The Red Menace

A “Kiss ‘Em Goodbye” piece on the Reds to which I contributed ran at Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Insider on Saturday. Building upon something I noted for the year’s sabermetric highs and lows, these numbers jumped out at me:

Key stat: .245 AVG/.301 OBP/.354 SLG

That’s the combined showing of all Reds batting in the top two lineup spots, constituting 24 percent of the team’s total plate appearances and proving that [Reds manager Dusty] Baker’s ideas about what make an offense work are completely out of touch with reality. During a ghastly stretch in which the team lost 45 out of 68 games, [Willy] Taveras batted an appalling .216/.230/.243, and the lineup’s production shriveled to 3.6 runs per game. Once Taveras mercifully went on the disabled list with a quad strain in mid-August, Baker reacted by locking rookie Drew Stubbs (.260/.313/.438 overall) in the leadoff hole and weak-hitting shortstop Paul Janish (.215/.297/.308 overall) in the second slot. Despite this rather appalling second act of managerial malfeasance, the Reds have gone 26-15 since Taveras went down, though that performance has more to do with a pitching staff that’s held opponents to 3.8 runs per game via strong finishes from [Bronson] Arroyo, [Homer] Bailey, and [Johnny] Cueto.

The Bottom Line: With [Joey] Votto, [Brandon] Phillips, [Jay] Bruce, Stubbs, Cueto, Bailey, and a rehabbed [Edinson] Volquez, the Reds can still claim a promising young nucleus. Alas, Baker’s work this year shows that he may be the biggest obstacle to the team’s success, and with one more year on his deal, he’s not going anywhere. Trading either Arroyo or [Aaron] Harang is certainly an option; the two players have about $28 million remaining on their deals via 2010 contracts and 2011 buyouts, so moving one of them might create an opportunity for a midlevel signing. Still, it’s difficult to envision this team breaking out of the middle of the pack without keen vision and bold steps.

Suffice it to say that Baker’s ineptitude as a manager relative to his reputation really leaves me baffled. Forget his well-earned reputation as an old-school hardass of an arm mangler (Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, now Volquez), where the hell does he think runs come from, the stork?

More to come on playoff-relevant topics later today.

The Rest is Commentary

I have no love lost for J.D. Drew, to say nothing of the antipathy I hold for the Red Sox. But I absolutely respect the job that Sox GM Theo Epstein has done; how can you not, when the team has two rings on his watch, including the one that broke the 86-year Curse of the Bambino? Joe Posnanski hits the nail on the head when he highlights the difference between the front office philosophy of the Red Sox and that of a not-so-smart team. Though he doesn’t mention them by name, the latter is clearly understood to be the Royals, whose aggressive stupidity — Mike Jacobs, Willie Bloomquist, Yuniesky Betancourt, Sidney Ponson, brutal injury management and the ability to alienate even the most devoted, intelligent Royals fans, and that’s just the highlight film from GM Dayton Moore’s past 12 months — makes me entirely unsympathetic to their plight.

Here’s Posnanski quoting Epstein’s appearance on a radio show (italics, emphasis in original) and his own reaction:

“Sometimes you get stuck in the world of evaluating players through home runs and RBIs. And it’s not the way that I think most clubs do it these days. And if you look at underlying performance of a lot of our guys, they bring more to the table than just the counting stats. And J.D.’s certainly having another good year for us. He’s up around a .900 OPS right now, and he’s playing really good defense in right field, he deserves an awful lot of credit for that, he’s been pretty darned good for the three years that he’s been here if you look at the underlying performance.

“…[T]he reason he scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that’s NOT MAKE OUTS. He doesn’t make outs. He’s always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. And he’s a really good base runner. So when he doesn’t make outs, and he gets himself on base, he scores runs — and he has some good hitters hitting behind him. Look at his runs scored on a rate basis with the Red Sox or throughout his career. It’s outstanding.

You guys can talk about RBIs if you want, I just … we ignore them in the front office … and I think we’ve built some pretty good offensive clubs. If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about it as a percentage of opportunity but it’s just simply not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players.”

I have talked many times here about a fan’s desperate wish — desperate wish — to have the team see the game the way the fan sees it. I don’t mean specifics — fire the coach, bench the QB, go for it on fourth down and so on. I mean see it in the macro, in a larger way. If I’m a basketball fan, I would love a team that believes in pushing the ball up the floor. If I’m a football fan, I would love a team that believes in pressuring the quarterback and working the middle of the field. If I’m a baseball fan, I would just love to know that my GM really and truly believes that one thing — that it’s really, really, really important for a baseball player to not make outs.

