neck (D’Angelo Jiminez). Jimenez is a legitimate prospect, with better plate discipline than current Yankee rookie Alfonso Soriano but less speed. Had he not been injured, in a car accident, “The Dangler” (as a friend of mine calls him) would have started the 2000 season on the Yankee roster.

It’s tough to get too heartbroken about the deal falling through. Urbina was once a top closer in the National League, but he’s recovering from two elbow surgeries for bone chips, has performed unspectacularly (0-1, 4.45 ERA, 9 saves), and still can’t pitch back-to-back days. Additionally, his agent reported that Urbina would be less than thrilled with accepting a setup role (excuse us, Oogie, but they don’t call it the World Series just so they can invite Canada). Help like that isn’t too tough to live without.

It’s worth noting that Urbina’s salary of $4.2 million is considerably more than the Yankees would have had to pay Jeff Nelson ($3 mil). Nelson, the Yanks’ top right-handed setup man the past three seasons, signed with Seattle as a free agent after a fine season which nevertheless featured a series of high-profile spats (or what passes for them in today’s Bronx Petting Zoo) with Joe Torre and George Steinbrenner. If the balance of power in a league can swing around a setup man, this may be the case; Nelson has bolstered an already strong Seattle bullpen on a team whose torrid start threatens the 1998 Yankees pace, while the Yankees have overused Mike Stanton and Mariano Rivera while watching a parade of lesser lights (Carlos “Extra Crispy” Almanzar, Todd Williams, and a less-than-full-strength Ramiro Mendoza) flop in the righty setup role.

This article reports that the Yanks are trying to move 1B Tino Martinez, who is almost literally on the eve of becoming a 10-5 player and thus able to veto a trade. Martinez is in the midst of a 15-for-103 slump, but the market for underproducing 1Bs isn’t too robust these days, and Nick Johnson, Tino’s heir apparent, still needs some AAA seasoning.

So it’s back to the drawing board for Brian Cashman and company. Hey Brian, call Billy Beane about Jim Mecir, and while you’re at it, ask about Jason Giambi…

Roger Clemens

With Clemens’ victory over Detroit, he now leads the league in victories, with nine. And since July 2 of last season, when he was activated from the disabled list, Clemens is 18-3. I can’t stand Mr.-Texas-vs.-Oklahoma-Every-Fifth-Day, but there’s no denying he’s getting the job done. In a season where the blueprints for a dream rotation are all but crumpled in the corner waste basket, Clemens is the difference between the current Yankee model and a .500 ballclub. He’s gutted out a fair number of wins—three of his nine victories and seven of his 14 starts don’t qualify as Quality Starts (three or fewer runs in six or more innings).

The ability to win without one’s best stuff is the mark of a great pitcher. Clemens, much as I dislike him, is pitching like one. He’s the winningest pitcher on my favorite team, and on my first-place ESPN Fantasy League team. (Sigh) I guess I’m going to have to learn to live with him.

Allan Roth & Branch Rickey

I was a preteen baseball stat-head. I actually read the backs of baseball cards, and learned to calculate batting averages before the concepts of fractions or long division were introduced in school. I scored the games I watched on TV, and God help me, I kept stats on simulation games that I played, from a dice game I invented to a computer game into which I programmed entire leagues.

My obsession with baseball statistics was encouraged by my father, who taught me how to decipher the morning box scores. His own active interest didn’t go much beyond that, but several times, he mentioned the name of Allan Roth, the Dodgers team statistician (a definition of dream job which still falls just a notch below “major league ballplayer”). I didn’t know much beyond the name, though.

As it turns out, Roth is credited with being the first modern baseball analyst. Roth was hired by Branch Rickey, the general manager of the Dodgers, in 1947. Rickey, always a good step ahead of the curve, had already invented the modern farm system and signed the ballplayer who broke the color barrier, Jackie Robinson. Rickey and Roth broke the ground for the analysis of baseball statistics. They invented the On Base Percentage and devised systems of rating ballplayers. Rickey used those findings to build his next team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who won a championship with the foundation he laid.

But back to Roth. He kept meticulous pitch logs. He tracked individual hitters against each pitcher—a recent book recounts how Roth just shook his head sadly when asked, as Dodgers pitcher Ralph Branca entered the game, about his matchup against the Giants’next batter, Bobby Thomson, one fateful October day. He presented his data to ballplayers as a means of improving the team. Roth is credited with helping Sandy Koufax change his style of pitching to left-handers by altering his curve ball.

