Clearing the Bases

Episode I–in which a frazzled graphic designer cleans house on a bunch of topics…

• Three weeks ago, I (along with a few others around the web) examined Derek Jeter’s struggles. Since then, he’s been playing like the one in the catalog, hitting .429 (33/77), scoring 21 runs, and playing error-free shortstop. He’s raised his batting average 20 points and his OPS 42 points. I’d like to think my column is responsible, but a more likely explanation is those batting tips I emailed him.

• On Monday, the day after its induction ceremony, the Hall of Fame announced sweeping changes on the way it elects members. For one thing, the Veterans Committee, a fifteen-member crew which has been the source of most of the questionable selections to Cooperstown, has been disbanded. It will be replaced by a new Veterans Committee consisting of all of the Hall’s living members, the broadcasters in the Hall via the Frick Award, and the writers in the Hall via the Spink Award. The New committee will vote on players every other year starting in 2003, and umpires, managers, and executives every four years. Additionally, the candidacies of several players who slipped off the writers’ ballot after failing to receive 5 percent of the vote will have their eligibility restored. This includes a couple of players I mentioned in my quick list a few days ago, Lou Whittaker and Ted Simmons (I did not realize that Simmons had suffered that fate when I made my list). I’m happy to see their candidacies revived, as I am for those of Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans, and several others. They may not all be worthy, but they are worthy of more than a single vote for consideration.

While the changes don’t solve all of the problems with the Hall of Fame (then again, what would?), I do think these are steps in the right direction. The 15-man Veteran’s Committee, while it righted some wrongs, has been guilty of admitting a number of substandard candidates over the course of its history. The small number of people wielding great power has made it possible for crony-ism to dictate who gets elected, and the lack of public accountability has shrouded some of the politicking that goes into those elections. The new system, whatever its flaws, will make it harder for a few men to wield so much power over who gets in, and making the voting results public will bring greater scrutiny to the process.

ESPN’s Jayson Stark details the positives of the new system. Over at Baseball Primer, Eric Enders, a former researcher at the Hall of Fame library, weighs in with a more balanced look at the pros and cons of the new system. The Baseball Primer discussion of the topic has weighed in with spirited defenses of several candidacies, as well as the standards of what constitutes a Hall of Famer.

• Speaking of the Hall of Fame, Baseball Primer’s Don Malcolm reports on an organization which is focusing on a more iconoclastic type of shrine, the Baseball Reliquary. The Reliquary (as in “a depository for relics”) combines a collection of offbeat objects (a cigar smoked by Babe Ruth, a humanitarian award once given to Ty Cobb) with a shrine full of offbeat personalities. It is “dedicated to fostering an appreciation of the historical development of baseball and its interaction with American culture by the preservation and exhibition of artifacts related to the National Pastime,” according to its home page. This year’s inductees into its Shrine of the Eternals were Satchel Paige, Jim Bouton, and Jimmy Piersall, and past inductees include Bill Veeck, Curt Flood, Marvin Miller, Pam Postema, Dock Ellis, and Moe Berg (the backup catcher turned WWII spy whose unusual life was thoroughly chronicled in The Catcher Was a Spy by Nicholas Dawidoff). I can get behind any organization that recognizes such a diverse and noteworthy collection of honorees as those–and what a reading list it would make!

According to Malcolm, who was in attendance at the induction dinner, Bouton spoke at length and to great delight at the ceremony. His address, as with the rest of the ceremony, will be available on videotape. Having met Bouton and conversed with him at length, I’m salivating at the opportunity to hear what he had to say about the state of the game.

• Speaking of Don Malcolm, another piece of his on the new series of stamps issued by the United States Post Office is worth a look. The series commemorates great ballparks, and includes Yankee Stadium, Ebbetts Field, Fenway Park, Tiger Stadium, Wrigley Field, the Polo Grounds, Shibe Park, Forbes Field, Crosley Field, and Comiskey Park. Don has scanned each of them in and enlarged them, providing descriptions of the details on each one. Worth it for the visuals alone.

