The Fat Man

Four days after failing to retire a single batter and leaving the game suffering from back spasms, David Wells pitched seven shutout innings. Okay, it was only the Cincinnati Reds. But the start affirmed that Wells is reasonably healthy, and is capable of pitching well, especially when he’s got something to prove.

The win also brought the Chicago White Sox, who have won 14 of 17, to within 4 games of .500. They’re still in 3rd place, 11 games behind Minnesota and 10.5 games behind Cleveland for the Wild Card. But the bleeding has apparently stopped, and Wells’ performance may, paradoxically, keep him in Chicago.

Or it may just up the ante when the Red Sox or the Yankees or another contender comes calling. The price will be high—lately the Sox have been asking for three big-league-ready ballplayers. But so will the stakes. It’s tough to imagine George Steinbrenner sitting on his hands while the Red Sox trade for him.

Consider these stats:

• Wells is 16-8 lifetime against the Yankees.

• He was 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA against them last year.

• In his second game against them, on September 14, he pitched eight strong innings in a game the Blue Jays won in extra innings. The loss was the first one of a 3-15 skid which closed the regular season for the Yankees. Voodoo curse, anyone?

• Wells is 28-9 with a 3.27 ERA lifetime at Yankee Stadium.

If the Yanks don’t get him, and Wells helps somebody beat them, the blood of Brian Cashman will be shed. If the Yanks do get him, and they don’t win, the blood of Brian Cashman will be shed. Oh, to be young and working for the Boss…

The Man in El Guapo’s Pants

Manny Ramirez has missed Boston’s last two games due to illness. Suffering from flu-like symptons, he’s been taking antibiotics. And he’s apparently lost weight. But when asked about his baggy uniform pants, Ramirez explained that they had been fitted for rotund reliever Rich Garces. According to the listings, “El Guapo” (the Handsome One, en Español) outweighs Ramirez by forty pounds.

Which brings up the question I’d love to ask: “Manny, how did you put on your pants today?”

Mike Hampton, slugger

Rob Neyer devoted a whole column to Hampton’s hitting, examining it in the context of other great-hitting pitchers. The last pitcher to hit 5 in one season was Bob Gibson, in 1972. Elsewhere on ESPN.com, Jayson Stark listed the following pitchers who’ve hit five or more since 1968:

Earl Wilson, 1968, 7

Ferguson Jenkins, 1971, 6

Sonny Siebert, 1971, 6

Rick Wise, 1971, 6

Bob Gibson, 1972, 5

Johnny Odom, 1969, 5

Wilson’s season represented the fourth time he topped 5 HR in a season, and his 35 career HRs ranks #2 all time among pitchers to Wes Ferrell (38). Rick Wise’s season included a game in which he hit two homers and threw a no-hitter. He had another two-homer game later that season.

At the other end of the spectrum, I believe Ron Herbel is the worst-hitting pitcher of all time, with a career average of .029 (that’s 6 for 206). In his first season he was 0-for-47, then 1-for-49 in his 2nd season. After that 1-for-96 start, he got hot, banging out four hit over the next two years, two of them doubles. Bob Buhl gets an honorable mention for an 0-for-70 season in 1962, but his .089 career average was much more robust than Herbel’s.

I’ve been fascinated by the hitting records of pitchers ever since Steve Carlton homered against the Dodgers in the 1978 NL Championship Series. The next year, Dodger rookie pitcher Rick Sutcliffe drove in 17 runs, furthering my interest in the subject. Nolan Ryan homered in his first game as a Houston Astro, against the Dodgers, in 1980. Fernando Valenzuela hit ten home runs in his career, as did J.R. Richard. Don Robinson was widely acknowledged as the best-hitting pitcher while I was growing up. In his 15 seasons, he hit .231 with 13 HRs—not exactly Babe Ruth, but good for a couple of pinch-hit chances every year.