That seems so simple to me, so utterly basic, so law of gravity. But I know that there are GMs in the league — more than you would ever believe — and lots of other people in and around baseball who do not believe this. It isn’t exactly that they are opposed to players who get on base. They certainly want guys to get on base. No, it is that they believe that OBP — the ability to not make outs — falls behind other more mystical talents such as the ability drive in runners in clutch situations or be a leader in the clubhouse or play the game the right way or whatever. I’m not saying these more mystical skills do not exist. Maybe they do. But I know that if you give me a baseball team of people who do not make outs, that team will score a lot of runs. A team of guys who play the game the right way will score a lot of runs too — assuming that “playing the game the right way” includes not making outs.

That’s just a thing of beauty, both from Epstein and from Posnanski, whose opportunity to jump from the Kansas City Star to Sports Illustrated was a well-earned escape from the drudgery of cataloging the Royals’ endless follies.

Do not make outs. That is the entire law of baseball. All of the rest, as the rabbi said, is commentary.

Random Thought on the 2016 Olympics

So Chicago, with its history of backroom deals and corrupt politics, couldn’t land the 2016 Olympic bid by persuading the inherently corrupt International Olympic Committee, whose members are so crooked that — to borrow a wonderful phrase from the late Hunter S. Thompson — they needed servants to help them screw their pants on every morning? They should have taken lessons from the Salt Lake Olympic Committee — those people knew how to play ball.

Highs and Lows of 2009

As the 2009 season heads into its final weekend, the editors at ESPN Insider invited me to create a list of sabermetrically-themed highlights and lowlights. The piece runs here and here.

A few of the high points were obvious, centered around the accomplishments of Joe Mauer (who’s on his way to becoming the 16th player to lead his league in all three “triple slash” categories (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage), Albert Pujols (whose greatness has become routine) and Zack Greinke (one of the finest seasons of the decade by many measures). Some were drawn from my recent work on topics such as the Angels’ Pythagorean overachievement, the Nationals’ underachievement, the Rangers’ improved defense, and the failures of the Brewers’ and Indians’ rotations.

One of the items that fit neither of those descriptions was this lowlight:

Hell With the Lidge Off: One year after converting every save opportunity that came his way in the regular season and postseason en route to the Phillies’ World Championship, Brad Lidge has not only blown 11 saves and posted a 7.34 ERA, but he’s set a single-season record for the lowest WXRL of any reliever since 1954 (which is to say ever)… Speaking of replacements, the Phillies head into the playoffs in the awkward position of still auditioning potential successors.

Due to space issues, I didn’t run the table I had originally intended to. Here it is:

NAME                TEAM   YEAR   G     IP    FRA      WXRL
Brad Lidge PHI 2009 66 57.7 8.59 -3.273
Doug Jones CLE 1991 36 32.3 8.77 -3.183
Steve Wilson LAN 1992 60 66.7 4.92 -2.856
Rich Gossage CHN 1988 46 43.7 5.39 -2.738
Pete Ladd MIL 1984 54 87.0 5.49 -2.644
Bobby Ayala SEA 1998 62 75.3 7.31 -2.565
Ron Perranoski MIN 1971 36 42.7 8.98 -2.531
Lindy McDaniel NYA 1971 44 69.7 5.42 -2.448
Jason Isringhausen SLN 2008 42 42.7 6.31 -2.342
Mitch Williams HOU 1994 25 20.0 9.53 -2.320
Jack Baldschun PHI 1965 65 99.0 5.90 -2.309
Dan Spillner CLE 1983 60 92.3 5.74 -2.303
Rollie Fingers SDN 1979 54 83.7 5.78 -2.296
Norm Charlton SEA 1997 71 69.3 8.26 -2.276
Rod Scurry PIT 1983 61 68.0 6.25 -2.250
Rick Camp ATL 1978 42 52.7 6.37 -2.240
Kyle Farnsworth CHN 2002 45 46.7 8.77 -2.229
Pete Mikkelsen LAN 1971 41 74.0 4.62 -2.216
John O'Donoghue MIL 1970 25 23.3 9.97 -2.211
Matt Herges MON 2002 62 64.7 5.89 -2.194

So many memories, though I’m pleased to note that the Dodgers’ Wilson isn’t one of them, falling in the college-era days when I could scarcely be bothered to follow baseball. Back in a moment of pre-Futility Infielder creativity, Charlton (“The Arsonist” as I christened him) became my muse. Elsewhere on the list are atypically horrible seasons from Hall of Famers Gossage and Fingers as well as ageless relief stalwarts Jones, Perranoski, and McDaniel, all of whom appeared in over 700 games in otherwise esteemed careers, quintessential journeymen like Spillner, Camp, and Herges, and Charlton’s partner in conflagration, Ayala. There’s also “Wild Thing” Williams’ follow-up to the 1993 World Series; in an interesting bit of irony, he was traded for Jones and the eternally unpopular Jeff Juden less than six weeks after surrendering Joe Carter’s series-clinching homer. And speaking of eternally unpopular, there’s Kyle Farnsworth!