Here is a great piece by Branch Rickey, reprinted from Life Magazine in 1954, which demonstrates the findings of Rickey and Roth, including their formulas for On Base Average, Extra Base Power (slugging percentage minus batting average), a clutch factor (percentage of runners scored) and a good look at pitching stats on a per-nine-inning basis. Rickey outlines his blueprint for building his Pittsburgh team; concluding their ability to get on base is sufficient, he pledges to focus on raising their clutch factor through power hitting. The results may seem elementary, in light of what the world of baseball statistics has taught us, But in a day when baseball executives such as Oakland’s Billy Beane are celebrated for coming around to a new way of thinking based upon the analysis of baseball stats, it is illuminating to find one of the game’s all-time trailblazers led the way once again. [A good analysis of the Rickey article, written by Baseball Prospectus‘s Keith Woolner a few years back, is here.]

Here is a great glossary on the definitions of baseball statistics. I’ll add this to my links page when I get a chance.

Falling Pitch Counts

The relationship between a pitcher’s workload and his tendency toward injury is perhaps the most controversial area of inquiry among those who study baseball statistics. The studies haven’t proven much, but lots of blood has been spilled among researchers over the matter. The argument has been rather impassioned, primarily because of what’s at stake: protecting young pitching arms from overuse and injury.

The prevailing school of thought is that throwing beyond a certain threshold in a single game increases the risk of injury. A study published in Baseball Prospectus 2001 and cited by Don Malcolm in this Baseball Primer piece suggests that above 122 pitches, there is a “moderate risk”. The link between correlation and causation seems to be the bone of contention. I’m in no position to summarize the arguments here, being a late-comer to the party. But the anecdotal evidence, especially with regards to young pitchers and repeated abuse, is compelling.

Pitcher workloads, based on number of pitches per game and innings pitched per season, have been in decline for a long, long time. The rise of the relief specialist and the switch from a four-man to a five-man rotation are the two biggest factors in this trend, which results in fewer complete games and fewer innings pitched among starters. It used to be that a superstar starter completed more than half of his starts; today, even pitchers such as Pedro Martinez rarely do. And when a pitcher of his magnitude does, it’s generally when he’s pitched a relatively economical game.

This piece by Don Malcolm at Baseball Primer suggests that managers and other baseball folks have been taking the research that’s been done in the field over the past decade or so to heart. Malcolm compares a handful of recent seasons with regards to the distribution of games of 100+, 110+, 120+ and 130+ pitches. The results indicate a steady downturn in the number of high pitch count (120+) games. In 1988, according to Malcolm’s numbers, around 20% of all games fell into this category. By 1998, it was below 14%, and last season around 11%.

Malcolm also compares this season’s data with the first ten weeks of the other seasons he’s examining. Early in the season, pitch counts tend to be lower; managers don’t extend their pitchers to the max as often. This season, high pitch counts make up just 5.7% of all games, compared with around 10% during the same portion of last season, and over 15% in 1988. Malcolm suggests that the redefined strike zone may have something to do with this dramatic decrease, and illustrates a similar one year abberation from an earlier strike-zone change season—in this case, 1963.

The Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers employed a statistician named Allan Roth from 1947 to 1964. Roth is considered to be one of the titans of baseball statistics. You’ve heard of On Base Percentage? That’s his. Roth kept track of batter vs. pitcher breakdowns and is credited with helping Sandy Koufax to change his style of pitching based on his data. Way ahead of his time, Roth kept meticulous pitch logs of Dodgers games. More on him another time. Anyway, Malcolm summarizes Roth’s data from the 1962-1964 seasons, and notes a dramatic dip in the 1963 season, when the strike zone was changed. High pitch count games went from 33% to about 26% and then back up to 34% during these three seasons (note how much higher these rates are than current ones). Malcolm proposes that this season may present a similar aberration.

Whether it is or not, there’s no denying that pitch counts are definitely falling. The mere frequency of the phrase “pitch counts” on the lips of managers, players, agents, and even the mainstream baseball media shows that somebody has been paying attention. Somewhere amid the considerable amount of data is an idea whose time may have come.