Beer-Spurting Broadcast Blues

In general, I hold the Yankees television commmentators on the Madison Square Garden Network in high regard. Jim Kaat and Ken Singleton are knowledgable veterans with 40 years of big-league playing experience between them. They are masters of tone, perfect for tuning in day after day after day, with a solid command of the action, a good sense of humor, and the big-picture perspective of those who have done their homework. They’re not the types to drone on like Fox’s Tim McCarver, or toady up the Boss in the manner of Bobby Murcer and his down-homerisms.

But during the first couple of innings last night, with Kaat absent and the much more annoying Al Trautwig subbing, the announcers made two comments which, had I been drinking, would have left me spurting beer through my nose. The first was that Tino Martinez was worthy of MVP consideration. This was Trautwig’s idea, and it would be laughable if it weren’t so ignorant. While Tino has had some big hits here and there (his two game-winning home runs last weekend certainly helped), there are at least 20 hitters more worthy of the award in the AL. Not to mention the fact that Martinez isn’t even close to being the MVP of this Yankees team. Derek Jeter, Bernie Wiliams, and Jorge Posada are all significantly more productive hitters. They all play significantly more important positions defensively, and while Jeter and Posada have had their problems with D (compared to Tino’s near-Gold Glove caliber play at first base), they all would still come out among the league’s elite at their positions even if defense were factored in. Tino’s D might get him back to being a league-average first baseman at best. See below for more abuse of Martinez.

The second beer-spurting assertion (had I been drinking) was that Paul O’Neill should stick around for another season. This one belonged to the normally level-headed Singleton. While I have great respect for O’Neill’s pinstriped career, he is barely average among right-fielders in terms of his overall production. He had an early-season power spurt, but his On Base Percentage has been in steady decline–73 points over the past five seasons, to a meager .338 this year. Yes, his new-found base-stealing prowess (20/23) has shown an adaptability I didn’t think he had. But he’s pathetic against lefties again (.240 AVG, 688 OPS, 1 home run in 114 PA), and if he does continue to play beyond this season, it should be in a significantly reduced role. Plus, I’ve seen too many times when he’s flat-out failed to hustle coming out of the batter’s box, turning would-be doubles into singles or putouts at second. That’s the look of a man in search of the finish line. If O’Neill retires, he deserves a sendoff worthy of what he’s meant to this franchise. But let’s not beg him to stay for the sake of nostalgia. It simply costs too many dollars and too many runs.

Flogging Tino

On Friday night, I was watching the Yankees game with my brother, who lives in New York City as I do, but is not a Yanks fan. The Yankees trailed the Angels 3-2 in the 7th inning when Tino Martinez came to bat. As the announcers made a remark about how Tino had been swinging the bat as well as he did in 1997, when he hit 44 home runs, I went into my standard anti-Tino tirade. Sure enough, on the second pitch, Tino jacked one into right field for the eventual game-winning home run.

Saturday, he vicitimized the Angels with another two-run shot in the eighth inning, for his fifth home run in his past six games, and 17th in his last 36–an impressive streak, no doubt. But before he’s annointed the Yankees MVP or worse, re-signed to a big contract (he’s a free agent after this season), I wanted to take a look at his numbers and show just where they fit in.

Tino’s hitting .262, with 26 home runs and 86 RBI. He’s sixth in the league in the latter category, among perennial studs like Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez (apparently it helps to have your name end in a “z” if you want to drive in runs), along with Jim Thome, who just crushes a lot, and Brett Boone, who’s having the most amazing career year aberration of anybody since Brady Anderson hit 50 HRs in 1996. It’s impressive company, but don’t let anybody tell you Tino belongs in this class of hitters.

There are two reasons for this: On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage. Here are his numbers alongside the ten other top RBI men in the league. Rather than OPS, I’ve included their Slugging Percentage * On Base Percentage, because it correlates better with their productivity (see here, because I’ve discussed this before).

            HR  RBI   AVG   OBP   SLG  SL*OB

BBoone      25  102  .329  .362  .574   .208

MRamirez    33   97  .313  .413  .631   .261

JGonzalez   27   95  .344  .396  .644   .255

ARodriguez  30   93  .317  .394  .590   .232

Thome       34   92  .301  .430  .651   .280

TMartinez   26   86  .262  .307  .487   .150

JaGiambi    25   82  .328  .460  .631   .290 

GAnderson   20   82  .282  .302  .462   .140 

Palmeiro    28   78  .266  .377  .532   .201 

Posada      19   75  .310  .400  .548   .219

Sweeney     23   75  .305  .367  .560   .206 

Glaus       29   73  .251  .362  .532   .193

Two hitters stick out like sore thumbs on this list–Martinez and Anaheim’s Garret Anderson, both of whom have low OBP and SLG. Neither of them is nearly as productive a hitter as the others here. Their reputations are inflated by their power numbers, but in truth, they’re contributing less to their teams’ offenses than their teammates on this list, Posada in Tino’s case and Glaus in Anderson’s case.