• • •

Thanks to a late tip from Alex Belth, I found myself at the Gelf Magazine “Varsity Letters” night on Thursday night in Brooklyn, where authors Joe Posnanski (The Machine), Larry Tye (Satchel) and Jennifer Ring (Stolen Bases: Why American Girls Don’t Play Baseball), and filmmaker Jonathan Hock (The Lot Son of Havana) held court. Hock’s excerpts of his film about Luis Tiant’s return to Cuba looked fantastic; his movie runs on ESPN Classic this Sunday. Ring’s reading was provocative, Tye’s a bit overly polished but nonetheless engaging. Batting in the cleanup spot nearly two hours into the affair, Poz’s was a treat as he read excerpts from his book about the 1975 Reds and discussed Tony Perez’s Hallworthiness, Pete Rose’s ferocity as a player, Joe Morgan’s contrarian nature, Sparky Anderson’s love/hate relationship with his pitchers, and his previous book with Buck O’Neil (The Soul of Baseball). In a nice bit of synergy, he followed Tye’s presentation on Satchel Paige with the infamous “Nancy” story before turning to the Reds.

The Gelf site has lengthy interviews with the aforementioned authors which more or less capture the flavor of the presentations they made. Here’s Posnanski discussing Morgan at length:

Gelf Magazine: Joe Morgan is sort of inevitably a fraught character for the contemporary reader. As brilliant as he was on the field, as a broadcaster he really has made himself a villain of sorts to a certain type of sports fan, and it’s hard not to try to reverse-engineer the carping, negative, revanchist mic-jockey of today in reading about the dazzling, instinctive, driven player he once was. Considering that you’re in the vanguard of a style of writing and thinking about baseball that Morgan has aligned himself so decisively against, did you find it difficult to talk to Morgan? And if I could ask you to do some soothsaying, how do you think he went from being nearly the ultimate Moneyball-style player to being the chief exponent of this proudly ignorant anti-information movement?

Joe Posnanski: The disconnect between Morgan the player and Morgan the announcer is one that I’m just not sure anyone has figured. Bill James tells a great story about how one time Jon Miller showed Morgan Bill’s New Historical Baseball Abstract, which has Morgan ranked as the best second baseman of all time, ahead of Rogers Hornsby. Well, Morgan starts griping that this was ridiculous, that Hornsby hit .358 in his career, and Morgan never hit .358, and so on. And there it was, perfectly aligned — Joe Morgan the announcer arguing against Joe Morgan the player.

You’re right about Joe Morgan being the ultimate Moneyball-style player, too. It wasn’t just his style of play, either; Joe Morgan quotes from 1975 sound like they could have gone into the book Moneyball, verbatim. He talked all the time about how batting average was overrated, and how you had to get on base, and how RBIs were just a context statistic, and how you had to steal bases at a high percentage, and so on and so on.

If I had to take a stab at what became of that Joe Morgan, I think it would be that Joe always had this belief, common among great players, that to play baseball well takes something more than athletic ability, practice, and a certain mental dexterity. He always believed that it takes moral courage, the nerves of a cat burglar, the strength of a thousand men. He believed even then that the people who played baseball well had something inside that regular, ordinary people were missing. And that belief has grown since 1975. He is anti-Moneyball, I think, not because he has spent a lot of time analyzing it but because it was written by a guy who didn’t play baseball (and it’s about a guy who wasn’t good enough to play baseball). He is anti-Bill James because James didn’t play baseball. These people couldn’t possibly understand the game. They had never stared into the eyes of Bob Gibson. They had never been upended by Willie Stargell. They can’t understand.

And the more years that pass, the more intently he pushes that line of thinking. For Joe, getting a single with a man on second in a tie game isn’t just a good piece of hitting, it’s a moral triumph. And, yes, that’s hard to listen to. The shame of it is, I don’t think Joe was a bad announcer in his early years, before this part of himself set in. He’s an extremely smart guy and very funny in the right setting.
I’ll tell you one more Joe story that struck me. They had a gathering of the Great Eight in Cincinnati last year. It was a fun dinner, and the guys talked about the old days, and it was really great. And at some point, they were talking about how Joe wasn’t much of a player in Houston before he came to the Reds. And Joe explained that he was still a good player then but he was playing half his games in the Astrodome, which was a terrible hitters’ park. He’s absolutely right. And it was as if the words had come right out of the mouth of Bill James. Joe averaged almost 100 walks a season in Houston, and he hit twice as many homers on the road. He did become a better player in Cincinnati, but some of that improvement is just context. But the other guys on the team didn’t buy it for one minute and they ripped him and mocked him for talking about how bad a hitters’ park the Astrodome was. And Joe kind of smiled and then admitted that, yes, it was being around the winners in Cincinnati that made him a better player. It’s like a little bit of that old Joe wanted to get out.