The Best Baseball Nicknames

ESPN has been running a feature on the best nicknames in the major professional sports. The baseball one was mostly a hodge-podge of the obvious (“the Babe,” “Hammerin’ Hank,” “The Spendid Splinter”). Over at Baseball Primer, folks have offered up some more obscure and inspired choices.

I thought about doing a list myself, but never got around to it. But I awoke in the middle of the night with the name Lou “The Nervous Greek” Skizas stuck in my mind—nobody else had mentioned him, so I decided it was time to put together my own list. Not all of these are players I actually saw, but some of them, once absorbed from the Baseball Encyclopedia or another source, are unforgettable.

“Oil Can”—Dennis Boyd (1982-1991)

“Three-Finger”—Mordecai Brown (1903-1916)

“Downtown”—Ollie Brown (1965-1977)

“The Louisville Slugger”—Pete Browning (1882-1894)

“The Penguin”—Ron Cey (1971-1987)

“Death to Flying Things”—Bob Ferguson (1876-1884)

“Mudcat”—Jim Grant (1958-1971)

“El Guapo”—Rich Garces (1990-present)

“Eye Chart”—Doug Gwosdz (1981-1984)

“The Human Rain Delay”—Mike Hargrove (1974-1985, manager 1991-present)

“The Mad Hungarian”—Al Hrabosky (1970-1982)

“Mr. October”—Reggie Jackson (1967-1987)

“Penitentiary Face”—Jeffrey Leonard (1977-1990)

“The Barber”—Sal Maglie (1945-1958)

“The Wild Horse of the Osage”—John “Pepper” Martin (1928-1944)

“The Crime Dog”—Fred McGriff (1986-present)

“Losing Pitcher”—Hugh Mulcahy (1935-1947)

“Stan the Man”—Stan Musial (1941-1963)

“The Only Nolan”—Edward Sylvester Nolan (1878-1885)

“The Nervous Greek”—Lou Skizas (1956-1959)

“The Human Mosquito”—Jimmy Slagle (1899-1908)

“Stan the Man Unusual”—Don Stanhouse (1972-1982)

“Jigger”—Arnold Statz (1919-1928)

“Le Grand Orange”—Daniel “Rusty” Staub (1963-1985)

“Chicken”—Fred Stanley (1969-1982)

“The Old Professor—Charles “Casey” Stengel (1912-1925, manager 1934-1965)

“Doctor Strangeglove”—Dick Stuart (1958-1969)

“Sloppy”—Hollis Thurston (1923-1933)

“The Hat”—Harry Walker (1940-1955, manager 1965-1972)

“Big Poison”—Paul Waner (1926-1945) and

“Little Poison”—Lloyd Waner (1927-1945)

“No Neck”—Walt Williams (1964-1975)

Welcome to Baseball Hell

The Texas Rangers find themselves further out of first place at this point in the season than any team in the history of baseball, except the 1953 Detroit Tigers. The Rangers’ record is a putrid 23-43, while the Seattle Mariners are 52-14. The cosmic beauty of this, of course, is that Alex Rodriguez shunned the Mariners in the offseason to sign a record-setting $252 million contract with the Rangers.

Pay-Rod isn’t the reason the Rangers are struggling; in fact he’s off to a fine start (.320, 19 HR, 57 RBI). Texas’ woes can be summarized in three words: pitching, pitching, pitching. A staff ERA of 6.01, starting pitchers whose ERAs resemble Boeing airplanes, and a leaky bullpen illustrate the folly of Texas owner Tom Hicks’ spending plan. The Rangers’ offseason signings included graybeards such as Ken Caminiti, Andres Galarraga and Randy Velarde. Only Velarde has produced, but he’s been laid up with a hamstring injury.

Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell, in an excellent column a few weeks ago, opined that the Rangers struggles may have done the game a favor. The lesson is that nobody is worth the kind of money Rodriguez is making, no one player is bigger than a team when it comes to fiscal sanity.

Schadenfreude is the German word for “pleasure derived from the misfortune of others.” Mariners fans, the rest of baseball is sharing that warm feeling with you right now.