There are plenty of other measures which will tell you the same story. Here is another table, with the players listed in the same order as above:

             OWP   EqA    RAP

BBoone      .717  .327    35.6

MRamirez    .806  .346    35.4

JGonzalez   .786  .346    31.7

ARodriguez  .758  .336    47.9

Thome       .834  .358    37.5

TMartinez   .530  .271   -11.5

JaGiambi    .847  .371    47.2

GAnderson   .476  .264   -10.6

Palmeiro    .708  .311    12.1

Posada      .738  .323    31.5

Sweeney     .707  .311    12.4

Glaus       .652  .305    20.4

OWP is Offensive Winning Percentage, which will tell you, using Runs Created, how often a theoretical team composed of 9 of the same player would win, based on that level of offensive production. Again Martinez and Anderson stick out like sore thumbs. The others are all offensive dynamos, whereas Tino is barely adequate, and certainly not championship quality as a hitter.

The other two columns are taken straight from Baseball Prospectus’s figures. EqA is a statistic which puts a player’s total offensive performance on a scale similar to batting average. It’s adjusted for home park and league offensive levels, which is nice when you’re putting the stuff in perspective (by contrast OWP is not park adjusted). It’s a bitch to calculate, which is why I don’t refer to it more often; fortunately, Baseball Prospectus does all the number-crunching for us here. The last column is Runs Above Position, which tells us how many runs better or worse than the average player at his position a player is (it comes from the same galaxy of statistics as EqA, in the same way that OWP and Runs Created come from the Bill James quadrant of the statistical galaxy).

And here is where we get to the root of the problem. Tino Martinez is hot right now, but he’s still well below average for a first baseman in terms of his total productivity. First basemen are generally among the big power studs in any lineup; they’re good hitters who draw a lot of walks (which shows both plate discipline and a respect from opposing hurlers) and hit for a lot of power. Tino isn’t in the same class with Giambi, Thome, and Palmeiro. He isn’t in the same class as Carlos Delgado, Tony Clark, John Olerud, Mike Sweeney, Doug Mientkiewicz, Brian Daubach or Paul Konerko. He ranks behind all of those guys in OWP–Konerko brings up the rear of that pack at .621, and Tino’s a long taxi ride away at .530.

Similarly, he’s 21th among major league 1Bs in EqA, and he’s used far more outs than any other first baseman in the majors. Tino’s used 316 outs; the next five are Richie Sexson, 299, Jeff Bagwell 295, Mike Sweeney 293, Rafael Palmeiro and Lee Stevens, 291 apiece. Some of those guys are excellent hitters, others are offensive leaks. Tino, based on the Prospectus’s overall numbers, is much closer to a leak.

Let’s get back to that 1997 season of Tino’s, and while we’re at it, let’s throw in every season in between (unfortunately, I don’t have EqA or RAP from seasons past because the Baseball Prospectus player card server has been down for some time):

       HR   RBI   AVG   OBP   SLG  SL*OB   OWP

1997   44   141  .296  .371  .577   .214  .710

1998   28   123  .281  .355  .505   .179  .605   

1999   28   105  .263  .341  .458   .156  .521

2000   16    91  .258  .328  .411   .135  .434

2001   26    86  .262  .307  .487   .150  .530 

Does anybody still want to make the argument that Tino is back to where he was in 1997? He’s been rotting away like a tree with termites since then; not only is he not the hitter he was in ’97, he’s not even the hitter he was in ’98. The consistency of his decline over the past four seasons is alarming, and it’s only this year that he’s picking it up at all. What’s amazing is that he’s only 33–past his peak, but still in what should be his productive years as a ballplayer.