After the reading, I had a brief chat with Poz as he signed my book; I didn’t get to talk to Tye because I was so busy catching up with local amigos Belth, Emma Span, and Joe Sheehan, none of whom I see often enough, and a few other acquaintances from the world of sportswriting. The conversation eventually took itself to a bar around the corner, where a handful of us knocked a few back while bullshitting about baseball and other sports well into the wee hours, with a good chunk of the conversation centered around Tom Verducci’s ace cover story on Mariano Rivera in this week’s Sports Illustrated. But for the morning’s deadlines, I think we could have gone all night. Fun stuff.

One Night Beyond the Moat

On Tuesday night, I had the quite the treat. Not only did I attend an exciting (if rather meaningless) Yankees victory — complete with made-to-order Kyle Farnsworth meltdown — with friend and colleague Steven Goldman, but thanks to a connection on the inside, we had a view from the so-called Legends seats down the right field line. Section 11, Row 6 if you’re keeping score. My lone pic, taken during the pregame warmup:

Now, I certainly have my reservations and criticisms about the excesses of Yankee Stadium III, but I was in no position to refuse a complementary glimpse into this little world of indulgence. Steve wrote about his experience at the Pinstriped Bible, but because he was late for the game due to travel difficulties, I gained a slightly different perspective on the pregame accommodations by dining at the all-you-can eat buffet in the Legends Suite club, where the food was considerably better than the chicken nuggets and french fries he availed himself of later in the evening. Without resorting to sheer gluttony, I did sample five different meat offerings (pork loin, veal, beef ribs, mini kielbasa, and something called a foie slider), though I eschewed the tantalizing sweets that were on offer save for one chocolate-covered strawberry. The veal (which I had selected thinking was pork shoulder) was terribly dry, a sad failure to honor the protein, and the slider was just a rather nondescript, dry little burger, but the pork was much better, and the ribs, which had a pleasantly sweet Asian-style glaze, were outstanding. Remembering Steve’s sage advice about eating scampi or sushi prepared in the bowels of the previous Yankee Stadium, I steered entirely clear of the seafood, though I must admit that the seared scallops that went by me looked quite tempting.

Thus sated, I didn’t need to further gorge myself while seated (as several around us did) or in the smaller Ketel One Lounge behind our section. After I took out a second mortgage to pay for the one beer I ordered at my seat (alcohol was the only cash outlay on my part for the entire evening), I went light on the whole service aspect of things

With the Yankees having clinched the AL East flag and home field advantage two days earlier against the Red Sox — a game I also attended, viewing from my regular peanut gallery seats — attendance was sparse, particularly in these seats. I’d estimate our section, which was the furthest one down the right field line, was about one-third capacity, and I was clearly the only one with a scorebook (some habits die hard). The majority of the male constituents in our vicinity were at the very least dressed in business casual attire. The two gents next to me still had their ties on, and the gin-soused boor who was ejected for harassing the security guard (see Steve’s writeup) was wearing a suit, not to mention a particularly horseshit pink-and-purple tie that did not go unremarked-upon by yours truly from down in his cups once said boor was in NYPD custody. In comedy, timing is everything.

The game itself was an exciting affair despite the low stakes. A.J. Burnett was fairly sharp, as was Royals starter Anthony Lerew, providing for a brisk pitcher’s duel over the first six innings. The Royals scratched out a run in the third and the Yanks knotted the score in the sixth off a Mark Teixeira solo shot. Things got more hectic in the seventh, when Burnett walked leadoff hitter Mark Teahen and reliever Phil Coke suddenly forgot how to field his position, failing to make a play on a bunt single and making a throwing error one batter later, all leading to two runs.

Lerew’s night ended when Nick Swisher led off the home half of the seventh with a solo homer, but by the time the Yankees mounted their rally against Farnsworth (charged with closing because ace Royals closer Joakim Soria had thrown 46 pitches the day before), the B team was in. With one out, third-string catcher Francisco Cervelli beat out an infield hit, then Eric Hinske, hitting for Ramiro Peña (who’d started at second base) singled him to third base, and Robinson Cano, pinch-hitting for Derek Jeter, tied the game with a sacrifice fly. Hinske did a double bellyflop on a busted hit-and-run, sliding into second base safely on his ample gut, then again after taking third when the throw dribbled into center field. Johnny Damon was intentionally walked, and then rookie first baseman Juan Miranda lined a shot off the eternally hapless Farnsworth’s leg. The ball rolled into foul territory on the first base side as Hinske scored, and a pack of rabid Yankees ran down Miranda, who got his obligatory whipped cream pie in the face during the postgame interview. Fun stuff for the kid as the Yankee scrubs beat the Royal schlubs.

All in all, it’s clear I could never get used to wallowing in such luxury during a ballgame. As the ejected boor’s go-work-at-McDonalds tirade illustrated, the class distinctions between the patrons and the employees in the Legends seating area are laid all too bare, at least for my tastes. I won’t snub a freebie to get beyond the velvet rope once in a blue moon, but all things considered, I’m much happier paying my twenty bucks to sit in the nosebleeds and standing in line for my beer.