They’re Going to Whack Him at the All-Star Game

This bit of news is so surreal, I can only think it’s a set-up for a mob hit. Tony Muser, manager of the hapless Kansas City Royals, has been selected by Joe Torre to be one of the American League’s coaches for the All-Star Game.

The Royals currently own a 25-40 record, third-worst in the American League. The two managers whose teams have done worse (Texas’ Johnny Oates, and Tampa Bay’s Larry Rothchild) are already toast. What’s more, Muser is hardly a Felipe Alou type of manager, somebody who draws praise from his peers despite his teams’ shortcomings. His career winning percentage in almost four years of managing the Royals is .428.

He is a frequent target of ESPN columnist Rob Neyer, who follows the Royals more than any sane man ought to. Writing about Muser’s shortcomings back in April, Neyer noted that several good young hitters have developed on his watch, but that Muser’s handling of the pitching was the real problem. “If Tony Muser and I co-managed a Rotisserie team, I would send him out for cold beverages when it came time to bid on pitchers,” wrote Neyer at the time. The results (13th in the league in ERA in ’98, 14th in ’99, 13th in 2000 and a robust 12th as I write this) speak for themselves. But wait, there’s more: “Muser’s a lousy in-game tactician, too, but that only costs the Royals three or four games per season, which is paltry compared to the other stuff,” wrote Neyer (the full columns are available here. Scroll down to April 19.)

The most insight Muser has shown regarding managing a ballclub in his four years was a comment he made early in May about how the Royals weren’t nasty enough to win at a big league level. “Chewing on cookies and drinking milk and praying is not going to get it done… I’d like them to go out and pound tequila rather than have cookies and milk because nobody is going to get us out of this but us.” No better managing advice has been given to a losing ballclub since the Seattle Pilots’ Joe Schultz told his hapless team to “pound that ol’ Budweiser.”

Anyway, despite his poor record, K.C. management stands behind him, which only goes to show that Muser’s incompetence is symptomatic in the organization. But my point is the last person I’d think of when I think of an All-Star caliber manager is Tony Muser. I don’t know what rationale Joe Torre could have used, other than Tony Muser is about to die, and this is his last request. Blindfold and cigarette, please…

Goodbye, Country Joe

The Yankees have shuffled their roster considerably over the past week or so, in the name of strenghtening their bench. Jorge Posada’s thumb injury triggered a veritable avalanche of moves, and it’s a sure thing that more changes are to come.

Posada’s injury necessitated the addition of a third catcher, who arrived in the person of Todd Greene. Greene was once a hot prospect for the Angels, but injuries have derailed his career. Signed by the Yankees because they offered him the opportunity to prove he could catch again, he was recalled from Columbus and had an immediate impact, with a three-run HR in his first game and three more RBI in his second.

The move apparently made Joe Oliver expendible. I have a soft spot for “Country Joe,” as I call him. Amid the hip-hop and classic rock intros which introduce the players for their at-bats at Yankee Stadium, Oliver stuck out with his country music intros. But not the good kind of country; this was the contemporary Nashville stuff which sounds as if Hank Williams were never born. Still, I respected his individuality in that department. Anyway, Oliver is a savvy veteran who’s been around the block, and even has a World Series ring to show for it (Cincinnati 1990, with Paul O’Neill and Lou Piniella). I was at the game on Sunday night against the Braves, where Oliver drilled a Greg Maddux pitch into the black “batter’s eye” at Yankee Stadium—a rarefied zone which only 16 players have previously reached (Posada had done so the night before, coincidentally).

Now Oliver is as gone as that home run, which is, in my mind, a questionable call. Carrying three catchers gives Torre the luxury of occasionally DHing Posada, who’s become one of the Yanks most productive and feared hitters. Greene has some versatility, able to play 1st and the outfield. Oliver had 10 HR and and 803 OPS last year, and he’s probably a better defensive catcher than Posada. So I’m not crazy about the move.

The Yanks have jettisoned outfielders Michael Coleman, Henry Rodriguez and Robert Perez, as well. Rodriguez got exactly eight at-bats to make or break a $1.5 million contract—and they traded Glenallen Hill to give him a shot! All Hill did last year was crush a lot, 27 HR in 300 ABs. The move was merely a cosmetic one, to protect the Yanks from having the highest payroll in the game. You can’t tell me they don’t miss the occasional pop he brings.