Okay, enough flogging. I would like to point out a couple more things as we mop up the blood:

1. Tino’s past month has done quite a bit to dig him out of the early season hole he’s created for himself. Two weeks ago, his OWP was at .505, for example, and if he continues to hit the way he has been, his stats will improve. But unbelievably, his OBP during this hot streak has actually fallen–he’s walked three times in the last month, a sign that the pitchers aren’t afraid of him. Also, he has one intenional walk on the year, compared to 14 in ’97.

2. The Yankees offense as it currently exists is somewhat nontraditional in that they get a lot of productivity from up-the-middle players–specifically Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams–and less from their corner players (1B, 3B, LF, RF). Because of how productive that trio is–they’re the Yankees best hitters, by far–they’ve been able to withstand the drag Tino (among others) puts on their offense. And yes, it is a drag–the team’s OWP is .549, nineteen points higher than Tino’s.

So don’t be fooled. Tino’s hot right now, and the Yanks have certainly taken advantage of his timely hitting. But he’s hardly an elite hitter by *any* analysis, and if the Yankees think otherwise during the offseason, they will be tossing tens of millions of dollars down the drain. As the great sabermetrician Flavor Flav put, “Don’t believe the hype.”

Hall of Fame Inductions

I didn’t see today’s Hall of Fame induction ceremony, except for about 2 minutes of highlights on SportsCenter. But I have no beef with any of the three players (Bil Mazeroski, Kirby Puckett, and Dave Winfield) who got in–I’d have voted for each as well, despite Puckett’s shortened career and Mazeroski’s defense-based qualifications.

Below I present a list of fifteen eligible players (as of next year’s election) who, in my opinion, belong in the Hall of Fame, along with three non-players who should be there as well. I’m not going to set up arguments for any of them right now, but I will return to this issue in an expanded form at a later date.

I’ve listed two numbers, both of which are based on systems created by Bill James, and slightly revised by Sean Forman at baseball-reference.com, which presents these numbers on its player pages. Both are tests which reward the types of things Hall of Fame voters look at. The first is the Hall of Fame Standards. It’s weighted so that the average HOFer scores 50 points based on various career totals (the complete list of critera is found here). The second is the Hall of Fame Monitor. This system attempts to assess the likelihood of a particular player’s election to the Hall. It’s weighted so that 100 points signifies a likely Hall of Famer, and is based both on single-season and career accomplishments (the complete list of criteria is here).

Anyway, here’s my list, with each player linked to his page on baseball-reference.com.

Bert Blyleven: 50.0 / 113.5

Gary Carter: 42.2 / 135.5

Andre Dawson: 43.6 / 118.5

Goose Gossage: 19.0 / 118.0

Tommy John: 44.0 / 100.0

Jim Kaat: 44.0 / 119.5

Jack Morris: 39.0 / 108.5

Dale Murphy: 35.4 / 115.5

Jim Rice: 43.0 / 147.0

Ron Santo: 40.5 / 88.0

Ted Simmons: 44.0 / 125

Ozzie Smith: 35.0 / 143.0

Bruce Sutter: 17.0 / 87.0

Alan Trammell: 41.0 / 119.0

Lou Whittaker: 43.0 / 93.0

Nonplayers:

Marvin Miller

Bill James

Buck O’Neill

I saw all of the players except for Santo, who is, in several peoples’ opinions, the most qualified candidate not to get in. Some of these guys will get in eventually; at least one will not–Whittaker failed to draw enough support during his first appearance on the ballot, a shameful oversight by the BBWAA.

Various people have offered their proposals to fix the Hall of Fame in order to correct for the errors of inductions past. This article by Slate’s Bryan Curtis is an attempt to reform the Hall. Calling the current Hall “a bottomless pit of mediocrity,” Curtis attempts to set some benchmarks for admission. First are the objective measures; Curtis suggests a few metrics which automatically guarantee entry–300 wins, 2873 hits (Babe Ruth’s total) and 493 Home Runs (Lou Gehrig’s total). Then Curtis suggests two players as a baseline for further determining who should get in, Roy Campanella and Don Drysdale–anybody better than them, as determined by the analysis of a board of seven baseball historians and mathematicians, should get in. Curtis re-enshrines 136 players already in, evicts 52, and adds another five, including the two black sheep, Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Another impressive effort is the Baseball Immortals web site. Writer Lee Sinins’ doesn’t list his criteria for induction, but he’s creating a page for each player on his list. For now, 45 players have pages which present their basic stats along with various sabermetric measures, and extensive lists of their accomplishments; eventually they all will. Sinins even goes so far as to write (or rewrite) their plaques. There’s definitely some food for thought here, though in my opinion, mixing in players who are not yet eligible (though they may be sure things) confuses the issue a bit.