The Impact of Elvis, and Other Defensive Improvements

In today’s Prospectus Hit and Run piece, I revisit an early-season look at the Rangers’ improvement in Defensive Efficiency (the rate at which a team’s defense turns batted balls into outs), itself a follow-up of sorts to the record-setting improvement pulled off by last year’s Rays. They’re no threat to break that record, but they’ve done pretty well for themselves:

Team        2009   2008     +/- 
Reds .705 .673 .032
Rangers .701 .670 .031
Mariners .712 .682 .030
Dodgers .714 .691 .023
Giants .705 .685 .020
Yankees .699 .682 .017
Pirates .691 .675 .016
Rockies .690 .678 .012
Tigers .696 .685 .011
Twins .692 .687 .005

While that 31-point improvement doesn’t top the record-setting 54-point improvement achieved by last year’s Rays, it would tie for the eighth-largest year-to-year increase in the Retrosheet era (since 1954), a tidy accomplishment. The improvement isn’t solely due to [Elvis] Andrus, who ranks fourth among major league shortstops in Fielding Runs Above Average (+13) and Plus-Minus (+11 runs), and second in UZR (+10.1). Ian Kinsler (+16 FRAA/+7.5 UZR/+16 Plus-Minus) outdoes Andrus by some metrics, and right fielder Nelson Cruz’s numbers are particularly off the charts in both FRAA (+21) and UZR (+13), though they weigh in more conservatively at +7 in Plus-Minus. While the magnitude of his contribution may be in doubt, there’s no question that Cruz deserves at least some of the credit for the fact that the team ranks sixth in slugging percentage in balls in play after ranking last in 2008, as Matt Swartz noted last week.

…Also particularly notable among the improved defenses are the playoff-bound Dodgers and Yankees. Rafael Furcal’s return to regular duty, the upgrade from Jeff Kent to Orlando Hudson, and a surprisingly strong season with the leather from Casey Blake have made the difference for the former, particularly in helping Randy Wolf place 11th in the league in SNLVAR via a league-low .254 BABIP. As for the Yanks, they owe their improvement to the arrivals of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, the departures of Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, the increased presence of both Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera, and a surprisingly strong season from Derek Jeter. Their Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (-0.14) shows that they’re basically an average unit at best.

Which puts them ahead of their AL East rivals; indeed the division seems to be leaking defense, given that the Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays all rank among the six teams with the largest declines from last year. In Toronto, center fielder Vernon Wells is as much of a drag in the field (-6 FRAA/-18.3 UZR/-17 Plus-Minus) as he is on the payroll. In Tampa Bay, the Rays have dropped back to the middle of the pack after last year’s turnaround; the various fielding systems differ as to where the responsibility for that lies, with Jason Bartlett, Carlos Peña and B.J. Upton each showing up as solidly below average in two of the three major ones.

Because they’ll have to live with their defense beyond this weekend, it’s the Red Sox who are of the most interest from among this group. Shortstop has been the team’s Achilles heel; in the absence of Jed Lowrie, they’ve gotten below-average work from Nick Green, Julio Lugo, and Alex Gonzalez. The team’s BABIP since acquiring the supposedly slick-fielding Gonzalez in mid-August has risen from .314 to .325, and that’s with the departures of John Smoltz and Brad Penny, who were doing little more than tossing BP while in a Boston uniform. Mike Lowell hasn’t been the same since hip surgery, declining by 27 runs according to FRAA, 21.6 according to UZR, and 22 according to Plus-Minus. The outfield’s been a problem as well, with Jacoby Ellsbury falling off a whopping 38 runs according to FRAA, 18.6 runs according to UZR, and 14 according to Plus-Minus. Don’t even ask about the catching situation, which doesn’t figure into Defensive Efficiency but which rates as a major concern given their upcoming first-round matchup with the fleet-footed Angels.

At the end of the piece I examine the expected regression to the mean of the 23 teams who improved by at least 26 points from Year 0 to Year 1 and played full schedules in Year 2 (i.e., no strikes, or at least none longer than the 1972 one). Eighteen of the 23 teams declined, and two more were within a point of doing so; the average decline from Year 1 to Year 2 was 10 points. Even so, only one of those teams actually lost ground from Year 0 to Year 2, and the average gain across that two-year stretch was 19 points — a mark we can expect the Rangers to better in 2010 given the return of Elvis.

The Tyner Totem Resurfaces

Remember the saga of the Jason Tyner bobblehead? Blogger Clark Brooks, an avid collector of what the old-schoolers call “nodders,” reports that he too is in possession of one of those rare dolls. he left a link to a post discussing the resemblance of various players (and non-players) to their bobbleheads. “I wish I could tell you how I got mine but I can’t,” he writes of the Tyner totem. “Somebody almost got in trouble for it then and could get in trouble all over again now. So, sorry.”