My head is filled with this kind of stuff—it’s a wonder I can remember where I parked my car. Oh, wait—I live in New York City and don’t have a car. Whew…

The Orlando Cabrera Incident

The New York Daily News’ Filip Bondy has an entertainingly hyperbolic piece on the Yankees-Expos “rivalry”. According to Bondy, it started with the 1967 World’s Fair in Montreal trying to outdo the previous one in New York. Bondy places Expos SS Orlando Cabrera at the center of the current conflict. Cabrera made the final out of David Cone’s perfect game in 1999. But last season, he exacted some revenge by homering off of Cone, then flipping the bat towards the pitcher’s mound. Bondy’s satire runs until the end, when he refers to Montreal as one of the best factory outlet stores in the major leagues. Anyway…

Baseball in Montreal is in a sorry state, with the recent dismissal of longtime manager Felipe Alou, an attendance that has reached five digits only three times since the season’s first series, and rumors that baseball will eliminate two teams as early as next season. Having recently visited the city and spent an afternoon in the shadow of Le Stade Olympique, the ‘spos have been on my mind. The apathy with which the city views the team saddens me; I would not be surprised to find that I have more fond memories of Tim Raines’ career than most Montreal residents.

The blame should be shared by (who else) the team’s ownership, which seems to be playing out the string before relocating or folding, and the city’s tax base, which is unwilling to fund another stadium to replace the concrete money pit that is the Big O(we).

Montreal is a historic city from a baseball standpoint. Among other things, the city was Jackie Robinson’s first stop once he signed with the Dodgers, the year before he broke the color barrier in the majors. At their peak, the Expos had three Hall of Fame-caliber players, in Tim Raines, Gary Carter, and Andre Dawson. Their 1994 team, which featured Pedro Martinez, Larry Walker, and Moises Alou, had the best record in baseball when the strike pulled the plug. They couldn’t afford to keep those players once their contracts came up, and the team has never been the same.

Major league baseball is a precious gift to any city. If fans don’t support it in Montreal, it ain’t EVER coming back. I hope for the sake of the few Expos fans in Montreal that an ownership committed to keeping the team there can be found. But I’m not optimistic.

Most common scores in baseball history

Over at Baseball Primer, someone has done a tally of every AL and NL game from 1901 to 2000 to find out what the most common scores are. And the winner is… 3-2, beating out 4-3, 2-1 and 5-4.

Sounds like some demented SportsCenter parody now that I read that back. We’ll have highlights on Baseball Tonight immediately following this show…

“I’m seeing the ball right now.”

When pitcher Mike Hampton signed with the Colorado Rockies, many people wondered aloud whether he would fall victim to the rarefied air of the Mile High city. They were partially correct: the home runs have been soaring out, but they’re off of Hampton’s bat. He slugged his fifth of the season yesterday. That’s five more than Ken Griffey, Jr. That’s more than the regular first basemen of the Mets (Todd Zeile) and the Braves (Rico Brogna) combined. Forget the Rey Ordoñez jokes, that’s as many as Derek Jeter has.

Hampton’s a great athlete, and even before this season was considered an exceptional hitter for a pitcher (his last three seasons: .262, .311, and .274). But this power surge is unprecedented for him, as he had never homered coming into the season. At this point it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hampton drawing the occasional pinch-hit duty when he’s not pitching.

Like any complete ballplayer, Hampton has been working on his clichés to go along with his performance. “I’m seeing the ball right now, that’s about as far as I can go,” Hampton said. “I just hit the ball good and got it over the fence.” And those pants, Mike, how do you put them on?

Here’s a little chart:

         AB  HR  RBI   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS

Hampton  37   5   10  .297  .297  .703  1000

Zeile   219   2   27  .274  .357  .361   718

Brogna  146   2   14  .267  .327  .363   690

Ordoñez 183   0   18  .224  .273  .295   568

Griffey  12   0    0  .000  .200  .000   200

Maybe the Mets should have re-signed him after all. I’d pinch-hit him for Ordoñez on any day ending in “y”.

Big Unit in a class by himself

Here’s an interesting piece on where Randy Johnson fits in among today’s elite pitchers. What’s more interesting than the result, to me, is the methodology, because it’s a useful one to compare any group of pitchers.

Today we hear a lot of talk about how great Pedro Martinez is. And it’s true–the man is a great pitcher, and his dominance relative to the conditions of the time is virtually unprecedented. His ERA is less than half of the league’s ERA. Last year he won the ERA title by almost two whole runs (Pedro 1.74, Roger Clemens 3.70)!