Like I said, I’ll revisit this issue somewhere down the road…

Mussina: the Curse of the Futility Infielder?

A few weeks ago, I reported on how the great Mariano Rivera has stumbled during the times I’ve seen him in person this year. Today, I discovered that I hold a hex on another key Yankees pitcher, Mike Mussina. I’ve been to four games he’s pitched this season, and the Yanks have lost all four; what’s worse, Mussina’s gotten bombed. Here’s his cumulative line: 0-3, 6.65 ERA, 23 IP, 27 H, 17 ER, 4 BB, 22 K. That even includes seven innings of shutout ball against the Mets on July 7. His record in all other games is 11-6, 3.42 ERA.

There’s no day-night split which explains this trend the way it does when it comes to Rivera; in fact the opposite is true. Mussina’s ERA is 3.22 in the day (a scary 1.06 without me in the building!), and 4.66 at night (4.69 without me). Go figure.

If the Yankees rotation stays in place over the next three turns, I’m scheduled to see Mussina face the Seattle Mariners on August 18. God forbid the Yanks should fall behind the Red Sox in the next two weeks, but I’d consider trading my tickets if that were the case. Like the veteran slugger who knows he should sit against the occasional tough lefty, we’ve all got to do our part to help our team.

“He was going on his ass. We were going to drill him.”

Milwaukee Brewers manager Davey Lopes earned himself a two-game suspension for those words, which were aimed at San Diego Padres outfielder Rickey Henderson. Henderson had just stolen second base in the seventh inning, with a 12-5 lead. An enraged Lopes came out of the dugout to tell Henderson he could expect retribution if he remained in the game. Padres manager Bruce Bochy removed Rickey before the Brewers pitchers had a chance to make good on their threat.

Lopes’ line is definitely in the running for soundbite of the year, and it’s the kind of old-school tough talk that makes for great copy. But when he accused Henderson of breaking one of baseball’s unwritten rules–stealing a base while having a sizeable lead–he sounded more out of touch than old-school. These days, even a seven-run lead isn’t safe; just ask the Houston Astros, who squandered a six-run lead in the ninth inning to the Pittsburgh Pirates the day before. Lopes’ action was hypocritical–his own team has done the same thing earlier this year–and out of line (though it still wasn’t as surprising as hearing Rickey Henderson talk about the incident in the first person).

But given the Brewers’ woeful bats (poor Harvey Kuenn must be rolling in his grave), and their six-week tailspin (10-31), perhaps Lopes was just looking for a vacation. Seven runs is a huge obstacle for a team that doesn’t get on base much (their .315 OBP is the worst in baseball), or have too many weapons–for that Lopes can thank the Selig regime, which seems set on proving that a small-market team can’t competently build a winning franchise.

Lopes was the model player of my youth, so it pains me to see him become the object of ridicule now. He was an excellent leadoff hitter, a smart base-stealer (he once set a record with 38 consecutive steals, and late in his career would post seasons like 47 out of 51 in steals), even a Gold Glove winner. Captain of the Dodgers, he spoke on the players’ behalf when coach Junior Gilliam died of a brain hemorrhage during the 1978 playoffs, then starred in a losing cause in the World Series, hitting three home runs. He was the first of the famous Dodger infield to lose his job, supplanted at 36 by Steve Sax and then traded to Oakland. Not surprisingly, he stuck around for several more seasons, playing the sage veteran for the division-winning Cubs (’84) and Astros (’86).

Through his career as a player and coach, Lopes always seemed gruff and no-nonsense, the kind of guy willing to tell you exactly how far to shove it if the occasion merited. That trait probably cost him a few managerial opportunities. It hasn’t cost him this one, but if the Brewers’ fortunes don’t reverse, it won’t matter anyway.