Coleman was as useless as bosoms on a pitching coach—a guy who couldn’t hit any breaking pitch, had no strike zone judgement (he’s got a Soriano like 1:26 walk to strikeout ratio for his career), and was uncomfortable coming off the bench. Like the typical Coleman at-bat, that’s three strikes right there.

The Yanks picked up outfielders Darren Bragg and Shane Spencer, and infielder Enrique Wilson. Spencer is a welcome return; he was finally hitting his stride when he tore his ACL last year. Given the struggles of O’Neill, David Justice, and Chuck Knoblauch, Spencer should get his share of at-bats if he’s healthy. Bragg brings some speed, and the ability to play CF, which is enough to justify his roster spot.

The other addition to the roster is infielder Enrique Wilson. Once highly regarded as a Cleveland Indians prospect, he was stinking (.186) in oblivion (Pittsburgh). He’s not yet 26, can play 2B, SS, and 3B, and he had a 767 OPS last year, so he’s not a bad pickup. The move may portend bigger things; if the Yanks find it necessary to trade Alfonso Soriano to get this year’s model of David Justice, Wilson is a likely candidate to step in as the regular. Don’t be surprised if it happens.

Bobby Cox—Dominant Manager?

On the occasion of his first managerial meeting with his mentor, Toronto Manager Buck Martinez pronounced Bobby Cox “the dominant manager of his era.”

Indeed, Cox is a fine manager. Since 1991, he’s led the Atlanta Braves to nine division crowns, five pennants, and one World Championship. An impressive record of success, no doubt. Of course, during that same time period, Joe Torre has trumped him with four World Championships, including two victories over Cox’s teams.

Cox is great for the long haul, but his postseason record leaves much to be desired. Besides Torre, he’s lost out to Tom Kelly, Cito Gaston, Jim Leyland, Bruce Bochy, and Tony LaRussa. Good managers all, yet none (okay, maybe LaRussa) hailed as the answer to Casey Stengel.

I’ve been doing a lot of research on Tommy Lasorda lately, and thinking about his methods in the context of what constitutes a great manager. Lasorda’s tactics were overshadowed by his personality, by and large, but one would have to say that he made his personality part of his tactics. What I mean is, when Lasorda’s teams showed a weakness, he could deflect attention away from that though his own magnetism, while rallying the troops at the same time. Think of the 1988 World Series, where he won with a cleanup hitter who batted .196, among a patchwork of role players pressed into duty by injuries.

Lasorda’s not alone in his force-of-personality shtick. Pepperpots like Billy Martin and Earl Weaver pulled as much or more out of less talented ballclubs and acted as lightning rods for the attention. Their teams were almost always in contention.

Cox, on the other hand, has always struck me as somewhat bloodless. I’ve seen the man blow up over bad calls, but I also get the sense that he’s not one to resort to the kind of win-one-for-the-Gipper pep talk that a team might sometimes need. I know this may sound stupid, when we sit here analyzing statistics and tendencies, but the manager of the team sets the tone. Torre’s professionalism, Martin’s aggressiveness, Lasorda’s B.S., whatever it takes…

Character doesn’t win ballgames, but the collective attitude of a team does have an impact on how they play. The Braves seem to lack a hunger to get over the hump at critical times, and in my eyes that’s a reflection of the manager. Dominance of the NL East and the National League during the course of the past decade—that I will concede to Cox. But he falls short beyond that measure.

The Kevin Bacon of Baseball

A guest writer for Baseball Primer named Jonathan Daly has suggested that pitcher Mike Morgan is the Kevin Bacon of baseball. That is, he can be linked by a few degrees of separation to nearly everybody in the baseball universe.

Morgan has played for twelve different teams over twenty-one seasons, spanning four decades. Daly estimates Morgan has had close to 650 teammates, which is around 4% of all major leaguers who ever played. Each of those players has a Morgan number of 1. Daly doesn’t count managers and coaches in his linking.

Here’s as close as I’m ever going to get: The only foul ball I ever retrieved was at a rookie league game in Walla Walla, Washington, and was signed by catcher Bob Geren. Geren eventually made the big leagues and was a teammate of Don Mattingly, who was a teammate of Mike Morgan. Thus, my Morgan number is 3.

Roll over, Mike Morgan, and tell Kevin Bacon the news…