But what’s missing from that analysis is some perspective on how valuable Pedro is compared to pitchers from other eras who put up similar numbers (with respect to W-L and ERA), but who may not have been as dominant relative to the league. Sandy Koufax comes to mind, as does Lefty Grove. What they have on Pedro is that they were starting more games (in a four-man rotation rather than five), completing more games (as was the style at the time), and racking up significantly more innings.

The reason this is significant is that in weighing the value of 225 innings of Pedro against 300 innings of Koufax, you’re left with the fact that some other pitcher not named Pedro Martinez has to cover those other 75 innings, and he’s not going to be as good. And that needs to be considered if we’re putting these pitchers in their proper contexts.

Anyway, this article focuses on comparing Randy Johnson to Sandy Koufax using a measure called Wins Above Replacement. A replacement-level pitcher, here, is one who gives up 20 percent more runs than the league average. In other words, a below-average pitcher. As great as Johnson is, he doesn’t measure up to Koufax, which is no embarassment. But the article places him 3rd among active leaders in WAR, behind Clemens and Greg Maddux, but ahead of Tom Glavine and Kevin Brown. Pedro is tied for sixth, but climbing fast.

What I would like to see is a comparison between Martinez, Koufax, Grove, and perhaps a few other pitchers from other eras who sustained periods of dominance along the lines of those three (Mathewson? Maddux? Carlton?). If I had a spreadsheet I’d run it myself, and in time I probably will. For all I know, somebody over at the Baseball Prospectus has already done the work. I’ll keep an eye out.

Winner of the Butch Hobson Award

Jason Varitek broke his elbow diving for a pop foul in an 8-1 game vs. Detroit. Once again, the fullback mentality gets the best of the Red Sox.

I think I’m understanding the Sox better after the events of this week. They seem to think that by emptying the tank in June, be it milking another inning out of Pedro or going full-bore for a pop foul with the game already in hand, they can right 83 years of bad luck. In short, the Sox always seem to be pressing.

Insert your favorite quote here:

A. This ain’t football, we do this every day.

B. Pennants aren’t won in June. But they’re often lost there.

C. If every game is life and death, you’re gonna end up dead a lot of the time.

Now, permit me to enter the 7 1/2th Floor of Fenway Park…

BEING DAN DUQUETTE

“To hell with Jimy Williams. He hasn’t taken our team to the playoffs in… let’s see… twenty goddamned months! Holy shit. I’ve got to fire this guy soon. Fuck. I’ve got to show that drunk Bob Ryan I’m the boss around here.

“To hell with Felipe Alou. Just because he’s free to manage again doesn’t mean I have to hire him. Even with our Montreal connection. Even with everything those writers are saying.

“What this team needs is a manager who will come in and establish some intensity, damn it. No one will be caught not hustling. We must not let up for a minute if we’re going to beat the pinstriped scourge. We need a few more ballplayers like Jason Varitek. Guys willing to risk everything for a single play. Pitchers who’ll take the ball whenever they’re asked to do so, no matter how bad their arm’s hurt. Rod Beck types, damn it! That’s the kind of intensity I need.

“Boy, I sure wish we had a guy like Butch Hobson around. That guy would run through a wall for the Boston fans. I think he did, actually. It’s always third-and-long with him. Da-da-da-DA-da-DA! CHARGE!!!!

“Let’s see… where’s my Rolodex? Hmmmmm…. managers, managers. Billy Martin? He’d never leave the Yankees. And besides, he’s dead. Fuck. Dick Williams? Last seen with his dick hanging out, and on the Yankee payroll no less. No, no, no. Earl Weaver? Too old. Too drunk. Sure would get Bob Ryan off my ass, though. Let’s see… Gene Mauch? Holy shit, that’s IT!!!! He’s got to be due for a pennant some time…”

Should the Red Sox fire Jimy Williams?

Red Sox fans always seem to have one hand on the panic button, the other on a mallet to pound on that hand and make sure the button is getting pressed hard enough. Fire a manager in first place, while one of your three superstars has been on the DL all year? That’s been a popular sentiment among Sox fans, who can’t understand some of Williams’ maneuverings. Williams’ latest sin is limiting Pedro Martinez to 90 pitches on Monday night against the Yankees, a game which the bullpen ultimately blew. But given Pedro’s track record for midseason breakdowns, the move was at least somewhat defensible in my mind. But hey, I’m rooting against them…