Docked a notch for a lack of candor, but still impressive. Or at least moreso than the real Tyner hitting a combined .153/.223/.176 in limited duty with the Tigers’ and Brewers’ Triple-A clubs. Oh, mama, can this really be the end?

Friday’s Child (Penultimate Edition)

As noted last week, I spend a lot of my time at BP exploring the margin between teams’ expected performance (as based upon variants of Bill James’ Pythagorean formula) and their actual performance, looking for reasons why it happens and cues as to what it portends. Having taken on the Pythagorean overachievers in last week’s Prospectus Hit and Run, this week I delved into the underachievers. We’ve got a bumper crop of them at the moment:

Meanwhile, there’s also potential history being made at the other, less happy end of the Pythagorean spectrum. Since 1901, twenty-five teams have finished at least 10 games below their third-order Pythagenpat projection. Only twice have two teams done so within the same year, first time in 1912 (when both the Brooklyn Dodgers and Boston Braves achieved ignominy), and then again in 1993 (when the Mets and Padres did it). This year, no less than four teams are threatening to join those ranks, including two from the same division:
Rnk  Year Team         W-L    Pct    R    RA   AEQR  AEQRA   D3
1 1993 Mets 59-103 .364 672 744 672 736 -15.1
2 1935 Braves 38-115 .248 575 852 593 835 -14.6
3 1986 Pirates 64-98 .395 663 700 666 697 -13.6
4 2009 Nationals 51-99 .340 661 825 664 773 -13.2

5 1946 A's 49-105 .318 529 680 529 662 -12.8
6 1905 Browns 54-99 .353 512 608 521 601 -12.7
7 1937 Reds 56-98 .364 612 706 620 700 -12.4
8 1939 Browns 43-111 .279 733 1035 752 1003 -12.2
9 1962 Mets 40-120 .250 617 948 631 924 -12.1
10 1917 Pirates 51-103 .331 464 595 468 579 -11.9
11t 1975 Astros 64-97 .398 664 711 668 711 -11.8
11t 1984 Pirates 75-87 .463 615 567 612 564 -11.8
13 2001 Rockies 73-89 .451 923 906 910 870 -11.5
14 1993 Padres 61-101 .377 679 772 681 764 -11.4
15 2009 Blue Jays 68-83 .450 727 719 745 714 -11.3

16t 1924 Cardinals 65-89 .422 740 750 745 752 -11.1
16t 1961 Phillies 47-107 .305 584 796 599 782 -11.1
18 1907 Reds 66-87 .431 526 519 527 522 -11.0
19 1967 Orioles 76-85 .472 654 592 657 602 -11.0
20 1936 Phillies 54-100 .351 726 874 739 869 -10.9
21 2006 Indians 78-84 .481 870 782 882 800 -10.7
22t 1912 Dodgers 58-95 .379 651 744 665 742 -10.4
22t 1952 Tigers 50-104 .325 557 738 563 716 -10.4
23 2009 D'backs 66-86 .434 678 735 693 690 -10.3

24 1919 Senators 56-84 .400 533 570 533 565 -10.2
25t 1912 Braves 52-101 .340 693 871 705 857 -10.1
25t 1928 Phillies 43-109 .283 660 957 682 936 -10.1
25t 1972 Giants 69-86 .445 662 649 662 648 -10.1
30t 2009 Rays 77-74 .510 748 691 774 662 -9.6

Recall that the overachievers list skews towards recent history, with the Wild Card era producing eight of the 21 teams who have finished at least 10 games above their expected records. This one, on the other hand, tilts heavily towards the pre-World War II era, producing 12 of the 25 who’ve finished at least 10 games below their expected records. Not counting this year’s bountiful class, just two of the top underachievers are from the Wild Card era.

The main reason for that, I suspect, has to do with bullpen usage. As noted last year and again in last week’s piece, a strong bullpen is a consistent means of such overachievement; the historical correlation between a team’s cumulative WXRL and its D3 is .42, whereas it’s just .20 for SNLVAR. It makes some amount of sense that the current era might produce more overachievers and fewer underachievers because of the fact that WXRL rates and Leverage scores have been on the rise historically, as bullpens have assumed a higher percentage of innings and increased specialization has tailored more specific roles than 20 or 30 years ago…

Note that Bruce Sutter’s advent as the modern closer marks something of a turning point [in the graph]. WXRL rates rose above 0.1 per nine innings only four times from 1954 through 1979. By that point, Cubs manager Herman Franks had begun his attempt to limit Sutter’s deployment to close games in which the Cubs had a lead—save situations, in other words. The strategy began to take hold, and the only time WXRL rates have been below 0.1 per nine innings since was in the 1981 strike year. They’re now about 40 percent higher than they were 30 years ago.