The Origins of Baseball

I couldn’t resist posting this editorial cartoon. It appeared in the New York Times Op-Ed page on July 14, the same week it was reported that a librarian at NYU had discovered two references to the game of “base ball” in an 1823 newspaper. The cartoon is by Barry Blitt, and I assume the copyright is held by the New York Times or Blitt, or some agent thereof–basically, somebody besides me (so please don’t sue).

Junior Achievements

In the wake of my little pot-shot at Ken Griffey, Jr. during my house-cleaning column (I admit it, I do love to kick whiny superstars when they’re down), I wanted to examine one aspect of Griffey’s career a little more closely. In his Seattle days, Griffey was touted as the player who could break Hank Aaron’s career record of 755 home runs. But his stock has fallen in that department, just as it has with regards to his once-sunny disposition (I should point out before I move on that Griffey is still a fantastic ballplayer when healthy, and I admire his skills if not his demeanor).

In one of his early Baseball Abstracts, Bill James introduced a formula which he referred to as “the Favorite Toy,” but which now travels under the more dignified name of the Career Assessment forumla. Based on a player’s age and established level of production, James could estimate a player’s chances of achieving various career milestones or breaking records. The Toy is useful as a radar screen showing which players have a shot at which achievements, but it ain’t the most scientific formula in the world–that’s why he called it a toy, after all.

Anyway, using James’s formula to calculate Griffey’s chance of reaching 756 HRs, we can trace the arc of his career. And I’m happy to report that somebody already has. A bold soul named Ron Smith has a page where he has done Favorite Toy projections for the various milestones and records; the figures below are based on his calculations (with a few exceptions which I’ll explain afterwards). This is the progression of Griffey’s chances:

Year  Age   HR (career) Prob.

1993  23.6  45 (132)     3.0%

1994  24.6  40 (172)     8.8 

1995  25.6  17 (189)     ---

1996  26.6  49 (238)     8.2

1997  27.6  56 (294)    23.4

1998  28.6  56 (350)    40.4

1999  29.6  48 (398)    40.0

2000  30.6  40 (438)    31.2

2001a 31.6   8 (446)     ---

2001b 31.6  30 (468)    15.6

The last two projections are mine. They show a) where Griffey would be if he took his ball and went home, as he threatened to do this weekend, and b) if we assume that he will suddenly catch fire and hit 22 HR in his next 58 games (a 61 HR pace for a full season), leaving him with 30 on the year.

Since the established level in the formula is a weighted average of his output the last three seasons (3-2-1), a season without significant progress can cause a probablity to drop off the charts. That’s what happened in 1995, when injuries limited Junior to 17 HR, and that’s what would happen if he packed it in today. And while I do think Griffey’s chances are better than 15% (assuming he was just having a bad hair day and the hammy heals during the offseason), the formula does not. Even two seasons in a row (plus the rest of this one) at his career level (42 HR per 162 games) will only bring his chances up to 18%. But a third–which would clear this season’s aberation from the formula–would rachet him back to 37%. At which point he would be 35 and still in need of 189 HRs. Clearly, it would behoove him to get hot soon.

By the next time Smith runs his numbers, Griffey won’t even be the leading candidate anymore. That honor will belong to Sammy Sosa, who was at 29.8% after 2000. At 35 HRs and counting, Slammin’ Sammy is right on target for his established level of 57 HRs. If he hits that many, his estimate climbs to 33.6%.

But those rooting for surly second-generation superstars need not fear, for Barry Bonds is on his way. Though he’s never cracked Smith’s list (which shows all of the players since 1980 who had a probability greater than zero) before this season, if he reaches 70 HRs, he’ll be on the map at 25.7%. Heck, Griffey may fall behind Alex Rodriguez (12.5% entering this season), too. Ain’t it a bitch being Ken Griffey, Jr.?

Yes, it probably is. Breaking Hank Aaron’s home run record is not the be-all and end-all of what makes a great player. Junior, who received death threats as a byproduct of his trade demands, probably doesn’t need the added attention of a challenge at the record. And he’s not even close enough to merit that kind of scrutiny. So I will try to muster some sympathy for the man, and hopefully get back to enjoying the talents that made him so engaging in the first place. At least until the next time he starts whining.

Cleaning House

Having traveled the past two weekends and been bogged down with work in between, I haven’t had as much time to keep up with my web log. But I wanted to jot down a few thoughts on some recent trades and other baseball news before it becomes too old. So consider this something of a house-cleaning.