If the Rays join the club, they’ll be the first team with a record above .500 to do so. At this writing, they’re now 9.5 games below expectation. The Angels, alas, have fallen back to 8.6 wins above expectation, though they can still make history as the first team to finish above 8.0 three years in a row even if they don’t finish above 10.0 for the second straight year.

Anyway, I’ll be spending a lot more time doing so in the coming weeks, both for the BP site and our forthcoming annual, where I’ll be writing about some of the teams involved in these over/underachievments.

• • •

Meanwhile, this week’s Hit List is the penultimate one of the 2009 season. It finds the Dodgers retaking the lead from the Yankees, and a bit of food for thought regarding the handling of young pitchers:

[#1 Dodgers] R&R: The Dodgers haven’t quite clinched a playoff berth, but they’re an eyelash away. Ronnie Belliard helps push them closer with his grand slam off Brad Penny, his second homer in as many starts. Belliard’s .333/.382/.619 showing since his August 30 acquisition is hot enough that Joe Torre is surprisingly noncommittal about whether slumping Orlando Hudson (.233/.313/.302 in September, and now earning an additional $10,000 for every plate appearance) is still the starting second baseman. Meanwhile, Rafael Furcal may finally be shaking his season-long funk, hitting .471/.538/.824 over the last eight games, compared to .256/.321/.352 prior.

[#2 Yankees] The Yankees clinch a postseason berth while taking a series in Anaheim, their first since 2004. As their focus shifts to October, there’s plenty of concern about their rotation, particularly Joba Chamberlain, whose latest bombing pushes his ERA to 8.25 since the beginning of August and threatens his roster spot. It also leaves Chad Gaudin as the potential number four starter behind CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. Gaudin’s .496 SNWP and 3.33 ERA in five starts with the Yanks are respectable, but if he’s so great, why waste so much time on Sergio Mitre?

[#3 Red Sox] Young Buchh: Tim Wakefield continues to struggle with his pitching and his health but Clay Buchholz is stepping up just in time. His 6.2 scoreless innings against the Royals marks his ninth quality start out of 10, a span during which he’s posted a 2.37 ERA and allowed just four homers in 64.2 innings. If there’s concern to be had, it’s that Buccholz has now pitched 183 innings between the minors and majors this year, up from 134.2 last year—well beyond the so-called “Rule of 30″ increase, but aesthetically speaking, miles beyond the Joba Rules.

Time will tell, of course, whether Buchholz’s handling and heavy 2009 workload was detrimental to his career, or Chamberlain’s handling was beneficial to his, and it’s fair to note that the Laptop Thief is a year older — and further removed from what we at BP refer to as the injury nexus — than Joba, but right now, the Red Sox look to have a clear leg up on the manner in which they’ve handled things.

Totally Horseshit: The Jim Rice Story

Having spent his summer besmirching the character of Derek Jeter, Jim Rice continues to demonstrate why he’s as horseshit with a mic in his hand as he was as a Hall of Fame candidate. After watching leading AL Cy Young candidate Zack Greinke shut out the Red Sox while allowing two hits, Rice declares that Greinke isn’t as dominant as Pedro Martinez circa 2000 (possibly the greatest season ever for a pitcher, at least in the modern day), isn’t impressed with Greinke’s command, and furthermore, that he reminds ol’ GIDP of Roger Moret, who went all of 47-27 with a 108 ERA+ in the Seventies with the Red Sox, Braves and Rangers but is sadly more notable for a slide into mental illness.

Never mind the fact that Greinke leads the league in ERA (2.08) and hit rate 07.6 per nine), is second in strikeouts (229) and K/BB ratio (4.9) and first in shutouts (3) — stats that suggest TOTAL FUCKING DOMINANCE. But I guess all those crazy pitchers look alike to Rice, who is replacing Joe Morgan as Captain Obtuse among the ex-jocks in the booth.

Anyway, Joe Posnanski takes Rice to the woodshed in his inimitable style.

Now … there just isn’t a lot good to say about a post that would compare Zack Greinke to Roger Moret. I mean, to me this is like watching the young Dwight Gooden and saying he reminds you a bit of Bruce Kison. It is true, yes, that both Moret and Greinke are carbon-based life forms who at one time made money by pitching baseballs.

…I do think we’ll have to start a series called “Jim Rice scouting reports.” Our first installment:

Albert Pujols didn’t really impress me last night. Yes he went 2-for-4 and maybe I caught him on a bad night, but he didn’t hit a single home run. He may have the most home runs in the league but he doesn’t strike me as a home run hitter. Don’t get me wrong, he hit two doubles, and those were fine, but he’s not the home run hitter that Willie Mays was or Babe Ruth or Josh Gibson, if you believe what people say.

He reminds me of a right-handed Lloyd Moseby. He has that solid stance and doubles-power swing.

Go read.