Fred McGriff to Chicago: Finally! Apparently two weeks of reality therapy was enough for McGriff to realize that finishing his career in Tampa Bay was not an option. Chicago gets a significant upgrade at first base, where Matt Stairs, Ron Coomer, and Julio Zuleta have been underwhelming. Stairs’ numbers there aren’t horrid, but Don Baylor sat him against lefties, leaving two guys who couldn’t find the Mendoza line with a map and compass (all stats as 1B only):

          PA   AVG   HR  RBI   OBP   SLG

Stairs   257  .265   10   39  .385  .475

Coomer    66  .197    1    5  .254  .279

Zuleta    91  .190    3   11  .266  .310

Total    414  .236   14   55  .338  .404

McGriff  306  .332   17   53  .400  .565

The deal was finally announced with the Devil Rays receiving Manny Aybar and a player to be named later, most likely AAA shortstop Jason Smith, who is on the DL right now but is nothing special when he’s not (.233 AVG/.271 OBP/.367 SLG). I’m still surprised Tampa Bay GM Chuck LaMar couldn’t extract more from one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. Wait, I take that back–I’m not surprised at all, given how poorly the Rays have fared with LaMar at the helm.

Jermaine Dye to Oakland: I’m not sure which is more impressive–the bold move Oakland made by trading two prospects to get Dye, or the way Royals GM Allard Baird was fleeced by A’s GM Billy Beane and Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd. As Gary Huckaby said over on Baseball Prospectus, “Should the Royals even pay to have a phone system? They’d be better off without one. Why doesn’t Baird just send a kidney to Beane?”

First, the A’s: they have no chance to catch the Mariners in the AL West race, but they’re only five games behind Minnesota in the Wild Card race. It’s like a poker game; Billy Beane tosses a couple of chips into the pot, selects a couple of new cards, and emphatically declares his team “in.” Dye is in the midst of a sub-par year, but the previous two seasons he’s been a stud, averaging .308/30/119. He’s locked up through next season, contract-wise. The deal means Jason Giambi is staying put, at least until the end of the year, but it’s questionable whether it gives them a better shot at re-signing him. After all, Damon’s $7.1 million will come off the books (given his free-agency), but Dye, who’s eligible for arbitration, figures to at least double his $3.8 million salary. Giambi passed up Oakland’s offer of $90 million over 6 years due to the lack of a no-trade clause; his price will only go up as the season progresses, meaning the A’s certainly won’t be able to keep everybody. Still, they’re a smart organization with a trio of excellent young pitchers in Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder–they’ll find a way to remain competitive.

The Royals: I don’t think there’s anybody besides Baird who can put a positive spin on this one. All Baird has to show for one of his best players is an overpaid glove-man, Neifi Perez, to add to a growing collection that includes Rey Sanchez. Now the talk is that Sanchez will be dealt to the Atlanta Braves, who are looking for a shortstop since Rafael Furcal went down for the season. Thus the Royals would get younger and less expensive, but no less slick-fielding at short. But if they think Perez will hit significantly better than Sanchez, they are in for a rude awakening:

                        PA   AVG  HR  RBI   OBP   SLG

Perez (Coors '98-01)  1293  .315  28  167  .341  .474

Perez (Away '98-01)   1126  .248  10  115  .288  .340

Sanchez (career)      3970  .276  12  291  .314  .341

Turk Wendell to Philadelphia: No analysis to offer here, just a fond farewell to one of the city’s most eccentrically entertaining players. I’ll miss ol’ 99 and his bizarre collection of habits and superstitions: jumping over the foul lines, brushing his teeth between innings, wearing the teeth of animals he’s hunted, nearly freezing to death hunting those animals, signing contracts where all of the numbers are a penny short, to keep the figures at $.99, giving up game-ending home runs… So long, Turk.

Ken Griffey Jr. Whines, Again: So what else is new? It’s gratifying to watch Griffey wallow miserably in the bed which he’s made for himself. He whines because he wants to leave Seattle to play closer to home. He whines because he finally gets to choose his city, only to find his salary severely hampers the team’s ability to field a competitive team (it doesn’t help that he signs with a mid-market club which throws around nickels like they’re manhole covers). He whines because they attempt to break up that team of underpaid underachievers and retool. He probably whines when he does long division and gets a remainder. Grrrr…

Deion Sanders Pulls A Rare Double: On Friday, Neon Deion officially retired from football. On Saturday, he was released by the AAA Syracuse Sky Chiefs (Toronto affiliate), the second team to drop him this season during his so-called comeback, during which he proved that he couldn’t hit sand if he fell off a camel. Next up, we’ll strap him to a rocket and shoot him straight into the sun. So long, sucker.

Support Your Local Batting Cages

I’m back from Milwaukee, where I enjoyed a wonderful weekend OD’ing on baseball, pork products, humidity, and the hospitality of the Hardt family, my hosts. Aside from my visit to Miller Park (which I’ll report on soon), the highlight of my trip came on Sunday afternoon, when I paid a visit to the batting cages at Hegan’s Field of Dreams, only a few blocks from the Hardt house. Mike Hegan, the proprietor, is a former major-leaguer who played most of his career in Milwaukee; the arcade-style Field of Dreams included an exhibit of his Brewers and A’s uniforms (he was a member of the 1972 World Champions), and a blowup of his Seattle Pilots baseball card, as well as several batting cages.

I don’t recall the details of the last time I stepped into a batting cage, but I do remember feeling somewhat humiliated. Several foul tips, some stingers off the hands, and very few solid whacks. That was around ten years ago, and since then, my only swings have come with a whiffle-ball bat playing Home Run Derby in a Northampton back yard. So I was somewhat nervous about not only taking a trip to Hegan’s, but doing so in the company of my girlfriend Andra, her older brother Aaron, and her parents, Aaron Sr. and Aune (pronounced “aw-nee”). They’ve championed this web site since its inception, but there’s a reason I call it The Futility Infielder–I was never exactly a wiz with the bat.

As it was, I had a blast in what turned into quite the family outing. All of us, including the ladies, took our turns in the cage (Andra had played softball in her youth, with Aune as her coach; they won three straight Rainbow Softball League titles in Milwaukee). Each round of 14 balls cost $1.25, and each ball–a durable dimpled plastic, like an oversize golf ball–was fired from a distance of about 40 feet. We started on slow-pitch softballs, mashing them around to build our confidence. Our success on the slow baseballs (40 MPH, according to an employee) steeled us to try a round on the medium pitch (50 MPH), with slightly less respectable results.

I felt quite a rush each time I stepped into the batter’s box. Settling into a compact crouch stance (think Chuck Knoblauch) I found myself doing my Stargell windmill, just like in Little League, only faster, in time with the rhythm of the machines. Combined with the sweltering heat (it had to be almost 90 degrees in time), I soon found myself drenched with sweat. But I didn’t mind, as I connected with pitch after pitch, whiffing only occasionally, lashing some very satisfactory liners into the nettings of the cages, and hamming it up by menacingly pointing my bat at the pitching machine when it issued the obligatory brush-back pitches (two per round, letter-high and inside).

After we’d finished the medium pitch round, Aune admitted that she wanted to try the very fast machine (80 MPH). Ever the inquiring mind (not to mention quite the trooper), she explained, “I want to gain an appreciation for how fast that ball is going and how hard it is to hit when I see the games.” So she, Aaron, and I shuttled in and out of the fast-pitch cage like kamikaze pinch-hitters. Facing four pitches apiece, none of us managed so much as a foul tip. Each time, the ball hit the net’s protective padding with a loud “thwack” that reminded me of an unsuspecting bug splattering on the windshield of a speeding car. The close distance, poor lighting, and lack of visual cues had something to do with it–at that speed and distance, you practically need to start your swing before you actually see the ball. Not exactly a recipe for success, but a good reminder of the distance between a weekend warrior and a major league hitter.

I took one more turn on the slow baseball machine after my four-pitch ordeal, satisfied that I’d at least found some level at which I felt competent at swinging the bat. I don’t expect my agent will get any phone calls from clubs seeking an extra right-handed bat for the stretch run (no, Chuck LaMar, I don’t know the way to Tampa Bay), but I’m glad I got at least a small taste of just how difficult it is to hit a baseball again. At roughly $5 per hour per person, it’s cheap entertainment, a moderate amount of exercise, a serious jolt of adrenaline, and a hell of a good time.