Kiss ‘Em Goodbye

Forgot to mention this in my last entry, but the Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Insider teams are collaborating on a series called “Kiss ‘Em Goodbye,” in which we provide postmortems for the teams that have been eliminated from contention. ESPN’s Buster Olney provides one take, a BP author summarizes our preseason expectations for the club and provides a more statistically-driven take, our Kevin Goldstein weighs in with some prospect information, some draft and trade rumor stuff is thrown into the mix along with a preliminary outlook for 2010… you get the idea.

I’ve contributed to two of these thus far, last week covering the Brewers, and this week the Indians. Interestingly enough, both teams had something in common: rotations that outside of one guy, largely stunk on ice. Here’s my take on the Brewers:

Despite reaching the postseason last year for the first time since 1982, PECOTA pegged them for an 83-79 season, with an 18.5 percent chance at winning the division and a 10 percent shot at the NL Wild Card. Interestingly enough, even given the free-agency departures of [CC] Sabathia and [Ben] Sheets, the team projected to be stronger on the run prevention side (sixth in the league) than on the scoring side (ninth), a counterintuitive forecast given the fact that six of the lineup’s eight projected regulars are between the ages of 25 and 29 — or in their statistical prime as far as their expected production. Fielder and Ryan Braun have certainly lived up to expectations, ranking third and eighth in the league in EqA, respectively. Although Rickie Weeks suffered a season-ending injury in May, and J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, and Bill Hall all disappointed, the team got solid enough work from the likes of Mike Cameron, Craig Counsell, Casey McGehee, and Felipe Lopez that they actually rank third in the league in team EqA. On the other hand, the rotation has been an utter disaster.

Key stat: 5.59

That’s the ERA of all of the Brewers’ starting pitchers aside from Gallardo, whose 3.84 mark is the only one that’s better than the park-adjusted league average. Braden Looper (4.77) has eaten innings but done little else worthy of note. Jeff Suppan (4.87) and David Bush (5.85, including 8.24 since the end of May) have combined injury and ineffectiveness, while Manny Parra (6.42) has been dreadful. Fill-ins Carlos Villanueva, Seth McClung, and Mike Burns combined for a 7.25 ERA as starters, not only revealing the organization’s sheer lack of rotation depth, but also compromising their bullpen depth via their absence from the relief corps (in the cases of the first two) and their short starts. As a unit, the Brewers rank 15th in the league in Support-Neutral Winning Percentage (.444), and dead last in rotation ERA (5.19).

The fault here lies with Melvin for his failure to replace Sabathia and Sheets with anything approaching adequacy. Getting a full season out of Gallardo, who was limited to just four starts in 2008 due to a torn ACL, was enough to partially offset those front-end losses from the rotation, but when it came time to open the wallet last winter, the best the Brewers could do was to sign Looper to a one-year, $4.75 million deal with incentives and an option. The bigger problem, of course, is the four-year, $42 million deal they’re still paying to Suppan, who’s rewarded the Brewers with a Looper-like 4.80 ERA through 91 starts thus far. Freed of that obligation, they might have been able to afford another midrotation starter who could have helped keep them afloat

As for the Indians…

Key Stat: 5.75

That’s the ERA of the starting pitchers aside from [Cliff] Lee, who was traded to the Phillies on July 29. The only starter besides Lee with at least 10 starts and an ERA below 4.92 is Aaron Laffey, for whom the team didn’t even have space in the rotation until the season was already going down in flames. Laffey’s also the only starter this side of Lee with a Support-Neutral Winning Percentage above .500. For all of the bullpen’s woes, the starters simply didn’t give the Indians a chance to win; aside from Lee, their combined SNWP is just .431.

In retrospect, it’s clear that the cast that GM Mark Shapiro assembled behind Lee offered too much risk. Shapiro’s plan hinged on rebounds from mostly-lost 2008 seasons by Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and [Fausto] Carmona — with a comeback from Tommy John surgery by Jake Westbrook supposed to provide a mid-season lift. None of those pitchers miss many bats, so it’s not terribly surprising that the Tribe staff is last in the league in strikeouts. Pavano was erratic and homer-prone; the team eventually dealt him to the Twins in early August. Reyes made just eight starts before needing TJ surgery. Carmona put up a 7.42 ERA through 12 starts before being sent all the way down to A-ball to iron out the mechanical problems which first took hold last year. Despite an initially promising return, he’s been pummeled for a 10.72 ERA over his last five starts. To that unhappy brew, add a parade of lefties (Zach Jackson, Jeremy Sowers, David Huff) each more hittable than the last, and rough introductions for a couple of mid-season acquisitions (Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco), and you’ve got a rotation whose ERA bests only Baltimore’s, but without the high-upside prospects which mitigate the Orioles’ showing.

Definitely a pair of disappointments, though I’m more optimistic about the Brewers’ chances of rebounding than I am of the Indians, who appear headed for a very lean year, with or without the braintrust that got them into this mess.